ESPN Insider "Don't trade Kevin Love"

[Papalrep]

Can anyone post this?

[Kevin Glasshands [enjin:6642795]]

Wolves shouldn't trade Love

An interesting rumor popped up the other day that had the Sacramento Kings reportedly throwing their hat in the ring for Minnesota's Kevin Love, the subject of still-other rumors that have the All-Star forward on his way out of the Twin Cities. Rumors are unreliable at best, but to make a point, let's pretend these are true. The Sacramento speculation is particularly interesting because the Kings would in effect be willing to take on the quandary facing the Timberwolves: Should the team build up around Love without assurances that he'll be around beyond next season, or should the Timberwolves play it safe and sell high for as much value as they can?

The default stance seems to be that Minnesota has to flip Love to avoid the risk of ending up with nothing. If Love has made his exit strategy clear, it's hard to blame him. It's tough to win a championship in the NBA, and certain desperation must set in for stars that are cut out of the chase. It has to be even more difficult for Love. He's six years into his career and his three-year WARP puts him in the 99th percentile of all NBA players. Yet he has not logged a single postseason minute.

Love's wishes and rights aside, if I were Timberwolves president Flip Saunders, I would not trade him. Certainly not this summer. If another season goes south, then you have to deal Love at the deadline for whatever you can get. In fact, last week we talked about how Love fits better with the Bulls than Carmelo Anthony. However my summer strategy is the opposite of the "we have to trade Love to maximize return" default. Instead, I'm trading near-term draft picks, offering up young talent, clearing cap space to overpay free agents and hunting for overseas gems. In other words, I'm not trying to get out in front of another rebuild. I'm shifting into win-now-at-all-costs mode, and Love is the foundation of my plan.

Make Love happy

This notion does not apply only to the Minnesota-Love situation. It holds true for any noncontender with a disgruntled star who has grown dissatisfied watching his former college and AAU buddies battle on the league's biggest stages in May and June. The player is unhappy? Make him happy.

In today's post-2011-lockout NBA, market size is not really an excuse. Perhaps it never was. The last six Western Conference finalists have been composed of different combinations of San Antonio, Memphis and Oklahoma City. Indiana has two straight Eastern Conference finals appearances under its belt. Meanwhile, the Lakers, Knicks and Celtics all missed the playoffs. The system has been chipped at and molded specifically to benefit franchises like Sacramento, Minnesota and Utah, so that they can acquire a star and, eventually, keep him. However in recent seasons, and probably because of the precedent set by Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh in Miami, players seem increasingly willing to forgo max dollars and the media limelight in order to chase titles.

It's a noble trend, but one that has me concerned that rebuilding teams will get stuck on a repeating cycle. It goes like this: You struggle. You draft high in the lottery. You clear cap space. Good fortune strikes and you acquire a top-10 talent. The roster is slow to grow around the star player, and the losses mount. Before you turn the corner, the star player looks elsewhere and free agency beckons. So you trade the star in exchange for more future assets while sinking back to the bottom of the standings. The cycle starts all over.

We haven't been working under the current CBA long enough to know how often that hypothetical situation is going to play out. Oklahoma City followed the standard rebuilding blueprint and the payoff was so immediate that you've heard no hints of dissatisfaction from stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. But even with the Thunder, there is an assumption that each season OKC doesn't win the title, rumors of an imminent Durant fire sale will commence. This is what happened in New Orleans with Chris Paul, and in Orlando with Dwight Howard. Sure, the Pelicans ended up with Anthony Davis as a consolation. But if New Orleans fails to surround Davis with a contending core, in a couple of years won't we be writing articles headlined "Anthony Davis Trade Fits"?

How Minnesota rebuilds

Let's bring this back around to Minnesota, which has unfortunately become a symbol of my concerns. Minnesota enjoyed the services of an iconic player in Kevin Garnett for 12 years. The system was different then, allowing the Wolves to pay Garnet as much as $28 million for his age-27 season. That same system also hampered Minnesota's ability to surround Garnett with suitable talent, though much of that blame falls on team management. In any event, Garnett was traded for future assets, the Wolves sank, and Love emerged as the next franchise player.

