Thoughts going into training camp...

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Yeah, nice article Cam. I wouldn't predict 45, but we'll definitely be in the mid to high 30's. I called Bud our comeback player of the year and if he's our starting SG, then he can't be THAT much worse than Martin if he's knocking down his 3's. We'll still need Martin to continue that production off the bench, but I could see these 2 splitting equal time at SG.

Also, Flip should be careful about telling Bennett to limit his 3 point shooting. If he can hit them in games, then let him. Didn't someone (McHale or Rambis) tell Love not to do that too? We'll need his outside shooting this year when Bud and Martin both get hurt in mid-November.

[Coolbreeze44]

I hate to throw cold water on all the Bud love going on here, but if we are going to rely on Bud to play major minutes we aren't going to be a very good team. He doesn't fit the defensive style Flip is creating, and he still hasn't shown he's back from his injuries. He is no better than an average NBA player, and as a T-Wolve he hasn't even shown that competency. In a perfect world he becomes something that we haven't seen, but I think that is a huge reach by Wolve fans.

[thedoper]

I hate to throw cold water on all the Bud love going on here, but if we are going to rely on Bud to play major minutes we aren't going to be a very good team. He doesn't fit the defensive style Flip is creating, and he still hasn't shown he's back from his injuries. He is no better than an average NBA player, and as a T-Wolve he hasn't even shown that competency. In a perfect world he becomes something that we haven't seen, but I think that is a huge reach by Wolve fans.

This is a good point. Bud looked liked he had no business even being in the NBA last year. I think it is fair to hope that he can become a good 2nd unit scorer and a spot up 3 pt guy. But anything beyond that seems to be really aiming too high for someone who was at best a decent NBA player before multiple major injuries. I hope the aim for him is 10ish minutes per game all on the second unit. If he plays so well that we need him more than that great news.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Please, not another comparison from Bennett to Love. I can't deal with any type of relation there. The two aren't similar.

As for Bud, I do think he's healthy. He looked healthy in the scrimmages. I realize the level of intensity is higher in real game settings, but it was still better than anything I saw from him last year in terms of physical health and being closer to 100%. He may not fit the defensive identity aspect, but he's one of the better shooters on the team (on a team that NEEDS shooting) with good passing instincts and overall good BBIQ. Also, when healthy, he definitely fits the run-and-gun mold. Healthy Air Bud is a good finisher as well as being able to run to the wing on the break for a catch-and-shoot.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Cam, it was hardly a comparison to Love. I'm suggesting if you got a big who can hit 3's, you let him.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

Found this post that was on RealGM, but was definitely worth reading and sharing with you all here. It's very lengthy, though, and if the board decides that I should delete it to remove clutter then I will.

"Warning: This is going to be long.

I've noticed the Vegas over/under on Minny is around 26 games, and every casual NBA fan I talk to has the impression the team is going to more-or-less bottom out this year. I see this as part of a misunderstanding about how basketball works that essentially simplifies the game to a "sum of the parts" contest in which the "parts" aren't even given the correct values (mostly because of not considering replaceability/irreplaceability).

There's a great article from fivethirtyeight.com that was recently linked to on this board that discussed different stats in the replaceability/irreplaceability context. (This basically means what percentage of the time another player could make a shot, or get a rebound, or a steal, or any other stat anyway if Player X didn't do it.) One of the article's conclusions was that Rubio contributes in ways that are among the least replaceable, while his deficiencies are among the most replaceable (i.e. other guys on the court can cover for his weaknesses rather easily, thus rendering them less problematic than they seem).

Another factor to consider is Rubio's elite impact-based advanced metrics. People often complain about this family of stats, and a common argument concerning Rubio has been that he benefited from playing so much with Love... but then Rubio had similarly elite impact-based advanced metrics in FIBA. So, either Rubio has a very high-level positive impact or he's just getting lucky repeatedly with all these impact-based advanced metrics. I'd go with Occam's razor here. And if Rubio is (way) more valuable than is generally thought, then Love almost has to be less valuable. And I think it's reasonable to expect at least some improvement from Rubio this season compared to last, which would bump up his positive impact even further.

