Wolves' roster move rumors

[Coolbreeze44]

"Cam, I don't know whether we are better off with Young rather than Love on defense...I think it's a tossup. You're correct that Young is clearly superior in PnR defense and provides more steals. But I would argue that Love's bigger bulk and vastly superior rebounding offsets Thad's advantages. And both are horrible rim protectors. I have a difficult time concluding that we are clearly better on interior defense with Young. I hope you're right, but the statistical information doesn't support your assertion."

So, Love having a bulkier body and rebounding the ball at a high clip are more important than Young playing elite P&R defense, good perimeter defense, transition defense and creating turnovers (steals, charges and other offensive fouls)? That's what you're saying. Again, that's laughable.

You went right back to interior defense... Ignoring other facets of the game is lazy, but to each his own.

Let me guess, you think Bennett's a better defender than Young too, right? Please post that and confirm to me that you haven't watched Young at all.

I don't want to be the board cop, but isn't this a little snarky Cam?

[apollotsg [enjin:6592798]]

If no one knows how the stats on NBA.com are calculated, then I will use my eye test and say that Pek is a superior man defender which is also backup by some cherry picked stats:

He averaged less in the paint shot attempts per game then 38 other players (starters with 1/2 season played). That would suggest he is winning the position battle just like my eyes tell me. If he is winning the position battle, and his man does not receive the pass or declines to shoot then that would qualify as good defense right? For an interior defender I would think the number of shots allowed, shooting % allowed, and contested defensive rebounding would be the be all, end all metrics.

Pek was .3% from being 2nd in the league in contested rebounding percentage (starters who played at least 1/2 the season). This means he wins the rebounding battle better than every other player in the league except Lopez - that is pretty good.

Lets talk about rebounding then, most of Loves rebounds were not contested, and his contested rebounding % is actually lower than I thought it would be. I think we can all agree that Love sacrificed any form of man defense in order to gain position for the potential rebound, this is why Love actually lead the league in rebound chances (starters with 1/2 the season). I find it hard to believe we will see as many uncontested shots at the PF position.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Thad and Pek suck at contesting shots. They were both bottom 5 in the league at giving up FG% at the rim. Thad was statistically the worst player in the league in that category. He helps with perimeter defense and PnR defense, but the other team is just going to run the PnR against Pek and take advantage that Thad can't protect the rim as a weak side defender. Combine that with his rebounding ability which is about half of Love's and it's going to be even rougher on the defensive end at the rim than it was last year. There's no way around it. There just isn't going to be significant improvement defensively because Thad doesn't fill the one hole that caused the defensive struggles last year. Defense starts at protecting the rim and works it's way out. You can be a great perimeter defensive team, but if there's no help behind them it just won't be enough. Small ball only works when your 5 can cover for everyone at the rim and Pek just can't be that guy.

[apollotsg [enjin:6592798]]

Thad and Pek suck at contesting shots. They were both bottom 5 in the league at giving up FG% at the rim. Thad was statistically the worst player in the league in that category. He helps with perimeter defense and PnR defense, but the other team is just going to run the PnR against Pek and take advantage that Thad can't protect the rim as a weak side defender. Combine that with his rebounding ability which is about half of Love's and it's going to be even rougher on the defensive end at the rim than it was last year. There's no way around it. There just isn't going to be significant improvement defensively because Thad doesn't fill the one hole that caused the defensive struggles last year. Defense starts at protecting the rim and works it's way out. You can be a great perimeter defensive team, but if there's no help behind them it just won't be enough. Small ball only works when your 5 can cover for everyone at the rim and Pek just can't be that guy.

You are wrong on nearly every count.

1. Pek does not suck at contesting shots, at least not near the rim. Outside shooting C are an issue but those are rare.

2. Pek is actually 11th in allowed FG % at the rim (starters who played 1/2 the season and avg at least 4 shots against a game). As I pointed out, the stat listed by NBA.com includes not only the players guy, but any shot made in the paint with the player in the area. If you look who lead the league in shot attempts against in the paint it would be Peks teammate - Love. Love also was 4th in the league in allowed FG % in the paint.

