Predict the rotation: Opening Day and June 1

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

The Twins have more options at SP than any year I can remember, and it has never been more difficult to predict what the rotation will be. That's a good thing. Let's predict what the rotation will be on opening day and once it settles in on June 1. Despite the Santana rumors by LaVelle yesterday, there's no chance he's ready to go by early summer.

Opening Day:

Nolasco
Hughes
Correia
Deduno
Pelfrey

June 1:

Nolasco
Hughes
Deduno
Pelfrey
Gibson

My predictions exclude Scott Diamond, leaving the Twins with an all-righty rotation. It also doesn't include any prospects jumping up from AA...I think the money thrown at Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfrey signals the Twins' intention to give their prospects one more year of seasoning. Nolasco and Hughes will have to be hurt to be left out of the rotation.

Correia was great last year and a huge surprise. But when he's bad, he's very hittable. I'm afraid he will come back to earth this spring, and work himself out of the rotation by summer.

Deduno's crazy ball movement was a treat to watch last year until he got hurt. I don't know that I have ever seen so many weak rollers back to the mound. He seems to be healthy, and I say he builds on last year's success.

I expect I will be the only one here to choose Pelfrey. I love tall pitchers unafraid to go inside, and you can't ignore the fact that he led all Twins pitchers in Wins Over Replacement last year. Plus, he's more than a year removed from TJ surgery, and history has shown that pitchers need that year to reach optimal performance.

Also more than a year away from his TJ surgery is Kirk Gibson, and he was great in the minors last year, but not in The Show. I think Correia takes his spot on Opening Day, but Kirk is dominant enough during the spring in AAA to earn a starting spot in the bigs.

Bold prediction: Twins lower their ERA by more than a run this year.

Man, the kool aid tastes really good in February :D !

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I honestly don't talk about Pelfrey to annoy you guys since I know he's not popular on this board. I just really think he's poised for a breakout season...I agree that he may still be annoying to watch with runners on base.

But I did find Tom Kelly's quote in the StarTribune today interesting...TK may be a dull broadcaster, but there aren't many who know baseball like he does. He told Pat Reusse that the three pitchers he expected to improve the most over last year were Pelfrey, then Hughes, then Deduno. I agree with his assessment about Pelfrey (finally recovered from TJ surgery) and Hughes (happy to be out of Yankee Stadium), but I think the 3rd most improvement will come from Gibson. He'll also be in his second year of recovery after Tommy John, and that's when pitchers generally make the biggest improvement.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Opening Day:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Deduno
4. Correa
5. Pelfrey

June 1:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Deduno
4. Correa
5. Gibson

August 1:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Deduno
4. Gibson
5. Meyer

I still firmly believe that Pelfrey sucks ass. He'll likely be in the rotation come Opening Day and I hate it. I really hope he isn't, though. I have zero faith in him. Hell, I have negative faith in him; it's that bad. If he is in the ro', he won't be come June. Hope I'm wrong for the sake of our Twins and Terry Ryan. Maybe we can deal him for anything come July or before that.

I like Correa actually. He usually kept us in ball games last year and I'll gladly take that type of season from him again. No standout reason for me to think he'll do otherwise. I think we'll deal him before the trade deadline, though, and give Meyer some MLB time.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Opening Day:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Deduno
4. Correa
5. Pelfrey

June 1:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Deduno
4. Correa
5. Gibson

August 1:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Deduno
4. Gibson
5. Meyer

I still firmly believe that Pelfrey sucks ass. He'll likely be in the rotation come Opening Day and I hate it. I really hope he isn't, though. I have zero faith in him. Hell, I have negative faith in him; it's that bad. If he is in the ro', he won't be come June. Hope I'm wrong for the sake of our Twins and Terry Ryan. Maybe we can deal him for anything come July or before that.

I like Correa actually. He usually kept us in ball games last year and I'll gladly take that type of season from him again. No standout reason for me to think he'll do otherwise. I think we'll deal him before the trade deadline, though, and give Meyer some MLB time.

I understand your frustration with Pelfrey, cam. He slows the game down to a crawl when runners are on base, and he really struggled the first half of last year. But I see him as a guy that can help us turn things around, and I'm heartened that a talent evaluator like TK predicts he will make the biggest leap this year.

I like your addition of the August 1 prediction, and adding Meyer to the rotation by the end of the year. I see him as one of the five too, but more likely because someone gets injured...rotations seldom get through a season unscathed. I would love to see Correa pitch like he did last year. We could then possibly deal him to a contender for a SS prospect. In fact, I think we have enough young starting pitching close to being ready that we might be able to deal any of Hughes, Nolasco or Correa at the deadline if the return is attractive.

[Jester1534]

Opening Day:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Pelfrey
4. Correa
5. Gibson

June 1:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Pelfrey
4. Deduno
5. Gibson

August 1:
1. Nolasco
2. Hughes
3. Deduno
4. Gibson
5. Meyer

I think Pelfrey or Correa gets traded at the trade deadline, somebody gonna need 3 or 4 starter for push in the playoffs and we have a surplus of those lol

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

The only issue I have with your take, jester, is that Deduno is out of options. I'm almost certain somebody would claim him if the Twins tried to send him down and sneak him through waivers, so I think you're saying he will be in the bullpen to start the season. I don't know if I see relief as Sam's best role.

[Jester1534]

See I'm the opposite because long I think Sam can make a great reliver. He can come in and get a strike out at anytime and with his movement get some double play balls.

Also because of injury problems Sam has never thrown more than 140 innings in his career and that was when he was 22. I just think he could make the transition to the pen just like Perk did. I'm not writing him off as a starter, just with the contracts we've signed there gonna play Pelfrey and Correa. Plus I been on the record before saying if were gonna use the TJ excuse with Pelfrey we should with Gibson. This guy is a former top 50 prospect and was supposed to be a #2 or middle of the rotation guy.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

See I'm the opposite because long I think Sam can make a great reliver. He can come in and get a strike out at anytime and with his movement get some double play balls.

Also because of injury problems Sam has never thrown more than 140 innings in his career and that was when he was 22. I just think he could make the transition to the pen just like Perk did. I'm not writing him off as a starter, just with the contracts we've signed there gonna play Pelfrey and Correa. Plus I been on the record before saying if were gonna use the TJ excuse with Pelfrey we should with Gibson. This guy is a former top 50 prospect and was supposed to be a #2 or middle of the rotation guy.

That all makes sense to me, and I guess I agree that Sam could be effective as a reliever too. I just want to be sure they don't send him down, because I think there is no chance he clears waivers. I watched him last summer against the Angels before he got hurt, and I have never seen so many hitters shaking their heads as they headed back to the dugout after another weak grounder back to the mound. He has some special movement on the ball.

[Jester1534]

Long I agree with everything you said it's just he hasn't been able to stay healthy his whole career and he's only getting older.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

None of us mentioned Scott Diamond as a possible 5th starter, but I have a feeling he may turn out to be the guy. I don't like it, but they seem to be giving him every opportunity. I didn't think he was very good yesterday, but the press is talking about how it kept him in the running. There's this perception that you need to have at least one lefty starter, but I say BS. You run your best 5 guys out there, and both Deduno and Gibson are outpitching Diamond this spring. I hope Diamond gets shelled in his next start, so the Twins can't make this bogus move.