LST's playoff projection model

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I expect that Tim will be updating his KOM thread now that playoffs seem to be a possibility, but since he and I use different models, I thought I would start my own thread. Interestingly enough, we both have the Wolves and Suns tied for the 8th spot (I also have Memphis tied), but he has them at 48 wins and I have them at 46.

My model treats Dallas, Golden State, Memphis, Phoenix and the Wolves equally in predicting wins and losses. Without getting into nauseating detail, it predicts that all five will win home and away against the league's many doormats, lose home and away to 4 elite teams (Miami, Indy, OkC, and San Anton), and win at home and lose on the road against everyone else. It does not factor in any impact of BTBs.

I thought about including Portland, Houston and especially the Clippers as elite teams, but decided not to. Thus the five teams I am tracking are projected to beat these near-elite teams at home. This assumption comes into play tonight, as the Suns are hosting the Clippers and projected by the model to win, even though Vegas has them as a 4 point underdog (perhaps overvaluing the impact of the Clippers recent roster additions). If the Suns lose, they will fall into 10th place in my model with 45 wins.

Here is the latest projection:

6.Golden State 51 wins
7. Dallas 50 wins
8.Memphis 46 wins
9.Suns 46 wins
9.Wolves 46 wins

The Wolves have a remaining home game with the Suns, and if they win, will hold the tiebreaker against Phoenix. Minnesota has two games left with Memphis, and if they split them, the season series will be 2-2 and the next tiebreaker is record within the conference, where unfortunately Memphis currently hold a 2 1/2 game advantage over us. As I understand it, Memphis also holds the 3-way tiebreaker because of their superior head to head record among all three teams, which is why I have them in the 8th spot above.

I think this model is very realistic because the five contending teams are all fairly equal to me. The fact that the Wolves make up 5 games over the rest of the season reflects how much easier their schedule is compared to the other four teams.

Go Clippers, well, at least tonight!

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

GS won a game they were supposed to lose, but more importantly, the Suns lost a game they were supposed to win and fall behind the Wolves and Memphis Here are the new projections:

6.Golden State 52 wins
7.Dallas 50 wins
8 Memphis 46
9 Wolves 46
10 Phoenix 45



The Suns looked pretty good tonight, but their schedule is brutal and a lot of losses are coming. Plus they lost Barbosa with a broken hand tonight.

GS and Dallas are so far ahead in the projected standings that I'm going to exclude them if things don't change soon.

Yes, since Memphis wins the tiebreaker with us currently, we're in the dreaded Kahn position of missing the playoffs and losing our draft pick. Many miles to go before we sleep though.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Dallas is just half a game ahead of Phoenix right now. They've been very prone to losing games they shouldn't this year by coming out flat or just losing a close one. I doubt they fall all the way out of the playoffs, but I it's not impossible. Still, the team to key in on is Phoenix. They must lose.

[markkbu [enjin:6588958]]

Nice model LST. Thanks for posting and explaining. I agree with how you have it constructed.

Ultimately, I think this race will come down to our ability to win games on the road that we "shouldn't" win.

Our last road stint gives us a bit of reason for optimism

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Next 5.

DAL: at DEN, vs POR, vs IND, at GS, at UTA

PHO: vs OKC, at GS, at LAC, vs CLE, at BOS

MIN: vs NYK, vs DET, vs TOR, vs MIL, at CHA

Wolves should be right in the thick of things after the next five games. I mean 1 or 1.5 games out of a playoff seed. Fuck you Bill Simmons.

[Porckchop]

Obviously the Wolves will have a hard time winning a series against any of the top four but which team do they match up best against?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Obviously the Wolves will have a hard time winning a series against any of the top four but which team do they match up best against?

Clippers and OKC.

[Porckchop]

I like their chances against OkC better than the Clips. Griffin seems to match Love in points (atleast close) which leaves the rest of the team to outplay Paul, Crawford , Jordan, etc. I dont like any of the matchups.
When u play OKC u let KD get his and hope someone can match him offensively ( Love ). Then u hope Westbrook gets selfish and takes bad shots. The rest of the team the wolves matchup favorably with.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I agree Pork Chop. Plus Barea seems to play well against OKC for whatever reason. Pekovic dominates Perkins. Love dominates Ibaka. Just have to hold Durant under 40 and contain Westbrook.

[thedoper]

Obviously the Wolves will have a hard time winning a series against any of the top four but which team do they match up best against?

I think the only chance we would really have in the 1st round is against the Spurs. This is assuming they start physically breaking down. We aren't going to get any of the calls we have gotten all year if we are in a playoff series which would make it virtually impossible to win with our shooting and D. OKC and the Clippers will have the refs behind them, which would be particularly difficult with the physical style that OKC and LA's front court plays.