Non-bold predictions

[apollotsg [enjin:6592798]]

I wanted to start a new thread about where we think this team will be next year and look critically at where we think we will improve and regress as a team. I have broken it down to FG%, FG% allowed, rebounding, turnovers.


Overall FG% - Tied for 7th worst FG%

1. We lost Love and that will hurt us significantly in the 1st and 3rd quarters but he was garbage in the 4th, he was .386/302 - his 3rd quarter numbers were only slightly better. (Looking back at his numbers I think Adelman really misused him and wore him out pretty much every game). Thad replaces him, his shooting a volume are close but not at the same level, especially 3 point shooting. I am not sure what Thad we will get, he has had 3 coaches who had him fill 3 very different roles. Will we get the high % shoot that who is not the focal point or will we get a 3 point chucker, and a stretch F with efficient all around shooting - I just dont know. I will say this - he is the opposite of Love when it comes to shooting in the 4th quarter, he gets it done (in 10-11 he shot .581 in the 4th with high volume).

2. We gained Wiggins who will push Brewer to the bench. I don't think he matches Brewers total FG% of last year, and I also think Brewer will miss those 2 lob passes a game from Love. Wiggins can only be better than Brewer at 3 point shooting.

3. The rest - Rubio, Hummel, Budinger and Berea are just horrid. I don't see any of them getting better. We added Levine and Bennett to the mix as well. Does Flip change the offense to a more efficient system that isn't based on out pacing the opponent? I suspect that he does and it helps a lot and Rubio has gotten better each year.

I see us staying about the same, I think Flip uses a more efficient offense that offsets some of Loves great 1 and 3rd quarter shooting.




Allowed FG% - Tied for 2nd worst

1. We got rid of Love and replaced him with Thad. I have not found a youtube video of any player laughing on camera about Thad not playing defense. Thad faced far fewer shots than Love did in the paint and I am not sure why that is (maybe someone else watched them and can explain this). Thad has a horrendous allowed FG% (team in the paint), its worse than Love. Like I did in a different post, if you project their numbers from last year Thad is -7 fewer points than Love (massive grain of salt as the style and defensive strategy are different and shot will still occur somewhere).

Love strolling down the court every 5th possession totally screwing over his teams defense by putting them in a 5 on 4 situation *should* end, this should give us a slight boost.


2. Brewer coming off the bench and Wiggins playing a less gambling defense as a starter should add to us being better.

3. With more coaching focus, as in any mention of defense by the coach, it sounds like we will play a style of basketball that attempts to reduce the ability of the opponent as opposed to getting our next possession as fast as possible.

4. We still have Martin - I dont know if Levine is worse defensively right now but we will need Martins offense. I think we see more Dieng, Peks numbers will get better. Perhaps Flip sees Dieng as a superior help defender and handcuffs him to Martin and Pek is handcuffed with Levine who may not allow penetration like Martin. Pek and Martin could then flip flop on offensive focus.


Overall I think we get significantly better from our coaching philosophy alone.


Rebounding Differential - middle of the pack

1. Love was an elite rebounder, Thad has shown he does well at contested rebounding but he has *significantly* fewer chances and total rebounds. Philadelphia has some really bad rebounding numbers as a whole, and every year they have been bad.

I want to make one last point here, we were -8 in total rebounding in 12-13 with Love out more the season, we were +43 in total rebounds - that is the difference between 3500 vs 3551 in 82 games, 1/2 a rebound a game. Is Thad better than Cunningham and Williams?


I think we end up in the middle of the pack again



Turnovers - we were 2nd in turnover % (in a good way) and tied for 5th in Opponents turnover %.

1. Thad in for Love (just comparing last years totals) - is a 163 turnovers - 1 6 3. That would result in 2 more possessions a game over our opponent. A theoretical 4 point swing every game. All things being equal (which they are not) that would have won us 8 more games and 6 more OT's.

2. Wiggins wont get as many steals as Brewer did last year, and Brewer will have fewer this year due to lower minutes. I hope we wont have Berea out there turning the ball over either.


I think we end up better - this is a big deal because we were already dam good at limiting them and getting them.

[Brandon BassHole [enjin:8183321]]

Can't tell if this is bold or not but MO WILLIAMS WILL BE THE BEST PLAYER OFF THE BENCH FOR THIS TEAM. He isn't getting enough love and I expect him to have a pretty good season.