Early Season evaluation: Andrew Wiggins

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Overview - As we all know, Andrew Wiggins was the featured asset in the Love trade. He went from potentially winning a title as a role player for the Cavs to potentially winning 15 games as a featured player for the Wolves, yay! Despite the lack of team success, he's clearly getting more minutes and touches than he ever would have received in Cleveland. Although in hindsight, he would not look bad as the defensive specialist in the starting lineup, guarding the opposing team's best wing and scoring opportunistically off of the playmaking of Love, LeBron, and Irving. The Cavs have shoe-horned Shawn Marion into that role instead. But I digress.....

Offense - Andrew Wiggins has struggled offensively so far, despite (or may be because of?) Flip spoon feeding him shots in isolation sets either at the elbow or low box. His 47 TS% is quite poor for an NBA wing and this is despite getting to the line a fair amount. But let's start with the good before breaking down the bad.

Wiggins' length and vertical allow him to rise up on just about anyone and get a clean shot off. He has very good form and a high release point, although he sometimes looks a bit stiff, almost as if he's trying to steer the shot in. He has shot 36% from 16 feet out to the 3 point arc and 37% from beyond the 3 point arc. Those numbers are actually not half bad, and combined with his solid form, I have to believe over time he will only get better.

Wiggins also has a quick first step, especially going to his right, which is by far his preferred path. We have seen him a number of times beat guys baseline going to his right. When he does this he has the ability to hang in the air and draw contact, sometimes getting the "and 1". As a result, his free throw rate is decent (5 FTAs per 36 minutes). When he gets stymied going right, he has a decent spin move to the left. The problem is defenders know this now and he's increasingly getting his pocket picked as opponents wait on it.

Where Wiggins struggles is in getting all the way to the basket using any other type of move that requires advanced handles or craftiness. Has anyone ever seen Wiggins do a crossover? Or how about a hesitation/change-of-pace move? He certainly has the body control and verticality to be an elite finisher and foul-drawer, but he needs to add a couple of other tricks in his bag. Having that quick first step is certainly a great start. Flip is increasingly trying to get Wiggins the ball closer to the basket, hoping that his post-up game will show more success than his face-up game.

Another area Wiggins needs to improve in - and this is seemingly the area that should be his strength - is moving without the ball. Of all our wings, he is assisted on the fewest % of his baskets. Keep in mind those other guys are playing without Rubio too! There are probably five or six times a game we see Muhammed and/or Brewer make either a basket cut (in halfcourt sets) or fill the lane (in fastbreak situations) that results in an easy layup or dunk. How often do you see Andrew Wiggins - the son of an Olympic sprinter - go all out to beat his man down the floor? The answer is almost never. One of the most athletic players in the NBA has 13 dunks so far this season. Brewer has 14, and he's borderline old by NBA standards. Shabazz has 24 and he's played nearly 300 fewer minutes!

The result of all this is that Wiggins really has to labor for his points, taking a lot of contested mid-range 2's either out of face-up or post-up isolation plays. If we weren't so short handed offensively, I'd recommend that Flip just stop running plays for Wiggins and tell him to go create his own opportunities to score and stop spoon-feeding him the ball. His percentages would look so much better if he just created better opportunities for himself while without the ball (this includes his anemic offensive rebounding as well - Corey Brewer averages more O-boards than Wiggins. How is that possible!?).

Defense - From the beginning, Wiggins has been assigned the opposing team's best wing starter. Through the first 20 games of his career, he's guarded James Harden, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and the list goes on. That's like a who's who of the best wing scorers in the NBA, past and present. That is A LOT to throw at a 19-year old rookie. And overall, he's been stellar.

Wiggins has a unique combination of length, athleticism, and desire to defend. The one component he's missing in my opinion is toughness. He needs to do a better job fighting through screens and being a bit more physical with his opponents, but otherwise, he has everything. He generally plays a disciplined, stout type of defense, without taking unnecessary gambles. Historically, this is how the best defenders play. The one area he needs to get a bit more disciplined in is staying ground-bound. He often plays his man straight-up really well, then falls for the pump fake when they have no where else to go. Guys like Kobe, Wade, Harden, etc. make a living getting guys to leave their feet so that they can jump into them and draw a foul (the official will always give them the benefit of the doubt too). But I'm confident he will get better and better at this.

As a defensive rebounder, Wiggins is averaging only 3.3 defensive rebounds per game. We could really use his help on the boards, yet he hasn't delivered. I actually think Wiggins has some pretty weak hands, as I have often seen him in the area of a rebound, only for it to squirt away from his grasp.

Summary - I love Andrew Wiggins the person. He seems like a really down-to-earth kid - more Kevin Durant than Kobe Bryant. He's already a solid defender that I think will eventually be a great defender (like 1st or 2nd all-defensive team great). What I don't see yet is a superstar in the making. He has a loooong ways to go, both in terms of raw skill development, but also in what I'd call "heart" development. It's not that I think he's totally bereft of desire, but he needs to take it from 3rd to 5th gear. 13 dunks.......I mean c'mon Drew, you can do better than that!

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

All of these evaluations have been terrific, Q. Thanks for putting your time into each one of them.

[Coolbreeze44]

Another area Wiggins needs to improve in - and this is seemingly the area that should be his strength - is moving without the ball. Of all our wings, he is assisted on the fewest % of his baskets. Keep in mind those other guys are playing without Rubio too! There are probably five or six times a game we see Muhammed and/or Brewer make either a basket cut (in halfcourt sets) or fill the lane (in fastbreak situations) that results in an easy layup or dunk. How often do you see Andrew Wiggins - the son of an Olympic sprinter - go all out to beat his man down the floor? The answer is almost never. One of the most athletic players in the NBA has 13 dunks so far this season. Brewer has 14, and he's borderline old by NBA standards. Shabazz has 24 and he's played nearly 300 fewer minutes!


