so after a good dose of preseason basketball..

[Porckchop]

What's everyone's realistic expectations for a win total this year? Still holding onto 40 wins ?
I'd guess at best their a 30 win team but it's gonna be a fun team to watch.

[60WinTim]

It will be closer to 50 than to 30...

I know a number of you have just assumed injuries to guys like Pek, Bud and Martin will play a role in holding the team back. But even without the injuries, it seems the majority here don't see the loss of Love being replaced by the additions and improvements the team has made. Those additions and improvements include:

- Flip replacing Adelman.
- Pek and Dieng rotation at C (Pek and Dieng were not a rotation last year).
- Young and Bennett replacing Love and Cunningham at PF.
- A healthy Bud.
- Mo Williams.
- And the rooks, Wiggins and LaVine.

So most of you just don't see those things coming close to filling the void left by Love?

[Phenom]

They won't quite be the next 72 win team but closer to 71 wins.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I agree with PorkChop, 30 wins is probably more realistic, but it's tougher to predict this year than in years past. I'd say 30-35, but it could be as high as 45 or as low as 25. I'm not saying that to cover my bases so I can say "I predicted right!" at the end of the season, it's just there are so many changes to this team that the season could either go very well or pretty badly.


1. We've lost our second best player in franchise history, a high scorer who could stretch the floor and rebound, and who made it clear who the leader of the team was . . . but he wasn't a very good leader, and we've also added Young, who is pretty decent, to replace him, and our team chemistry already seems better without Love. And team chemistry is really important. Of course, if we lose, that chemistry could go bad again, but I think with all these new guys we've got more time before the pressure really comes down, and we definitely don't have to deal with the headache of dealing with Love.

2. We've got a new, engaged coach who has historical ties to this franchise and because he's also the head of the front office, a definite motivation to win with these guys . . . but transitions to new coaches are not always smooth, Adelman was a good offensive coach even if he was understandably thinking of other things last year, and there are questions as to how well Flip's coaching will fit with this team at this time in the NBA.

3. We've gotten younger and young players rarely make much impact in their first three years, LaVine still looks like he needs some time in the D League, Bennett has looked great in the preseason but he didn't last year, and can Wiggins live up to the hype? . . . still, Wiggins, LaVine, and Bennett are all promising players and Wiggins and Bennett (if you take the preseason) look ready to contribute already, maybe a lot, and they'll definitely energize the fan base and help us jumpstart a fresh start for the franchise.

4. Having a healthy Budinger and adding Mo Williams could give this team some veteran savvy and stretch the floor, both of which we've really needed, and Mo could end up being a closer at the end of games like we've been looking for, a guy who we can count on to put the ball in his hands down the stretch to get a bucket or find the open guy for an easy bucket . . . but could this depth actually hurt chemistry by relegating guys like JJ and LaVine to the bench, how would Rubio respond if Mo became our closing PG, and could these additional players make it harder to establish a consistent and predictable rotation so that guys know what to expect in terms of minutes?

5. Bazz could end up grumbling and Dieng could end up disappointing our high hopes this year, Bazz turning into negative energy because he doesn't get playing time and Dieng being more like preseason Dieng than last year's end of season Dieng . . . or Bazz could end up getting some playing time if there's a trade and settle into a nice role on the team, and Dieng really could continue to develop and be more like the Dieng from the end of last year. If it's the latter, then a Pek injury wouldn't hurt us too much and would actually give him a chance to develop a little more, but if Pek gets injured again and Dieng is mediocre Dieng as opposed to promising Dieng, then we could have some real depth problems down low.



In other words, I think it's really tough to predict.

We still have Rubio, Martin, Brewer, and Pek, key contributors from whom who we know what we can expect and who are all pretty good players, and I think they are the key reason we won't be a truly horrible team like in the Rambis years. We also know their ceilings though. Rubio is a ton of fun and keeps teammates happy but can't shoot, Martin should help us cover some of Love's scoring but doesn't bring a ton of other things, Brewer is a fast break waiting to happen (my favorite player by far) but limited in the halfcourt, and Pek is a machine, but you can count on him missing 15-20 games. So those guys are pretty known quantities and will ultimately be the rudder that keeps our ship moving in the right direction, even if they can't get us all the way to the Playoff Harbor (sorry).