Minnesota has since done a poor job of surrounding Love with winning talent. Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic are fine supporting players, but the Timberwolves have whiffed on far too many draft picks. Worse, they haven't been able to target the right veteran acquisitions to move the needle. Nevertheless, if you buy the argument that Minnesota's scoring margin last season marks them more as a 48-win team than a 40-win club, then the Wolves are closer to returning to contention than they've been since Garnett departed.
If you trade Love now, how to you spin that to your fan base? "Hey, he was going to leave anyway, so we got what we could, and now we'll find another star." If the fans don't exactly buy into that plan, you end up with plummeting attendance. As it is, the Timberwolves were 27th in that area last season. Another rebuild could throw the viability of the market into question, even though the issue is really one with basketball operations.

Maybe it's true that Love is already musing about a new home after next season. Fine. It's his prerogative, but a lot can change in a year. The Wolves will eventually find a new coach, and if I'm Saunders, I include Love as part of that process. What style does he want to play? What sort of teammates does Love think he needs to make it work? Keep him in the loop. If he's frustrated, empower Love by giving him partial ownership of the situation. It might not ultimately make a difference, but this is the kind of approach that seems to be becoming increasingly necessary for rebuilding teams. Eventually, stars will have other options.

To me, the downside isn't as bad as it seems. There is the aforementioned trade-deadline possibility. Or if you can't convince Love to stay, then he and his new team may well be amenable to a sign-and-trade. The worst-case scenario is that you let him walk, and a fat-sized portion of cap space opens up. None of these are ideal outcomes, but there is no certainty that a summer trade of Love is going to be any better.

The bottom line is that teams are in the business of pursuing championships. Minnesota's odds of eventually winning that pursuit are better with Love than without. Even the possibility that he might want to stay beyond next season gives the Timberwolves better long-term championship odds than another rebuild, which may not yield another player of Love's caliber for 20 years. Trust your team-building skills. Go all-out to make a giant leap in 2014-15. If you succeed and Love departs anyway, at least you can say you did all that you could. And your fans might even believe you.

[Papalrep]

Thanks, Mr. Glasshands, much appreciated

[Coolbreeze44]

Interesting perspective. To me it really depends on what Love has indicated to management. Is there any chance he stays? That really could sway my opinion on the whole thing. And secondly, what kind of offers are we going to get? I happen to believe we might get an offer that would set us up for the future better than what a future with Love looks like. So I think it remains to be seen what the best approach is. For now, I think Love has told them he's gone one way or another. In that case we should move him sooner rather than later.

[bleedspeed]

Cool,

What if Love said
1. If we don't make the playoffs I am likely gone.
2. You need to trade Shabazz and Dieng because they are going to cut into my rebound number.
3. The new coach better make me the center of this team or I am gone
4. I don't want to be here. Money is important so trade me so you can get something for me and I can get what I want.
5. Buy the Star Tribune and let me fire Sid Hartman or I am gone.

What would you do for each of these?

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

Cool, If Love said if we don't make the playoffs I am likely gone. What do you do?

make the playoffs

[Monster]

#2 and #5 LOL

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Good perspective and certainly one that has been advocated here by a few folks. I happen to think that there won't be a massive bidding war that drives up the value for Love and Flip will be underwhelmed by the offers, forcing him to keep Love for now. But we'll see what happens.....

[Kevin Glasshands [enjin:6642795]]

Also on ESPN, I think this kind of fits well with this discussion.

Newton also said the team's preference is to keep star forward Kevin Love, who can opt out of his contract after next season. But if the Wolves do decide to trade him, Newton said, "You can best believe we'll be a better team based on what happens."

In terms of what Cool is saying, from this quote it seems like Newton and the Wolves aren't willing to take any steps back. It could potentially see us trading for picks THIS season, but it seems likely that we would take a deal with established players. I certainly don't see us favoring any deals that offer picks in 2015, 2016, etc. however.

[Coolbreeze44]

Bleed,

1) Do whatever is necessary and hope Love doesn't get hurt.
2) I'll hurt Love myself and then we don't have to worry about it anymore
3) Any coach would be crazy not to
4) Trade him for best offer available
5) Buy the Star Tribune and convince the rest of the media world Minny is the best place to play