Of all your analysis on Andrew, I think the above paragraph is the most accurate and pertinent. Especially the part about him busting his butt getting down the floor on the break. He just doesn't do it. He seems to always be pacing himself. His attitude seems to be - the chances of getting rewarded for hustling are remote, so I'm going to conserve my energy. Another area you hit on is his hands. They are not strong enough, even though they are relatively large. He loses a lot of balls that he gets his hands on, and it certainly contributes to the lack of dunks.

Where we disagree is I DO see a future superstar. The D is going to always be a strength, and his offense while already improving is just scratching the surface of his abilities. You were careful to say that it's fair to START making these evaluations now. For some of the guys it's more fair than some others. Andrew is one guy where ANY evaluation today is really jumping the gun.

[worldK]

Good work q. I'm more with cool in believing that andrew wiggins will be a star down the road though but very good and fair assessment of his game so far.

I would like to add that you made a good point about him always seems to be pacing himself instead of going full speed like brewer or bazz do. I attribute that to his conditioning. Keep in mind that he always guard the best wing of the opposing team and that takes a lot of energy from him. He is also a rookie that has not physically matured yet. Flip has given him a tall order of trying to slow down the best wing and at the same time being one of the top option on offense for the team. Thats a lot of responsibility being put on a 19 yr old rookie. With more nba game experience and further development of his body, I would say his stamina and endurance would improve and then we will him take huge steps forward in his game.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Wiggins is an All-World athlete. Shouldn't he be busting his ass in transition and on the glass since he can't take over games offensively (yet...hopefully)? Those are opportunities where hustle earns points. Bazz is the easiest example of this. Comes back to the issue of his mindset. He just doesn't have that dog in him, that grit to give everything he has for every possession. Settling for jumpers, not crashing the boards like he should, not running the breaks with full effort. It's just irritating to watch a player with his tools not use them to their fullest because he's somewhat soft mentally.

[worldK]

As cool said. Wiggins is a guy where any evaluation today is jumping the gun.

Wait at least two years before we say whether he has it in him to be the man. I'll wait for him to develop his body and get a full nba season under him to be in that nba condition.

The kid is 19 and being asked to defend the best wing every game and be 1 of the top option on offense. I dont see any other rookie in his draft class being asked to do more than wiggins this season. Has he done with with the efficiency you would like to see? No, but can you name 1 other rookie that can take the role wiggins has on this team and do better than him? That would be a big NO as well. Be patient with the kid. If anything, this difficult situation we are in will only accelerate his growth. Im just happy that he will be on my team when he is ready to be a star.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

The thing is, he's not supposed to be just another rookie. He's Andrew Wiggins, Canada's finest. Top high school hoops recruit. The kid who was too good to trade him for All-NBA Kevin Love. The high school phenom who wowed LeBron James at his own basketball camp. The kid who has greater stride length than Kevin Durant and quickness like Chris Paul (Sports Science). The kid who gets Kobe to see similarities between him and himself as a 19 year old.

My larger point is that there have been rookies that show star quality impact immediately. There have been plenty of guys that have been highly touted, like Wiggins has, and fall very short of reaching their ceiling as well. Many, if not all of the early stars, showed hunger/killer mentality/balls-to-the-wall effort early, and you just knew they'd be elite. Almost all of the guys who fell short showed passive behavior on the court. It's fair to say that maybe that's just him. A full season at Kansas and 20 games through his NBA career. It's disappointing AT THIS MOMENT. I'm not saying he can't right the ship and become a top-10 player in the league. I'm saying I haven't been all that impressed and I'm hesitant to call him a for sure star in this league. In no way has he shown that on the floor.

[Lipoli390]

I think Q's analysis is spot on. And I agree with Cam that Wiggins has yet to show those qualities you generally see in rookies wh go on to become stars. His tendency to be passive, the rap on him coming out of college, is the antithesis of young players who go on to be stars. I'm still holding out hope that I'm wrong. I'm hoping that his apparent tendency to be passive simply reflects his occasional rookie confusion regarding the offense and respectful deference to the vets.

But this thread reminds me of the anonymous comment by a current T-Wolves player earlier this season who said that Wiggins would already be the best player on the team if he had Corey's heart. The context of the comment was praise of Corey. The comment also speaks to Wiggins' physical gifts. But sadly, the comment also reflects a first hand account by one of Wiggins' own teammates questioning his intensity and desire.

The good news is Shabazz. He DOES have Corey's heart. and thankfully he's stronger and generally more talented than Corey. Dieng is even better news.

[whatdtcom [enjin:6685945]]

I would have to second Camden's take. I know some of you guys go to the games as well---but when I go (like 5-6 already), I see a very timid kid that's afraid to unleash his ability.

There's one play that I could remember him attacking the rim (vs. Lakers), and just turning in on and seems to skip from one block to the other one on one skip. But for the most part, he's like that lady in the original Police Academy that's super quiet---has the authorities to arrest people and dictate traffic, but doesn't until the end of the movie where she's blowing the whistle and taking charge.

I believe he can good, but he has to turn that alpha dog mindset on.

[bleedspeed]

I know a few years ago Mike Conley saw a sports psychologist and it helped him make the transition. I think we can all agree Wiggins needs to refine his skills and mentality. I think Flip is a great guy for this, but a psychologist might help him out. Below is the article about Conley.

http://www.si.com/more-sports/2010/11/03/mike-conley

Also here is a great article on FLip in the startribune today.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/wolves/285908321.html?page=2&c=y