3. I cant speak to Thad - I have very little time watching him and I have no idea how he will fit in our system.

4. Love lead the league in rebound chance per game, he was 5th in uncontested rebounds per game. He rebounded 64.8% of his opportunities, but only 40.1% of contested rebounds. Thad rebounded 51.1% of his total opportunities but grabbed 41.3% of his contested rebound opportunities. To bring the point home, Love averaged 19.3 chances a game where as Thad only had 11.9 per game. While Love had more rebounds, this is more a product of opportunity than his elite leaping ability and positioning. He certainly is not rebounding twice as many balls as Thad given the same opportunities.


5,6,7. Defense does not start at the rim, I am not sure you have ever played or coached the game but it sure the hell doesn't start at the rim. It starts at the individual level by preventing your man from getting the ball or having a uncontested shot. That is where it starts, not at the rim. We could have two A Davis starting for us and if we do not prevent outside shooting or they do not play man defense the only thing they are good for is goaltending calls. Even then, if they get their average, that is 5 blocks which at least 2 will go back to the offense.

People get awfully wrapped up in ESPN highlights of some guy trying to dunk and gets stuffed, but the reality is that does not stop players from dunking and statistically it leads to more harm than it does good. This is why many coaches teach NOT to block shots because it statistically leads to either a foul against your team, a offensive rebound, poor positioning allowing an uncontested shot elsewhere, or pure failure to stop the shot/dunk outright.

To use some statistics to prove this, look at the amount of shot attempts in the paint and look at the block leaders, they are the same with one exception - Davis. He is actually someone who I would argue bucks the trend completely unlike anyone else in the NBA. Outside of him, there is no player that alters the desire or actual attempts in the paint.

If you want more analysis on why blocks are overrated use google to find the paper out there that discusses the value of the block vs steals. Once you read that, go look at who is at the top of the list of people who had at least 4 in the paint shots against them and lead the league in steals. I have no idea if Thad is actually good or not but his name appears with an awful lot of players known for good defense.

[60WinTim]

Nice write-up, apollo!!!

Maybe it will be 60 wins... ;-)

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Here are the stats I was looking at.

"Of anyone averaging 30-plus minutes per game at power forward or center last season, the NBA's five worst interior defenders were Thaddeus Young (60.2% FG), Tristan Thompson (59.1%), Kevin Love (57.4%), Nikola Vucevic (56.4%) and Nikola Pekovic (55.2%). By that same criterion, the NBA's worst shot-blockers were Zach Randolph at 0.3 blocks per game, David Lee, Thompson and Pekovic at 0.4 blocks, then Love, Young and Glen Davis at 0.5 blocks. Yes, Love and Pekovic were Minnesota's two highest-paid players last season."

Pek and Thad are in both of those categories which pretty much encompasses interior defense in a nutshell. In the NBA defense does start at the rim. It's why the Celtics won the title when they added KG. It's why the Mavericks were able to hold off the Heat. It's why the defensive player of the year goes to a big man basically every year. A defensive anchor makes everyone better around him. Your perimeter guys can hound the 3 point line when they know if their guy beats them they have great help behind them. It makes guys like Ricky and Brewer so much more effective because their gambles don't lead to as many points and generate more points than they give up which wasn't the case for us last year with no rim protector behind them. Individual defense is the last part of what makes a team actually good at defense. Finally, rebounding is a raw stat. The effect on the game is how many more you grab over your opponent which equals possessions you get that they don't. Love got his amount of opportunities because he knows what he is doing. He gets in the right position. Thad getting a slightly higher percentage of contested rebounds does not make him close to Love in rebounding ability. The percentages don't matter in rebounding. What matters is if you come down with the ball and Love does it twice as many times as Thad per game regardless of whether they were contested or not. Considering rebounding is an effort play I don't think it looks too good to argue for a guy who has the lower percentage of opportunity because it means he isn't working for the boards nearly as hard as Love.

[apollotsg [enjin:6592798]]

Here are the stats I was looking at.

