Why I think the wolves are screwed without a big trade.

[horatio81 [enjin:7751176]]

The blueprint for small/medium market success in the NBA is clear as day: suck hard for three to four years, pick high in associated drafts, land enough young talent to sustain an extended period of relevancy. You don't need to nail every pick, but I think you absolutely need two home runs, minimum.

That is to say: if you don't come out of a "down period" with two legit star players, you're doomed. You won't have enough talent to contend, and you won't be awful enough to garner more high draft picks. Your one star won't be happy with mediocrity, and he will force a trade or leave outright to team up with another star player (or three).

Cleveland has been terrible since Lebron left for Miami. They've had a ton of top five picks in that span. They've managed only one great player, and his production is enough to boost them all the way into the crappy part of the lottery. Now he's going to leave, and they're going to be back at square one.

But what if they had hit on two picks? What if Bennett was a game changer instead of a bust? Suddenly you have two developing young studs. You have a foundation. You have hope of contending in 2-3 years if you can add a few more pieces.

But that's all predicated on having more than one star player.

Look at Houston. Did they draft any stars? Not really. Parsons is emerging, sure, but their gm pretty much crushed it in turning a boatload of assets into two great players. Now they're "in"; they're going to contend for years, and free agents see it. They will join that foundation, often at a discount.

Minnesota doesn't have that foundation. We emerged from the dark with I've great player when we needed two. If we want to join the contenders in the west, we need to do everything we can to get that second star. This is why every one but Love is 100% in play.

If some team flames out unexpectedly in the playoffs, we should be ready to hand them everything in exchange for one of their star players. We need that number two. Otherwise Love will (and should) leave. We deserve as much for effing up our picks so badly.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I don't think anyone would disagree that this club has screwed up its drafting for years. I also think most agree that everyone except Love is available for trade. But I'm not on board with the conclusion that we are screwed. My optimism about this club is high right now, based on three factors:

1) The recent improved play, especially in our young stars Love and Rubio
2) The leap I expect the Wolves to make when they bring in a new coach
3) The prospect of getting a very good player in this stacked draft...could be that second star we need

I know this is a pet peeve with me, but I also get annoyed when the concept "small market" is used for the Twin Cites, because we are not by any measure small market. As the accompanying market list shows, we are in the upper division in the NBA in terms of market size, and much larger than some very successful franchises.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2011/03/nba-market-size-numbers-game/

While I agree that a second star would really help this team, I'm not confident that we have the pieces to execute a trade that would bring that second star. My preference is to stay away form large trades, and instead enjoy the organic improvement the above three steps will bring.

[Lipoli390]

I agree with Long. I don't see a realistic trade yielding us a second star. I still think we ought to shop Pekovic aggressively this summer as a way to upgrade our wing positions and our interior defense. But unfortunately I don't see Pekovic bringing us a star. Otherwise, our fate hinges more than anything on three things:

1. Rubio improving his shot, especially his ability to finish in the paint with layups and floaters;

2. The development of Shabazz and Dieng; and

3. How well the Wolves draft this summer.

These last two are key. Regardless of market size, the path to success in the NBA is almost always the draft. You have to draft well. It's that simple.

[horatio81 [enjin:7751176]]

Re: small market, I said small/medium, which amounts to everywhere that isn't a major media market. Minnesota gets a slight downgrade for climate as well.

I'm not saying we're screwed without recourse. I just firmly believe we need to aggressively pursue any trade that might land us another top 15ish player regardless of the cost. The evidence for needing two such players to contend is beyond overwhelming. We should have gotten two out of all out lottery picks, but we didn't. Now we're waiting for one to fall out of the sky or praying someone on this squad makes the leap.

Meanwhile, pek and Rubio, for all their relative " newness" to the NBA, have been playing pro ball for a long time. Chances are very good they won't make any serious leaps to superstardom. That's why we should be open to trading both of them, plus picks , for any star who becomes available in the offseason.

Our best bet is to snag such a player is from a team that falls hard in the playoffs . They might be ready to shake things up or even blow it up, and we could benefit.

[TAFKASP]

These last two are key. Regardless of market size, the path to success in the NBA is almost always the draft. You have to draft well. It's that simple.

Thats the real kicker. They have to hit next year or lose their best player, yet building a small market team through free agency is pretty much impossible.

