Projecting Ricky Rubio's Stats 2014-15

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Rubio has gradually improved his scoring efficiency in each of his three years:

TS%
'11-12: 47.6%
'12-13: 48.2%
'13-14: 49.1%

That's a positive trend, but the needle hasn't moved enough to make him what I consider to be passable. If he can get that TS% up around 51 or 52%, I think that's about the best we can hope for.

There are three ways to improve efficiency: 1) Get fouled more; 2) Make a higher percentage of 2-point shots; and 3) Make and/or take a higher percentage of 3 point shots.

Other than the macro trendline of gradually improved efficiency, it's tough to find any particular area that Rubio has consistently improved in. For example, his best year shooting 3's on a percentage basis was his rookie year. On the other hand, his best year shooting long 2's was his second year, but it was his worst in terms of hitting 3's.

However, there is one trend that has improved every year and that's the percentage of shots he's taken close to the rim:

Shot distribution as % - 0-3 feet
'11-12: 24.9% (48.5%)
'12-13: 31.7% (44.8%)
'13-14: 40.7% (49.1%)

(the number in parentheses is his FG% on these attempts)

The two most efficient shots in basketball are layups and 3-pointers. So he's taken two pretty big jumps in terms of how often he's getting into the paint and trying to finish at the hoop. In fact, it's hard to find many point guards that get 41% of their shots in the paint.

The takeaway from all of this is nothing new: So long as he continues to take a large portion of his shots in the painted area, his ability to finish at a higher percentage and/or draw more fouls is what will drive his overall efficiency as a scorer. There is only so much more he can do with his jump shot....

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Thanks for that, q...I agree that Ricky needs to take a major step forward in scoring efficiency, and I think you have highlighted how he gets there...3-pointers, layups and free throws.

I frankly don't hold out much hope for Ricky to become adequate in the mid-range game, and hopefully he will deemphasize this aspect of his game...he's just not a good jump shooter. But since he uses a similar form on his 3-pointers and his free throws and he is such an adept free thrower, I look for him to show Jason Kidd like improvement on his 3-pointers and eventually end up in the upper 30's for a percentage. It helps that defenders give him so much room on his three-pointers.

Another area of improvement I hope for is his finishing. I like the stat that his percentage of layups to total shots has increased so much over his career, and I think he recognizes that he is capable of beating his defender off the dribble at will and getting to the basket. The issue has been what he does when he gets there, because his percentage has been substandard. Further, I don't have the stats on this, but my perception is that he has much fewer "and ones" than the average NBA player. Some have pointed out his additional muscle and how that might help him with his finishing...I hope so. We know he can beat his man. If he can learn how to finish better or at least draw fouls, he can become the efficient scorer we need him to be.

[mjs34]

One thing Ricky has improved is finishing with his left hand, rather than fading away for a bank shot with his right. That will continue to improve and his finishing fg% with it. Can't believe it took this long for the wolves to hire a shooting coach. I would have had one on staff the minute Rubio got off the plane.

I think we see

14 ppg
9.5 ast
2.4 stl
4.5 reb
44 fg%
34 3pt%

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'm seeing All-Star type numbers in several projections. I can only hope you all are right and that I played it too conservative with my own. I believe in Ricky, but I'm not sure he'll ever blow anyone away in the box score. His impact goes beyond the numbers. I just want better efficiency and wins. Two things I see getting better with Ricky every year.

[mjs34]

I think if the wolves are any were close to .500, Ricky is an allstar this year. Most likely coaches decision since we have almost no national TV games though.

[thedoper]

I think if the wolves are any were close to .500, Ricky is an allstar this year. Most likely coaches decision since we have almost no national TV games though.

We will be all over national TV in Canada.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

I think if the wolves are any were close to .500, Ricky is an allstar this year. Most likely coaches decision since we have almost no national TV games though.

no way he ever beats out the pgs in the west

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I think if the wolves are any were close to .500, Ricky is an allstar this year. Most likely coaches decision since we have almost no national TV games though.

no way he ever beats out the pgs in the west

If he's averaging the 15/11 or 14/10 with decent percentages like some people have said on here, then yeah, he's better.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

I think if the wolves are any were close to .500, Ricky is an allstar this year. Most likely coaches decision since we have almost no national TV games though.

no way he ever beats out the pgs in the west

If he's averaging the 15/11 or 14/10 with decent percentages like some people have said on here, then yeah, he's better.

problem is a guy like chris paul will avg 22/9 or curry avg 23/8. Both numbers are better

[KiwiMatt]

I think if the wolves are any were close to .500, Ricky is an allstar this year. Most likely coaches decision since we have almost no national TV games though.

We will be all over national TV in Canada.

I hope so as that's where I'm based for the next year!