Flip has an obvious massive chip on his shoulder

[Lipoli390]

Flip's weakness as a head coach in the past has been his tendency to "lose the locker room" so to speak. That was McHale's state reason for replacing him here. Sprewell and Cassell ran amuck, complaining and dogging it their last season here. It's been reported that Piston players were openly disrespectful to Flip when he was here and that Flp's inability to command the respect and attention of his players was why Dumars fired him. We'll see if that becomes an issue here. A lot depends on the types of players we have.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

World -- You're right about Flip historically favoring the midrange game. But we've all heard him say the three-point shot is critical to success in today's NBA. So it will be interesting to see how and how well he adapts his offensive system. I take heart in the fact that he is a very good basketball mind as a coach.

But we also need good shooters. The last thing we need is for Brewer to be jacking up 3-point shots that we know won't go in more than 30% of the time. Despite the addition of Kevin Martin and a healthy Kevin Love last season, we were still 26th in the league in 3-point accuracy. Assuming we get back a shooter of similar quality in a Kevin Love trade (Parsons or Thompson for example), we still need improvement from the likes of Rubio, Budinger, whoever backs up Rubio, and Shabazz Muhammed. I don't see any help coming from our two draft picks and Mbah Moute and Brewer have already proven over many years that they can't shoot.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Q -- I think Flip will do more than improve our defense. Flip's strength is on the offensive end. Two things Flip does especially well are: limiting turnovers, and getting quality shots and possessions. That leads to winning close games, something we didn't do well last season. Flip has the best winning percentage of any current head coach in games decided by 4 points or less.

While it's heartening to know that Flip has a good record in close games, I tend to think that close game win percentage has more to do with random luck than any other variable. Our desire to understand the cause and effect for everything doesn't leave much room for random variability, but that's exactly what's at play when a game is decided by just a small sample size of shots, referee calls, etc.

As for defense, you seem to assume he will improve it. How? What's his defensive philosophy and track record? To me that's the factor a coach has the most influence over. We were already a good team when it came to limiting turnovers, so I don't see how he improves us much in this area.

Q- I was pleased with the offense the starting five provided last year, but not with the defense, and I expect that to be much improved. Some of the improvement will come from the coaches, and some because of the nature of the personnel. Here are my reasons for optimism.

1) Love, Martin and Pek were clearly the weak link in our defense last year. I expect two of them to be gone, and Pek's minutes to be reduced by the emergence of Dieng.

2) Continued defensive improvement by Dieng. We saw his learning curve last year, and I expect that to continue. He has everything needed to be a defensive standout...length, athleticism, quick hands and feet, smarts, and effort. Flip drafted him, and will want to give him every opportunity to succeed.

3) Creativity. As World mentioned, Flip was one of the first coaches to embrace the zone defense when the rules changed. While not known as a defensive coach, having the flexibility to change defenses when the situation dictates should help.

4) Coaching intensity: How often do we watch other teams, and see the coaches exhorting their team to pick it up on the defensive end. It usually dominates the conversation during the time outs. "Come on guys, we gotta get stops". Now, think about how often you saw Adelman doing this last year. Flip is a much more passionate coach than Rick, and he will demand more from his players defensively. I think his intensity will be reflected back on the court.

5) The Mitchell factor. Sam Mitchell was an overachiever as a player, and his Toronto team did much better than you would have thought given the personnel. He demands the best out of his players, and again I think we will see that mostly on the defensive side of the ball.

6) The "Screw Love" factor: The OP said Flip has enormous chip on his shoulder. I think that can be expanded to the entire team. During the past two weeks, it has become clear to me just how disliked Kevin Love was by his teammates. Most telling was an exchange by Sid Hartman and Mike Max on the Sports Show, where Sid tried to say that Love was well liked. The normally submissive and non-controversial Max told Sid that he was with the team every day when they were in town, and it was clear to him how unpopular Love was. Flip and his team are going to want to stick it to Love, and the dream will be to do in his absence what they couldn't do with him...make the playoffs. I think this team is going to leave it all on the floor every night, and that effort will have its biggest positive impact on the defense.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

LST, That's a pretty optimistic take and I hope you are right. I don't consider Love to be a defensive liability due to his elite defensive rebounding abilities and the fact he never gambles or gives stupid fouls. He's not great mind you, but he can absolutely be a part of an elite defensive squad with the right surrounding pieces and schemes. Pekovic actually isn't that bad either, but the combination of the two - and their reluctance to play physical defense in the paint - made them a less-than-ideal pairing defensively. Martin on the other hand is truly miserable defensively. I also think Brewer has always been an overrated defender.

[ace [enjin:6598567]]

LST, That's a pretty optimistic take and I hope you are right. I don't consider Love to be a defensive liability due to his elite defensive rebounding abilities and the fact he never gambles or gives stupid fouls. He's not great mind you, but he can absolutely be a part of an elite defensive squad with the right surrounding pieces and schemes. Pekovic actually isn't that bad either, but the combination of the two - and their reluctance to play physical defense in the paint - made them a less-than-ideal pairing defensively. Martin on the other hand is truly miserable defensively. I also think Brewer has always been an overrated defender.

Pek might not protect the rim very well, but you can't say he doesn't play physical defense. Have you EVER seen someone get deep position on him? I don't know if I can recall a single time. I'm sure it's happened at some point, but not often enough that I can remember. I don't think there is anything more physical about defense than pushing your guy around the court and out of the lane.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Ace, Let me clarify. When I say physical, I'm not talking about holding your ground in the post. Both Pek and Love were good at not giving up great position in post-ups and leaning on their guy. I'm talking about giving hard fouls to prevent easy dunks or layups. Pekovic and Love routinely backed off on guys driving to the hoop in order to avoid fouling.

