NBA's best instant-offense threats

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11972382/marreese-speights-best-instant-offense-bench-players-nba

One basketball proverb you used to hear was that coaches preferred to start defense and bring offense off the bench. I don't know whether that is or ever has been true, yet it has always stuck with me, probably because I've always had a soft spot for instant-offense threats.

Instant-offense players are a different species than that of the sixth man, though the two jobs often overlap. Not every team has such a player. The historical prototypes are players like World B. Free, who began his career as an off-the-bench volume scorer on high-powered Philadelphia 76ers teams, and Detroit Pistons great Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson, whose nickname stemmed from his penchant for quickly heating up off the bench. Players like these can carry a team for games at a time, and yet they don't always work well with others. Because they can provide offense for reserve units that lack scoring, or can inject action into the sputtering offense of a starting unit, the very qualities that work against them in a starting role make them invaluable as reserves.

Sometimes the ego that drives an instant-offense player causes him to resist the role. Players want to start. Knicks guard J.R. Smith won the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year award just two years ago and very much falls into the Free-Johnson mold -- though in reality Smith isn't a typical anything when it comes to being an NBA personality. Smith has never really grasped the importance of the role, always stating a preference for starting. Even Clippers guard Jamal Crawford, one of the more soft-spoken and thoughtful players in the league, will admit to a preference for starting even if he knows the sixth-man role is the one for which he's best suited.

Crawford is one four players to win the NBA's sixth-man award twice, and he's on target to contend for the honor once again. In recent years, the award has trended toward instant-offense players, with Crawford, Smith, James Harden, Jason Terry, Leandro Barbosa and Ben Gordon among the winners in the past decade. According to basketball-reference.com, there have been 33 seasons since 1979-80 in which a player qualified for the scoring title while meeting the current criteria for sixth-man award eligibility and also averaged at least 22 points per 36 minutes. That's less than one per season.

This season, there are six such players.

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Marreese Speights, Golden State Warriors

Speights is averaging an incredible 28.4 points per 36 minutes, propping up the otherwise weak bench production for one of the league's best teams. The scoring clip is two points better than that of any other qualifying player in the league. The Warriors' offense has been 2.8 points per 100 possessions better with Speights on the floor, though there is a giant drop-off on the defensive end.

Yet the beauty of having elite instant offense in reserve was illustrated in Golden State's 106-101 win in Charlotte on Friday. The Warriors began the fourth quarter down six points before Speights proceeded to score all 16 of his team's points in the first seven minutes of the period. He punctuated the rally with a jumper to give the Warriors a lead they never relinquished. After the game, Speights told reporters: "When I'm in a zone, the basket looks like a swimming pool." And that's the beauty of the Free-Johnson lineage of bench scorers. When they are in the proverbial zone, they can win a game for you. When they're not, you can simply sit them.

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Gerald Green, Phoenix Suns

Green started 48 games last season, making him ineligible for sixth-man honors (to be eligible, players need to come off the bench in more games than they start). This season, he hasn't started a game on a team deep in star backcourt players. Green's playing time is down nearly seven minutes per game, but that hasn't harmed his per-unit production one iota. Green is averaging 24.2 points per 36 minutes, 4.2 points better than last season's career high. His usage rate has climbed over 29 percent and his true shooting percentage is still well over league average.

According to NBA.com/stats, only Utah's Gordon Hayward has scored more second-quarter points. All of this would be meaningless if it weren't in service of the team's bottom line, but the Suns' offense has been 4.1 points per 100 possessions better with Green on the floor.

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Lou Williams, Toronto Raptors

Williams has given a much-needed boost to the breakout Raptors by averaging 24.0 points per 36 minutes. Last season, they were outscored in second quarters. This season, they've outscored opponents by 6.9 points per 100 second-quarter possessions.