But there are several new components that could really come together and this team could surprise people and maybe even flirt with the playoffs (which would be impressive in the West--speaking of which, anybody else think Dallas looks really good this coming year?) or they could really struggle to come together even without injuries and we could end up more like a 25 win team. I don't think we're going back to those horrible Rambis teams (which had Love, remember), but even with our key consistent pieces, the floor for this team could still be relatively low in the tough West, even if the ceiling is also relatively high with all these changes. Should make for an exciting season. I'm more interested in this season than last year's just because it seems like there are so many questions whereas last year felt like we were going to get 9th or 10th or so in the West from before the season.

[60WinTim]

Great thoughts, Drew! And the Playoff Harbor that can dock 8 boats. Sounds like a season-long theme to me!!! :)

Here's a summary of pre-season stats. Gotta love the balanced scoring!

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/stats/MIN/minnesota-timberwolves/preseason/2014

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Last year we had a long prediction thread right before the start of the season. But last year there weren't so many unknowns, and most of us felt reasonably comfortable making a wins projection. Not so this year. There is more uncertainty, and accordingly more excitement, this year than any year I can remember. Hence, Drew's 25-45 prediction is realistic. I don't know how this season is going to go, but the four-game win streak at the end of pre-season, and especially how they played throughout the roster during that stretch, has me feeling more optimistic than I was a month ago. I say 40 wins. No playoffs, but a season that we will all enjoy, and a springboard to playoffs next year.

I think Tim has posed a great discussion point: The Wolves' have one very significant loss from last year...Kevin Love... but several gains. Is it not logical to conclude that the sum of those gains offsets the loss of one player? Love was a remarkably productive offensive player, but a terrible defender and leader, so there are even some positives in replacing him. Since I have been one of the largest Love detractors on this board, it would be disingenuous of me to say his departure is going to really hurt this team. That's why I'm predicting more than ten wins more than Vegas is saying.

Tim and Drew listed some of their reasons for optimism. Here are mine.

1) Team chemistry: Young, Williams and Saunders in...Love and Adelman out. You can't underestimate the positive impact this will have on this franchise. This will be a happy, hungry team that will play hard every night. There isn't a huge difference in talent from team to team in the NBA, so often intangible factors have a lot to do with eventual success. I would argue that intangibles worked against the Wolves last year, and will work for them this year.

2) Rubio: I have seen things from Rubio this pre-season that have me believing he is ready to take a big leap forward this year. I thought of him as maybe the 15th best PG last year...he was clearly still not fully recovered from knee surgery, he couldn't shoot or finish, and he was playing in a system that didn't fit his talents. I think all three of these factors will be improved this year, and Ricky will easily be a top 10 PG. He will get to the line 6-8 times a game this year (yes, a huge increase over last year) and make a higher percentage of his mid-range jumpers, and will score closer to 15 PPG than 10.

3) Athleticism: There is no comparison in the athleticism of this squad compared to last year. Wiggins, LaVine, Young and Bennett replace Love, the Prince, and Shved, and Rubio and Bud will both be a year further away from knee surgery. This team will wear other teams out, and that will be helpful at the end of games. We saw it against Chicago a couple nights ago, and we will see it often.

4) Depth: Bloop said it well yesterday. This is the first time I can remember having a 15-man roster where I'm comfortable with anyone on the court. Injuries are always going to happen, but this roster is more injury-proof than any I can remember.

5) Flip: Adelman has had a nice career, but he had clearly checked out last year. He couldn't have been a fun coach to play for last year, and it showed in the way the team played. His lack in involvement and interest was apparent on the bench. In contrast, Flip has been ultra active in pre-season. He has really tried to make playing for the Wolves fun again, but also balances the discipline needed to make sure he gets the most out of this roster. Flip has always been a winner, and I like his assistant coaches too. Big improvement over last year.