Enough NBA players can score that scoring, on an individual level is more opportunity based and not nearly as much of an indication of individual player value as is commonly thought. In fact, from a statistical perspective it's over 80% replaceable. This shows us why, for example, Denver didn't suffer from the loss of Melo the way almost everyone expected. In our case, we have two guys (in Martin and Pekovic) who score over 20 points per 36; and there are always other guys who come pretty cheap in FA or via trades who can put up buckets (but usually hurt you in other areas of the game) if you really find your team short on scorers.

Interior defense, however, doesn't come easy... and we used to probably have the worst interior defense in the league. Love was in the bottom five in the league according to a Sloan Analytics study ranking bigs by opponent FG% within a certain number of feet of the rim (I think it might be 5 feet, but don't remember for sure) and Pek was awful, too, even though I don't remember his exact ranking. However, with Pek you can make a sort-of intuitive argument that he's so strong that he partially makes up for that particular analysis because guys simply get close to the hoop less against him (and then when they do, the percentage is high because it's usually because they're past him or he's off balance or something). I don't fully buy that explanation for Pek, but with Love there isn't any logical explanation other than that he's just awful on defense.

Now, you might say that Love makes up for this to some extent through great defensive rebounding. However, rebounding, like scoring, is over 80% replaceable. Part of the reason for this (and something particularly relevant in Love's case) is that if players rebound correctly, it means they box out. Essentially, they form a protective circle around the ball, blocking the other team's players, and then whoever is closest to the ball makes a quick move and grabs it up... however, many players "cheat" this by going for the ball constantly. Teams with coaches like Popovich and Thibodeau don't let their guys do this, but many coaches seem to either not notice or not care.

And Adelman never seemed to care or notice that Love did this often. I'm not saying Love's not a very good rebounder... nobody gets 12 rpg without having a great nose for the ball. However, I am saying that 12 rebounds by Love aren't the same as, for example, 12 rebounds by Tim Duncan. Love essentially claimed "other players'" rebounds by breaking from his box-out early. (The tendency of players to naturally break a little slower or faster than each other, even when not "cheating" on purpose, is a major reason rebounds are so replaceable and also points to why RPG or even RB% only tells part of the story, and you can't know the rest without carefully watching a team's rebounding dynamic.)

Of course, Love's scoring and rebounding won't be replaced 100% by our current roster, but IMO those categories will be fairly easy to replace enough so they're not major problems. Martin averaged 21.5 points per 36 on .553 TS% and Pek averaged 20.4 points per 36 on .584 TS% last season. Two guys who can put up points at that rate is more than enough when you combine them with a great passer/facilitator like Rubio and a number of other players who know their roles and are at least semi-efficient scorers.

IMO the main thing Love brought us that we're going to miss is three-point shooting. You optimally want to spread the floor with at least three outside shooters in most situations, and it looks like we're going to have one elite three-point shooter in Martin, one competent three-point shooter in Rubio (for all his shooting woes overall, his .331 3P% last season actually was competent)... and then unless we use Budinger much more than I expect, we have problems. Maybe Penberthy will make a big difference, and/or Young can get into the 33-35% range now that he has less defensive attention than he had to deal with in Philly... and/or maybe Wiggins can add an occasional open three to his arsenal sooner than we expect... but this is definitely an apparent weakness going into the season, and it's an area where Love's importance was perhaps underrated (while being overrated in just about every other area IMO).

The thing is, though... we didn't just give away Love. We got Wiggins and Young, switched coaches to Saunders, who while not an elite coach by most estimates is probably above-average, and even more importantly tends to utilize a defense-heavy and PG-centric system that naturally fits our roster.

Perhaps, the most positive change, in a broad sense, is that the team has a clear identity for the first time in a while. Our rotation last year was an awkward split between players who put tremendous focus on defensive pressure (Rubio, Brewer, Dieng), guys who seemed to take defense off (Barea, Martin, Love), and guys who tried but had defensive limitations (Budinger, Dante, Pek).

Now, we will have two strong perimeter defenders on the court at almost all times. Rubio can guard 1 or 2 and Brewer and Wiggins can both guard 2 or 3 (and possibly even 1 sometimes, depending on matchups). This allows us to hide Martin, the same way Thibodeau has had success hiding guys like Rose, Augustin and Korver. Young is undersized, but he's still a good defender with quick hands who makes the opponent work, and his presence will be a clear defensive upgrade on Love. All of this will make things way easier on Pek, since he won't have to help nearly as much as he did last season. And Dieng will probably play almost half the game anyway, which gives us a strong interior defensive presence during that time.