Williams has long been an underrated bench star even though he's the prototype for the role: He's a combo guard who creates a large volume of offense efficiently. Williams is more consistent than other players of his ilk, but he can still heat up in a major way, as he did in a 36-point outburst during a recent win at Cleveland. The Raptors' already-elite offensive efficiency ticks up 5.1 points with Williams in the game, and overall Toronto has been 17.8 points better when he plays.

Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix Suns

Thomas might not have expected this role after signing a big free-agent contract with the Suns last summer, but it hasn't affected his play. Thomas' 23.6 points per 36 minutes is 2.5 better than he did during his breakout season for the Kings in 2013-14, and he's done it with even better efficiency. You might wonder if Green and Thomas have been able to co-exist. Well, according to basketball-reference.com, they've shared the floor for 489 possessions, on which Phoenix has an offensive rating of 110.4, a figure 3.2 points better than its aggregate total and one that would rank sixth in the league at the team level.

Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers

This is old hat for Crawford, who would have qualified for the list last season as well. But what makes Crawford especially dangerous is his ability to integrate with the Clippers' starting unit. Among player pairs with at least 300 possessions so far, none has a better offensive efficiency than the 123.3 put up by groups headed by Crawford and Chris Paul.

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AND

Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves

And here's the surprise. At 22, Muhammad probably has many starting assignments in his future, but it's his early performance this season as a reserve that makes him worthy of them. He's averaging 22 points per 36 minutes, has a usage rate of 25.4 percent and a true shooting percentage better than average. His rebounding (7.1 boards per 36) has also been a revelation. His plus-minus numbers don't yet show an impact on the bottom line; nevertheless, Muhammad's early emergence is a bright spot for the struggling Wolves.

[Brandon BassHole [enjin:8183321]]

AND

Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves

And here's the surprise. At 22, Muhammad probably has many starting assignments in his future, but it's his early performance this season as a reserve that makes him worthy of them. He's averaging 22 points per 36 minutes, has a usage rate of 25.4 percent and a true shooting percentage better than average. His rebounding (7.1 boards per 36) has also been a revelation. His plus-minus numbers don't yet show an impact on the bottom line; nevertheless, Muhammad's early emergence is a bright spot for the struggling Wolves.

Shabazz will be the next Draymond Green. except Draymond has been starting this year due to David lees injury

[AbeVigodaLive]

AND

Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves

And here's the surprise. At 22, Muhammad probably has many starting assignments in his future, but it's his early performance this season as a reserve that makes him worthy of them. He's averaging 22 points per 36 minutes, has a usage rate of 25.4 percent and a true shooting percentage better than average. His rebounding (7.1 boards per 36) has also been a revelation. His plus-minus numbers don't yet show an impact on the bottom line; nevertheless, Muhammad's early emergence is a bright spot for the struggling Wolves.

Shabazz will be the next Draymond Green. except Draymond has been starting this year due to David lees injury

Explain. Are you comparing how they play? Or, their impact?

[Brandon BassHole [enjin:8183321]]

Green: 6'7 230lbs 24 yrs old Muhammad: 6'6 227 lbs

Both really, Draymond is superior on the defensive end while shabazz has the advantage at scoring. Now both came out of college and didn't play much their first years and are relatively the same height. Green and Shabazz have both played SG-PF three positions and both have an extremely high motor and get rebounds at a high rate.

Draymond is two years older than shabazz and this is his 3rd year and is more skilled at the PF spot than Shabazz because he knows his role where shabazz kinda floats between SF & PF due to injuries and is 1-2 inches taller than Muhammad.

Take into account that the warriors are a far superior team and Green is never the 1st or 2nd scoring option on the court and is consistently the 4th or 5th option with exception of a few games where he gets really hot and plays out of his mind. (Some Playoff games come to mind). Now Muhammad is different because he is probably the top 3 options on the court due to lack of talent on this team so is asked to do more but if he was the same age as Green I think his defense would be improved as well as his basketball IQ.