Pek and Thad are in both of those categories which pretty much encompasses interior defense in a nutshell. In the NBA defense does start at the rim. It's why the Celtics won the title when they added KG. It's why the Mavericks were able to hold off the Heat. It's why the defensive player of the year goes to a big man basically every year. A defensive anchor makes everyone better around him. Your perimeter guys can hound the 3 point line when they know if their guy beats them they have great help behind them. It makes guys like Ricky and Brewer so much more effective because their gambles don't lead to as many points and generate more points than they give up which wasn't the case for us last year with no rim protector behind them. Individual defense is the last part of what makes a team actually good at defense. Finally, rebounding is a raw stat. The effect on the game is how many more you grab over your opponent which equals possessions you get that they don't. Love got his amount of opportunities because he knows what he is doing. He gets in the right position. Thad getting a slightly higher percentage of contested rebounds does not make him close to Love in rebounding ability. The percentages don't matter in rebounding. What matters is if you come down with the ball and Love does it twice as many times as Thad per game regardless of whether they were contested or not. Considering rebounding is an effort play I don't think it looks too good to argue for a guy who has the lower percentage of opportunity because it means he isn't working for the boards nearly as hard as Love.

I dont know what to tell you other than the numbers do NOT translate into what you are saying - period. Those magical rim protectors face the same amount of shots as non-rim protectors and the additional 1 block a game they get, may or may not translate into an additional possession. That does not decide a game, it just doesn't.

You are looking at statistics but not looking at what it actually is - look at the definition of the shooting % you reference.

Thads paint partner was Hawes - the rest of his team was steaming garbage. I have no idea what he will look like here, but I am eager to see what Flip does with him. I get the feeling we will never have to watch our PF watch his man shoot the ball and the extent of his defensive effort is turning his back to the shooter to determine his best position for a potential rebound.

Your two instances of proof that rim protection is the difference maker is absurd - once again, the volume of shots taken inside relative to "rim protectors" status does not show using real numbers that teams/players are reluctant to go inside and shoot - period.

Rebounding is a raw stat, rebounding % and uncontested rebound % are not. Rebounding is a product of opportunity and rebounding %. Lets ask this question - why did Love lead the league in rebounding opportunities? I know the answer because I watched every minute of every game (usually twice with the second one the next day with the opposing team commentary). It is because he sacrificed everything to get the rebound. He played off his man or allowed a uncontested shot. The guy refused to do the most minimal thing of sticking his hand up as his man goes into the shooting motion. If we use your take on numbers, Thad destroyed Love prior to last year in rebounding .

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I can't take you seriously when you are arguing against a consistent top 3 rebounder in the league for a guy who got outrebounded by his PG last year. 6 RPGs, but because he pulled down a slightly better percentage of contested rebounds he is an equivalent (I hope you aren't implying this, but who knows) rebounder because he just didn't have the same opportunities as Love? Come on.

You are associating rim protection with how many shots guys actually have to defend versus the percentage of shots they actually allow their opponent to convert on those opportunities. Those magical rim protectors may only block 1 more shot per game than Pek, but when they give up around 5+% less FG%, that clearly shows that rim protecting ability is a direct factor. The amount of shots at the rim says more about a guy's teammates than the guy himself because all he can do is try to stop the shot from going in and there are 4 other guys on a team that let their guy get to the rim, so you can't say that the rim protector allowing his man more shots at the rim than say Pek nearly covers that much of a shot difference. I associate rim protection solely with FG% against because that is the percentage of shots made against you an it doesn't care about blocked or altered shots (it is black and white, the shot either went in or it didn't), thus if player A gives up 60% at the rim and player B gives up 55% at the rim, player B is a better rim protector even if player A blocks more shots because player B prevented a higher percentage of shots from going in than player A. That is the definition of rim protection.

You're shaping the stats for your arguments just like I am, but in the complete opposite way they should be shaped. Quantity of shots against from a rim protecting standpoint says more about the players around you than the player you are thus using a percentage is a better way to judge if player A is better than player B because it directly shows how much you affect a guys shot just by being the last line of defense. Rebounding percentage is the wrong way to go because rebounding is directly tied to possessions, thus getting more rebounds regardless of opportunity or % is more important because it means more possessions. I get your arguments, they are just applying the wrong principles and stats to what matters when talking about rim protection and rebounding.