6) Bennett: Nobody is more positive about this addition than me, and he has not disappointed in pre-season. This guy was a beast in college, and was a victim of a perfect storm of negatives in his forgettable rookie season...shoulder surgery, breathing issues and resultant weight gain. He missed his first 12 shots of the year, became a rookie laughingstock and never seemed to regain his confidence. Anybody who has watched his smooth jump shot knows what an aberration last year was. He can score in so many ways, inside and out, is a plus rebounder and defender with his size, athleticism and freakish arms, and shows a natural feel for the game when the ball comes to him. Some see Larry Johnson in his game, but I would add Karl Malone. If he can add some of the meanness these guys brought to the court, he can be a future all star.

7) Defense: While this club still has a way to go in this department, they will be much better than this year. Flip and Mitchell have stressed defense, and Flip's occasional use of the zone has been effective so far. Flip has added athleticism and length, and if they continue to play hard, this will continue to be a disruptive defensive team. Pek and Young will still be a negative inside, but Dieng and Bennett are ready to add length and rim protection inside when needed.

40 wins.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Great thoughts, Drew! And the Playoff Harbor that can dock 8 boats. Sounds like a season-long theme to me!!! :)

Here's a summary of pre-season stats. Gotta love the balanced scoring!

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/stats/MIN/minnesota-timberwolves/preseason/2014

Wow, 107 PPG and nobody ever scored 20...12 players averaging between 6.6 and 12.8! We doubled up our opponents in steals, and had far fewer TOs. I don't think we are going to be a great rebounding team, but we held our own in preseason. Our new athleticism had a big impact on defending the perimeter, as evidenced in an opponents' 32% 3-point rate. and Flip's insistence on limiting 3-pointers to "good " attempts contributed to our 38% rate...case in point, Corey only tried 4 3-pointers.

I know it's only pre-season, but the results are a blueprint for what Flip is trying to do.

[mjs34]

Great write up Drew!

My hope is that our balanced scoring will reduce the damage on injuries and make it tougher to game plan against us. With that, improved chemistry, and a little boost from Bennett, I'm thinking 40 wins might not be unreasonable. I think Tim pointed out (in another thread?) that we replaced Love/DC with Young/Bennett, so if Bennett can continue his production into the regular season we shouldn't have that much of a drop off. I am thinking our improved bench play may be enough on its own to replace Love's production. We gave up so many leads last year when the starters would sit.

Always tough to get a read from preseason though, especially considering our schedule and the injuries the Pacers have had. Playing Chicago and having them play their starters as much as they did can't help but boost the players' confidence.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I think 30 wins is our most likely outcome. We don't have a single player on the team who averages 20 per game and 2/3 of the most likely guys to hit 20 have extensive injury histories. Sure the bench got better, but the starting 5 got worse and the 5 guys on the floor at the end of games got worse for a team that struggled to close out games to begin with. I don't see how a team as young as ours wins more than 30. We have a team full of supporting cast members with no star which blurs the roles they are accustomed to playing. Throw in that the West is ungodly stacked this year and I think people are delusional that we might be close to a .500 team. Thad and Bennett may be able to get close to Love and DC's averages but they can't get close to his ceiling games of dropping over 30 points for Love alone that carried the offense on some nights. I think the starting 5 got better defensively, but not enough to make up for drop in offense because of the overall impact Love had on our offense (true stretch 4, willing passer, overall nightmare to defend). Throw in Flip's long two offense and it is going to lead to a lot of losses where the defense kept us in the game but there just isn't enough offense in the well to actually win the game.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Good points made by all here. I'll wager we'll be in the mid-to-high 30's, so I'll say 37 wins this year. I'll just add that i think while our defense may be down a bit, I belive we'll be fresh and aggressive defensively in the 4th like a couple years ago with our depth.

We'll suffer in the rebounding but watching Bennett play around the rim has given me hope we'll have a good big to bang down low and clean up when Pek is out. It really is hard to predict what this team will do. I was worried too about our 3 point production drop off, but again, seeing Thad, Mo, bud and even JJ in some cases, being able to knock those down is encouraging.

I don't wanna see a "rebuilding" 24 win team. Go Wolves!