This team is filled with fast, athletic, young guys who will constantly pressure the other team, hustle, move, and play unselfishly. Martin and Pek have their roles as designated scorers (with Mo Williams also being a scoring spark off the bench), but everyone else fits into the "constant pressure" mold, which will cover for Martin's and Pek's weaknesses, while Martin and Pek cover for the other players' scoring weaknesses. This squad just fits.

Chemistry matters to an extent where San Antonio can go 62-20 with their best players all missing multiple RS games and then win a title without having anybody play at a top-10-in-the-league level. (Duncan and Parker tied for 12th in MVP voting last season.) And our team should have great chemistry this coming season. To be honest, I think this is only partially by design and, thus, partially just by luck that, for example, CLE drafted Wiggins (who fits into our team identity) instead of Parker (who may have a great career, but would likely create an unclear identity similar to the Love era). Our two cornerstones (Rubio and Wiggins) are elite defenders, unselfish players, and constant hustle guys with good attitudes and intangibles. Every core guy seems to want to be here, and even our role players are net-positive guys who really fit into what we're doing. For example, Brewer's advanced metrics show that he has a positive impact, and that makes sense, as he's a team player who gives his all during 20 mpg and stays within his role.

We actually have a TEAM this season.

I'm predicting 45 wins, and then a true breakout next year.

P.S. And I didn't even write about the benefits of getting rid of the corner offense, because other posters have done that often and eloquently enough that I think pretty much everyone on this board is sold on the benefits of changing to a more P&R-based system.

P.P.S. I know I didn't mention Lavine or Shabazz. I understand many forum members are very high on those guys; however, I'm just unsure if they'll really get time this season, considering the wing glut. I wrote about guys we can be pretty confident will have a major role, and if Lavine or Shabazz (or anyone else I didn't focus on) plays well enough to earn significant time, it will probably mean our team's even better than I'm expecting."

-- Gideon

Ricky Rubio in no way shape or form, more valuable in any way to Kevin Love. I wouldn't trade Love for 3 Rubio's. Jesus do people who make these posts WATCH THE GAMES? Rubio's offense is broken. There's no part of Love's game that's worse then Rubios shooting.

Drives me nuts people who say that his shooting doesn't matter, or that he'll just develop a shot because he's young.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Cam, it was hardly a comparison to Love. I'm suggesting if you got a big who can hit 3's, you let him.

Bennett can't hit... Nevermind.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

Also the notion that the Spurs are good because they have chemistry and they all like each other JUST LIKE OUR WOLVES, so now were closer to the Spurs because we got rid of that cancer Kevin Love.

Nevermind the fact that Pop is the best coach ever. Nevermind that every single person on that team can shoot. Matt Bonner would be like the wolves second best shooter and he barely gets run with the Spurs. Ah the homer views drives me nuts

[Phenom]

The Spurs have great chemistry because the coach demands everyone stay in their role and promises them that they will be rewarded for doing so by not only winning but getting opportunities to contribute in all facets. What brings it all together is the willingness of the leaders (Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker) to fall in line and reward their teammates for doing the right thing. Any of these 3 could carry the load most nights and demand shots but they reward their other teammates who play the right way and feed them for shots when they are where they are supposed to be. Other teams do not have this kind of discipline and its a credit to the Spurs for going after the right players, even if they arent the most talented or athletic. Its probably unfair to compare any team to this Spurs dynasty as they are one of a kind.

[mjs34]

Also the notion that the Spurs are good because they have chemistry and they all like each other JUST LIKE OUR WOLVES, so now were closer to the Spurs because we got rid of that cancer Kevin Love.

Nevermind the fact that Pop is the best coach ever. Nevermind that every single person on that team can shoot. Matt Bonner would be like the wolves second best shooter and he barely gets run with the Spurs. Ah the homer views drives me nuts

Maybe you should take notice that Pop gets on his stars just like every other player on the roster, and his stars are setting an example of working hard at both ends of the floor.

Love's defense was every bit as bad as Rubio's shooting! The wolves tanked when Rubio went down, but still seemed to remain competitive with Love out.