Greens:
1st year
13.4 mins .327 FG% .209 3FG% 3.3 Rebs .7 AST .3 BLK 2.9PTS
2nd
21.9 mins .407FG% .33 3FG% 5.0 REBs 1.9 AST .9 BLK 6.2PTS
3rd
21.8 mins .452 FG% .351 3FG% 7.2 REBS 3.1 AST .9 BLK 12.4PTS

Muhammads
1st year
7.8 mins .460 FG% .273FG% 1.4 Rebs .2 AST 0.0 BLK 3.9 PTS
2nd
16.5 mins .508FG% .429 3FG% 1.9REBs .6 AST .2 BLK 9.7 PTS


Due to team circumstances its a little difficult to compare the stats because the teams are opposites, but as you can see each category is increasing and they play relatively the same way based on the eye test if you have seen green play you can see similarities. Green just has a better defensive presence because he knows his role because thats how he was developed. Shabazz on the other hand I think is still in limbo on his role due to Adleman who gave him mixed signals. I see Shabazz career mirroring Greens.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Green: 6'7 230lbs 24 yrs old Muhammad: 6'6 227 lbs

Both really, Draymond is superior on the defensive end while shabazz has the advantage at scoring. Now both came out of college and didn't play much their first years and are relatively the same height. Green and Shabazz have both played SG-PF three positions and both have an extremely high motor and get rebounds at a high rate.

Draymond is two years older than shabazz and this is his 3rd year and is more skilled at the PF spot than Shabazz because he knows his role where shabazz kinda floats between SF & PF due to injuries and is 1-2 inches taller than Muhammad.

Take into account that the warriors are a far superior team and Green is never the 1st or 2nd scoring option on the court and is consistently the 4th or 5th option with exception of a few games where he gets really hot and plays out of his mind. (Some Playoff games come to mind). Now Muhammad is different because he is probably the top 3 options on the court due to lack of talent on this team so is asked to do more but if he was the same age as Green I think his defense would be improved as well as his basketball IQ.

Greens:
1st year
13.4 mins .327 FG% .209 3FG% 3.3 Rebs .7 AST .3 BLK 2.9PTS
2nd
21.9 mins .407FG% .33 3FG% 5.0 REBs 1.9 AST .9 BLK 6.2PTS
3rd
21.8 mins .452 FG% .351 3FG% 7.2 REBS 3.1 AST .9 BLK 12.4PTS

Muhammads
1st year
7.8 mins .460 FG% .273FG% 1.4 Rebs .2 AST 0.0 BLK 3.9 PTS
2nd
16.5 mins .508FG% .429 3FG% 1.9REBs .6 AST .2 BLK 9.7 PTS



While I think both guys may improve... as you note right away... Green's defense sets him apart. He's a terrific defender who can guard multiple positions WELL. That's not just because he plays on a better team... he's just better at it. And that's what gets him on the court for a winning team.

I almost always give guys who force their way into lineups on good to very good teams more credit than guys who get more run on bad teams. You seem to be giving Muhammad a pass for his teammates. I'm giving Green a plug for surpassing the play of his better teammates.

He's become an integral guy on that team. Whether it's pushing Harrison Barnes aside or even David Lee... he's making a difference with wins and losses. We have tangible evidence. All we have for Muhammad at this point is conjecture.



[Note: Putting Muhammad's very probably misleading 3 point percentage to the side seems apt here. He's made 3 of them all season. That sample size is pretty small. Why not use 3 pointers made where one guys has 27 and the other has 3?]
Due to team circumstances its a little difficult to compare the stats because the teams are opposites, but as you can see each category is increasing and they play relatively the same way based on the eye test if you have seen green play you can see similarities. Green just has a better defensive presence because he knows his role because thats how he was developed. Shabazz on the other hand I think is still in limbo on his role due to Adleman who gave him mixed signals. I see Shabazz career mirroring Greens.