McCollum vs. Muhammad, revisited

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I know this discussion will be more meaningful as the regular season progresses (with Dieng added to the equation), but there is an interesting discussion on the rubechat board. I don't participate in that board other than reading.

The discussion is about the scoring efficiency and shooting percentage of the two players in college. Since Muhammad's lack of efficiency has been brought up on this board, I thought it would be interesting to add some stats. A Shabazz supporter on rubechat points out that their shooting percentages were remarkably equal during their careers...exactly the same on threes and Shabazz just .4 % better overall. A McCollum supporter argues that points per shot is a better measure of efficiency, and CJ averaged 1.35 per shot and Shabazz only 1.25. I would argue that it is fairer to measure their respective efficiencies for just their freshman years, and they were equal at 1.25 points per shot as freshmen.

I know I have made this point before, but you also need to consider the quality of the defenses they were facing. My daughter went to Colgate, so I am quite familiar with the quality of the Patriot League. Think Ivy League, or even high school plus. He fattened his statistics against players who will never have a sniff of playing in the NBA. Take a look at what he did in the 2012 NCAA tournament in his two games. Everyone marvels at his 30 points against Duke, but in his two games against Duke and Xavier, he needed 46 shots to score 44 points! You will see the same kind of inefficiency every time he ventured out of the comfort of the Patriot League.

I will continue to maintain that Flip dodged a bullet in avoiding CJ, and turning that pick into a comparably efficient player in Shabazz plus a shot blocking center.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Good post lst.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

You can't make the level of competition argument when Lillard came in last year and did just fine. If the guy can play, then he will be able to adapt to the next level. Comparing their freshmen years only is also not smart because you aren't getting CJ at his Freshmen year level of play, where you are with Bazz. You could also argue that CJ was the only player who had to be defended on his team where as there were several other options at UCLA that had to be guarded just as much as Shabazz. The main difference between the two and how they score is CJ does it by creating the shot himself. Bazz can't do that because he can't shoot off the dribble well at all, hence why his only good summer league game involved lots of catch and shoot.

At the end of the day, Bazz will excel off the ball and CJ on the ball. The problem with that is Bazz has an on the ball mentality when he doesn't have the ability to match that mindset. CJ may never start in this league, but he is a much safer pick because he can get his own shot which is a skill that fits on any team. Bazz may become a starter, but the only way he will do that is if he gets the 3 and D down to a science and becomes a very good off the ball player. You just don't see guys who can't create their own shot become good at it at this level. CJ at a minimum has that ability against second units. If Bazz embraces the off-ball role, then the pick will be worth it, but if he fights it, then he won't make it on our team.

[Monster]

If you want a non-star player I'd rather have a guy that has the skill to score off the ball instead of a guy that needs the ball in his hands. Just sayin.

[BowenArrow [enjin:6742086]]

McCollum - 6.4
Age 21
$2.317 million

Muhammad -6.6
Age 20
$1.87 million

both backup SG's for now I'd go with Muhammad

[Coolbreeze44]

Yes but is CJ a knucklehead?

[mjs34]

If you want a non-star player I'd rather have a guy that has the skill to score off the ball instead of a guy that needs the ball in his hands. Just sayin.

Why do you think that CJ couldn't score off the ball?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

First off, these guys play different positions. Shabazz is a SF and CJ is more of a combo guard. Second, in terms of scoring efficiency, TS% is the best metric and CJ sported a 59 TS% as a freshman vs. Shabazz's 53%. The reason is because he took anad made a higher volume of free throws and 3 pointers, two of the most efficient shots in basketball. Also, they weren't equal in PPS as freshman. McCollum averaged 19 points on 13 shots and Shabazz averaged 18 points on 14 shots. So basically McCollum scored more points and did so with better efficiency than Shabazz.

Now let's turn to the other metrics. Other than rebounding and keeping his TOs down, Shabazz is an abject failure as a prospect, averaging .8 assists, .7 steals, and .1 blocks per game. I don't know if I can find another first rounder in the history of the draft with such a pathetic combination of numbers in those three categories. McCollum averaged 2.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and .2 blocks per game as a freshman while leading his team in scoring.

So let's see, Shabazz can't score efficiently, can't dribble, can't pass, and can't get defensive deflections. Plus he has problems following simple rules.

I just don't see the comparison. I'm not suggesting that McCollum is going to light the NBA on fire. But I am suggesting that Shabazz will likely flame out of the league or be a fringe journeyman unless he fashions himself into a catch and shoot 3 & D guy, which will require a complete re-work of his mental make-up and focus. That's a tough thing to see happening.

[Lipoli390]

Q is right. The numbers tell the tale. But the tale gets even more on-sided when you consider the knucklehead factor. I was recently reading a draft analysis written before the draft. That analysis said that Flip had liked Shabazz for a long time. So no matter what Flip might say now, getting Shabazz was a big motivation behind the deal. I'll venture a prediction that Shabazz will go down as Flip's folly.

I would have drafted McCollum. If Flip really wanted a 2 for 1 and a better shot at getting Dieng, he should have drafted Karesev at #14. Drafting Shabazz looks to me like a big mistake. Sure hope I'm wrong, but the evidence suggests I'll end up being right.

[Monster]

If you want a non-star player I'd rather have a guy that has the skill to score off the ball instead of a guy that needs the ball in his hands. Just sayin.

Why do you think that CJ couldn't score off the ball?

I never said he couldn't. I just made a simple statement.