[apollotsg [enjin:6592798]]

I can't take you seriously when you are arguing against a consistent top 3 rebounder in the league for a guy who got outrebounded by his PG last year. 6 RPGs, but because he pulled down a slightly better percentage of contested rebounds he is an equivalent (I hope you aren't implying this, but who knows) rebounder because he just didn't have the same opportunities as Love? Come on.

You are associating rim protection with how many shots guys actually have to defend versus the percentage of shots they actually allow their opponent to convert on those opportunities. Those magical rim protectors may only block 1 more shot per game than Pek, but when they give up around 5+% less FG%, that clearly shows that rim protecting ability is a direct factor. The amount of shots at the rim says more about a guy's teammates than the guy himself because all he can do is try to stop the shot from going in and there are 4 other guys on a team that let their guy get to the rim, so you can't say that the rim protector allowing his man more shots at the rim than say Pek nearly covers that much of a shot difference. I associate rim protection solely with FG% against because that is the percentage of shots made against you an it doesn't care about blocked or altered shots (it is black and white, the shot either went in or it didn't), thus if player A gives up 60% at the rim and player B gives up 55% at the rim, player B is a better rim protector even if player A blocks more shots because player B prevented a higher percentage of shots from going in than player A. That is the definition of rim protection.

You're shaping the stats for your arguments just like I am, but in the complete opposite way they should be shaped. Quantity of shots against from a rim protecting standpoint says more about the players around you than the player you are thus using a percentage is a better way to judge if player A is better than player B because it directly shows how much you affect a guys shot just by being the last line of defense. Rebounding percentage is the wrong way to go because rebounding is directly tied to possessions, thus getting more rebounds regardless of opportunity or % is more important because it means more possessions. I get your arguments, they are just applying the wrong principles and stats to what matters when talking about rim protection and rebounding.

1. I am not sure what you are arguing now? That Love will be out rebounded by Thad? You claimed doubled, I disagree because the numbers show that. To understand this, you will have to look at:

a. sheer volume of rebound opportunities, MN was 4th in possessions per game

b. Love was at the top in opportunities per game, this is due to positioning (both good and bad), possessions and selling out

c. he was top 10 in FGA in the paint because team went at him knowing it would lead to high %


It is known that a majority of uncontested rebounds are not skill based, at all. These rebounds will be collected by any warm body on the floor. Google rebounding - there are lots of coaching and statistics papers out there that speak of this.

Here is a great quote: "This basically confirms what we knew already. Many of the defensive rebounds any individual player grabs could have been taken by one of his teammates. In fact, Dave Berri eventually changed the Wins Score and Wins Produced formulas when convinced of the evidence to devalue defensive rebounds in player evaluation."

Your last paragraph is completely contradictory to your first. Again, more possessions leads to more opportunities (agree), poor defense leads to more shots against leading to more opportunities (agreed I think), selling out completely to get rebounds leads to more opportunities (maybe you agree?), having a pulse and laying in the actual paint as a PF or C leads to more opportunities (may you agree?) = this adds up to more opportunities then everyone in the game - EVERYONE. You start taking away some of those factors and the number goes down which leads to fewer actual rebounds based on the players %. This is why % is used by pretty much every coach at every level in every country in the world.



2. Magic Rim Protection - again you are using a flawed statistic to prove something that is not accurate, you are not even twisting the numbers in the right way.

Show me the numbers of magic rim protectors actually reducing the number of shots in the paint. This was your original claim, that defense starts at the rim. You have shifted to using FG% allowed which is a team stat based on your big men as a total. Love plays poor man defense and does even less on help defense. Pek is competent at man defense but poor at help defense. This leads to a horrid allowed FG % in the paint.

FG attempts in the paint is the metric you look at when you want to prove or disprove that rim protection stops teams from taking inside shots. The numbers show it does not deter anyone from doing so. The FG allowed % is the metric you use to show how good a teams man, and help defense is in the paint - this factors in blocks, defensive rebounding to stop easy put backs, and straight up good man defense.

[bleedspeed]

So is Thad a better help defender then Love? This is where a lot of defensive improvement will come from?