[The Rage Monster [enjin:8010341]]

This should be changed to the wolves are screwed without drafting better. What do Kobe, Roy Hibbert, Rondo, Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday, Marc Gasol, and Tony Parker have in common? They were all drafted 13 (wolves spot) or lower. I can just about guarantee a star type player will be available when we pick, we just need to find him for once.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Agree with Horatio.

Pek and Rubio are nice complementary pieces... not stars. They should not be grouped in the same category as guys like Love. They haven't done anything close to deserve that.

More importantly, they haven't shown anything close to being able to make the leap to get there. Pekovic is nearly 30. He has a unique style that is pretty damn effective offensively. But he hasn't even made it to 2,000 minutes in any NBA season yet. And without + athleticism, do you see him making the leap this late in his career? And if so... for how long?

Rubio is... well... Rubio. He's basically the same guy today as he was as a rookie. Another unique skillset. Brilliant passer, ball hawk, horrendous shooter and finisher. But he hasn't shown the ability to improve marginally in any tangible way in 3 seasons... why do we think he'll suddenly improve significantly at this point?


[Note: As far as "small market"... I see it more as "prime markets" and "wastelands." Not in real life. But in the perceptions of NBA players. And those guys don't live in a reality any of us live in. Minnesota is perceived as a "small market" by those who matter... the guys with all the power in the NBA. Plus, MN is really super duper cold. And white. And has historically been one of the most floundering franchises in sports. It's not a prime market for NBA players.]

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

This should be changed to the wolves are screwed without drafting better. What do Kobe, Roy Hibbert, Rondo, Kawhi Leonard, Jrue Holiday, Marc Gasol, and Tony Parker have in common? They were all drafted 13 (wolves spot) or lower. I can just about guarantee a star type player will be available when we pick, we just need to find him for once.

Couldn't agree with you more. Houston would not be as good as they are without Chandler Parsons and Terrence Jones, both of whom were low-ish draft picks and have been producing strong results since they were rookies. Smart drafting is the absolute key to success and you can get very, very good players almost anywhere in the draft. It's identifying them that's the hard part!

[shahidi124 [enjin:6591729]]

Agree with Horatio.

Pek and Rubio are nice complementary pieces... not stars. They should not be grouped in the same category as guys like Love. They haven't done anything close to deserve that.

More importantly, they haven't shown anything close to being able to make the leap to get there. Pekovic is nearly 30. He has a unique style that is pretty damn effective offensively. But he hasn't even made it to 2,000 minutes in any NBA season yet. And without + athleticism, do you see him making the leap this late in his career? And if so... for how long?]

Pekovic just turned 28 in January. He is top 3 in terms of offensive centers and has improved greatly over the past 2 years. I don't think he'll ever become a superstar, but he is a well above average starting center on a contender.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

The only way Pek is ever a Center on a contender is if he is next to a Anthony Davis, Ibaka, or Henson type 4. Rim protection is just too major at this point in the league's development to have Pek next to a 4 who also can't protect the rim and realistically call that team a contender. The only way a Love/Pek frontcourt works on a contender level is if you have 3 shut down perimeter defenders on the floor with them. Both Love and Pek would benefit greatly playing next to a guy who protects the rim, but unfortunately we have them playing next to each other. Our defense was actually playing well overall with a guy like Ronny starting (had more games giving up under a 100 points with a winning result in 1 week than we did with Pek all year at that point), so does it make sense to try to deal Pek for a first rounder in this years draft?

Utah has a top ten pick that might be low enough to get for Pek (and they have a late first so the deal wouldn't kick them entirely out of the draft). Philly has two firsts the second of which should still be a decent pick that they get from NO. Cleveland might end up with a decent first round pick. I would consider trading Pek for one of those 3 picks and a filler piece if needed. At the end of the day, Pek misses a decent chunk of time with injuries every year and just doesn't fit next to Love defensively. While it wouldn't be ideal to have Ronny as a starting center, it would allow us to get two possible picks in this draft that is loaded and see who falls to us. I think we have seen enough Ricky/Love/Pek to know that they aren't a title contender core, so I think it is time to start maximizing value for a guy like Pek and deal him to a team that is stocked with young guys already with extra assets that could use a very solid vet. I've always seen Pek as expendable on the road to surrounding Love with talent just because they never fit defensively.