[ace [enjin:6598567]]

Ace, Let me clarify. When I say physical, I'm not talking about holding your ground in the post. Both Pek and Love were good at not giving up great position in post-ups and leaning on their guy. I'm talking about giving hard fouls to prevent easy dunks or layups. Pekovic and Love routinely backed off on guys driving to the hoop in order to avoid fouling.

Ah ok. Yes I will agree with you there.

[thedoper]

Q -- I think Flip will do more than improve our defense. Flip's strength is on the offensive end. Two things Flip does especially well are: limiting turnovers, and getting quality shots and possessions. That leads to winning close games, something we didn't do well last season. Flip has the best winning percentage of any current head coach in games decided by 4 points or less.

While it's heartening to know that Flip has a good record in close games, I tend to think that close game win percentage has more to do with random luck than any other variable. Our desire to understand the cause and effect for everything doesn't leave much room for random variability, but that's exactly what's at play when a game is decided by just a small sample size of shots, referee calls, etc.

As for defense, you seem to assume he will improve it. How? What's his defensive philosophy and track record? To me that's the factor a coach has the most influence over. We were already a good team when it came to limiting turnovers, so I don't see how he improves us much in this area.

I am really surprised to hear this coming from you Q. You are always so into stats and yet for this point you put luck out there as an explanation. One thing that was fairly obvious last year statistically is that the 4th quarter was our worst shooting % for our core 4th quarter players..

eFG% Season / 4th Quarter
Love .524 / .450
Rubio .419 / .299
Pek .540 / .504
Brewer .517 /.492
Martin .486 / .484
JJ .443 / .370

As an aside, when I did this I was actually surprised that Martin was the most consistent performer. But I do think it shows that with Martin he is a veteran who will give you exactly what you expect.

When you do the same comparison on raw FG% the disparity is even greater, implying that we are actually getting calls in the 4th to improve our eFG%. I really don't think luck had nothing to do with us losing close games. We were taking bad shots at the end of games, and the biggest examples of that were our 2 "stars" Love and Rubio. I think coaching has a huge impact on the type of shots players are taking in the 4th. I think Adelman got through to our team in the first 3 quarters last season but he had no way to calm them down and get them to make good decisions in the 4th. Our maybe Adelman tried to treat every game situation the same instead of adjusting to NBA 4th quarter basketball? Either way the 4th quarter was our teams worst shooting quarter, especially for Love, Rubio and JJ.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Great information, doper...thanks for posting. I'm too lazy to look this up, but I want to know if there is another factor involved with Martin in the 4th quarter. While his EFG% is good and consistent with the first three quarters, I wonder if his opportunities drop off significantly in the 4th quarter. It certainly felt that way to me, and mostly because he doesn't seem to work as hard to get the ball in the 4th quarter, either because he is tired, or more likely, because he shies away from being "the man" at crunch time. Some of us have commented on how Martin seems to disappear in the 4th quarter, even to the extent of rotating away from the ball in an odd attempt to not be included in the offensive flow. Contrast that with his offensive performance in most first quarters, where he worked actively to put himself in a position to score, and often was our most productive player.

Other than the one game in which he hit the game winner (GS?), I can't remember him ever being a factor in the 4th...something seems to happen to him. Does anyone have his productivity by quarter? I sense that it will be more meaningful than his EFG%.

[thedoper]

Great information, doper...thanks for posting. I'm too lazy to look this up, but I want to know if there is another factor involved with Martin in the 4th quarter. While his EFG% is good and consistent with the first three quarters, I wonder if his opportunities drop off significantly in the 4th quarter. It certainly felt that way to me, and mostly because he doesn't seem to work as hard to get the ball in the 4th quarter, either because he is tired, or more likely, because he shies away from being "the man" at crunch time. Some of us have commented on how Martin seems to disappear in the 4th quarter, even to the extent of rotating away from the ball in an odd attempt to not be included in the offensive flow. Contrast that with his offensive performance in most first quarters, where he worked actively to put himself in a position to score, and often was our most productive player.

Other than the one game in which he hit the game winner (GS?), I can't remember him ever being a factor in the 4th...something seems to happen to him. Does anyone have his productivity by quarter? I sense that it will be more meaningful than his EFG%.

There is something to that LST. But I really think it was more of an Adleman system/rotation issue. For instance, Martin had 2/3s the 4th quarter FGAs of JJ. But alot of that was Adelman setting up his rotations to have 2nd string play most of their minutes at the beginning of the 4th and often JJ would stay on the floor in favor of Rubio and freeze everyone out. Also Martin himself would often serve as a primary ball handler in 4th quarter situations which likely changed his shot selection and how he engaged in the offense in the 4th. I do think his role changed and that help make him disappear.Fatigue/age may have been a factor in the eye test too. But when it came to just how many shots he hit, he stayed consistent. My point about Martin is that he is what he is. A good shoot and a capable ball handler. Expecting more from him really isn't fair but I felt that Adelman favored him as one of his guys and gave him unnecessary opportunities. I did notice what you are talking about though in terms of his play, but just from a pure shooting perspective he was less affected than Rubio and Love who dramatically sucked in their 4th quarter opportunities.

All the stats I am pulling from Basketball reference.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.htmlWolves Stats