Grading the 3-Team Deal

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I hate to get into this with you again, LST, but here's the short version: If you acquire a star player for pieces (unproven ones at that), you win the trade. If you acquire a significant player (All-Star or better) and you win a championship because of that trade, then you won the trade. That second line remains to be seen, but I'd argue Cleveland has to be the favorites with the players they've acquired this off-season.

Also, no clue where you got that 40% of Cavs fans didn't want to make the trade. Possibly a made up stat, but I'll run with it. That means 60% of them DID want this trade. That's way more than majority (51%).

Keep in mind Warriors fans didn't want to trade Thompson either. There are dumb fans for every team. That's the point I'm getting at. Knowledgeable basketball minds who don't have immense hate/disrespect towards Kevin Love realize how good of a move this was for Cleveland. You're knowledgeable, but again, that hate for Love comes into play...

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Cam, I agree that "the team that ends up with the best player" is a conventional way to evaluate a trade, and that the Cavs win there. But that evaluation method is not always valid. The Vikings got the best player when they traded for Herschel Walker, but the draft picks they gave up made the Cowboys very good for a decade while the Vikings flopped. And staying within the NBA, I'm not sure it's clearcut that the Knicks beat the Nuggets in the Carmelo deal. And when one team has a gun to their head and the other doesn't, I think you need to look at other criteria too, and since the NBA is a business and fans produce the revenue, fan perception is an important criterion to consider. I made up the 60% Cavs figure based on a poll I saw on realGM a couple weeks ago ( I couldn't find it when I took a brief look before posting) and I actually think I may have overstated the % of Cavs' fans that wanted to make a deal...it was actually fairly evenly divided when I last looked at it. I have to believe that a similar poll taken of Wolves' fans would have at least 90% approval (maybe higher on this board). In addition to fan approval, I also give the Wolves a higher grade because of this: If the Cavs had done nothing, they still would have been fine (because of having LeBron), but the Wolves could have been set back years if they took a worse deal or let Love walk for nothing.

So those are the two criteria I favor...fan perception, and evaluation of the deal based on alternative results. And I think the Wolves win on both criteria.

EDIT: I just found the poll on realGM (they had changed the title so I didn't recognize it at first). and Cavs fan sentiment actually turned sharply against dealing for Love in the last couple weeks. 108 fans (48%) preferred that they not trade Wiggins and pieces for Love, while 97 fans (43%) were in favor of getting Love.

[TAFKASP]

Wolves: A- (Hard to imagine a better deal for the Wolves under the circumstances. The minus is simply intended to recognize that the Cavs get the best player and biggest immediate impact in this deal)

I really think the key there is "under the circumstances". Under the circumstances the Wolves were in they deserve an A+ for coming out of the deal so well. But when you instead look at having given up the best player in the trade, arguably top 5 in the league for unrealized potential I don't think the B- was a terrible grade. The Philly grade was flat out ridiculous though.

[TheGrey08]

TheGrey @TheGrey08
@kpelton MN gets one of the best hauls for a top 10 player ever and you give them a B- while PHI gets a B+? Are you serious right now?

Kevin Pelton @kpelton
@TheGrey08 It's only one of the best hauls for a top-10 player if you consider Wiggins a likely star player, which I don't.

TheGrey @TheGrey08
@kpelton Grading a trade like this so early is about talent/potential. He has star talent/potential & only time will tell if he reaches it.

Kevin Pelton @kpelton
@TheGrey08 Certainly, but the way he's performed thus far is an indication of his likelihood of reaching that potential and expected value.

TheGrey @TheGrey08
@kpelton He's 19 though too so that should factor in a lot. It's not like he's a 4 year college player. Wouldn't have gone #1 if he was.

(No further response from him)

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Personally I think it's more like:
Cavs A
Wolves B+
Sixers C+

[zigzag22 [enjin:6591633]]

LOL Grey-- Pelton's tweet about "the way he's performed thus far".....THUS FAR? THE SEASON HASN'T EVEN STARTED YET!

I'm glad that we all see through the ESPN beer goggles. If a team like the Knicks moved Melo for Wiggins/Bennett/Young, the "Worldwide Leader" would explode about how great of a deal it was and we would literally have to listen to Stephen A for 24 straight hours.

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

The first analysis report of the trade that I read was from CBS Sports and they gave an A+ to both the Cavs and the Wolves. IMO, I think the Wolves grade deserves to be A+++ since given that Love was likely walking at the end of next year, we outdid Cleveland. Frankly, I don't care what grades we get by the national media. The ESPN report doesn't bother me in the least and in fact, I like our team to be underestimated. I'm still in shockful bliss at the way things turned out.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Perhaps LeBron was given a promise that the Cavs would acquire Love, and without it he wouldn't have returned, which is highly likely. So in that case, would Cavs fans rather have Wiggins and Bennett or LeBron and Love? Hmm.

PS: Please don't compare basketball trades with football trades. The value of draft picks are completely different. Also, the Knicks did win the Carmelo trade. They got the star. Denver had a very good season after he was gone, but they have no future. New York has a star that can attract a star and so on. They have a future. Denver's future is up in the air.

[Coolbreeze44]

Can't agree with that Cam. The Knicks haven't won anything since trading for Melo. Jackson is doing a good job but they are still a mess.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

TheGrey @TheGrey08
@kpelton MN gets one of the best hauls for a top 10 player ever and you give them a B- while PHI gets a B+? Are you serious right now?

Kevin Pelton @kpelton
@TheGrey08 It's only one of the best hauls for a top-10 player if you consider Wiggins a likely star player, which I don't.

TheGrey @TheGrey08
@kpelton Grading a trade like this so early is about talent/potential. He has star talent/potential & only time will tell if he reaches it.

Kevin Pelton @kpelton
@TheGrey08 Certainly, but the way he's performed thus far is an indication of his likelihood of reaching that potential and expected value.

TheGrey @TheGrey08
@kpelton He's 19 though too so that should factor in a lot. It's not like he's a 4 year college player. Wouldn't have gone #1 if he was.

(No further response from him)

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Personally I think it's more like:
Cavs A
Wolves B+
Sixers C+

Pelton is an analytics guy so he's not going to be impressed by how high someone can jump or what they did while playing AAU ball. He looks at how Wiggins produced while at KU and then compares it to other past college prospects at the same age and turns it into a projection model. His model doesn't rate Wiggins highly relative to where he was picked. That doesn't mean Pelton thinks he will be a bust, but I don't think he sees him with the same upside as others do.

[Monster]

I'm going to add that if the Sixers pretty much figured for whatever reason they were going to trade Thad because he was gonna be gone then I don't see how they were going to get any better return than they did from the Wolves. They get the half decent 1st rounder I am sure they wanted as a the bare minimum and they got a somewhat useful basketball player (luc) that also happens to be the mentor to the player on their roster with the highest upside. They get to take a flyer on a young player in Shved. On top of that they take back LESS SALARY and all contracts are expire after this year. Who were they going to get a better deal than that from? They were unlikely to get anything better. I could see giving them some sort of B range. I'd probably give them a C+ but a B- wouldn't be crazy I guess.

Cavs good deal Wolves good deal Sixers decent deal all things considered. Everyone wins at this point of the trade lets see how it plays out. Sixers might pick some really good player with that Miami pick and they might end up being the winners of the deal. Who knows.