What I was right and wrong about-Twins edition

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Time to pat ourselves on the back, and also take ownership for bad takes:

What I was right about:

1) I suggested two months ago that pitchers had figured out Dozier, and that he would struggle with the steady diet of breaking balls...and he has. He hit .206 in July and .207 (with only 3 HRs) in August so far. I love Dozier, but he needs to be dropped down in the order. They need to go Buxton, Mauer, Rosario, Sano, and drop Brian down to 6 or 7. And if he can't figure out how to hit the breaking ball, Polanco is ready to go at 2b...much better second baseman than SS.

2) Mike Pelfrey is a major league pitcher. He has been much criticized on this board, but I've always liked his fondness for pitching inside and the movement on his 2 seamer, and so far this year he has been our best starting pitcher.

What I was wrong about:

1) The Jepson trade. I loved the pitcher we gave up as a prospect, but he was hit hard in his first start after the trade and Jepson has been terrific since his first appearance. Fien, Jepson and May give the Twins three hard throwers in the bullpen to get them to Perkins. I didn't like the trade because I had given up on playoffs this year...now it looks good that Terry Ryan wasn't so quick to give up.

2) Ervin Santana. I was happy about the signing, and even positive about it after he was suspended for the first half of the season. I've always loved his tough slider, and thought he would be our best starter. It turns out he has been our worst in his first 9 starts. It seems like he has lost command of his slider, and his fastball has never been a great pitch. Not having him for the playoffs, if we can sneak in there, doesn't seem so bad right now.

[Monster]

I was wrong about the Twins playing well enough to be have a shot at the WC spot but part of that is being wrong about other team's too. Nobody is running away with that 2nd spot which gives the Teins a chance. They are only 1.5 games back right now.

LST spends more sleepless nights worrying about Dozier than Brian's mother. Lol The link below is obviously VERY positive on Dozier (they left his slump pretty much out of the article) but it does talk about his approach to non fast balls and some stats which LST should find interesting.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/08/21/brian-dozier-powers-up-even-more-and-becomes-twins-anchor/32120569/

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Ha, I do worry a lot about Dozier, monster...but mostly because he's one of my favorite players, and I want him to learn to hit the breaking ball better. Thanks for the article...there are some interesting stats about his improvement against pitches other than fast balls. But overall, I don't think the author did his homework very well, and focused on total season stats rather than the bad results since the all star break. My son and I watch a lot of Twins games, and we used to ask each other "Why would a pitcher ever give this guy a fast ball?". I think the answer was two-fold: Pitchers are conditioned to not walk middle infielders who bat before the power spots in the lineup, and as a result, these guys see a lot of fast balls. Secondly, I find that most pitchers are not very smart. They see a relatively small second baseman, and they conclude they are not going to get hurt with fat fast balls. They were wrong.

But even a dumb major leaguer couldn't ignore what Dozier did in May and June. Getting a steady diet of fastballs, he hit .287 with 14 HRS, an OBP percentage of .355 and a terrific OPS of .940. In July, I started to notice pitchers taking a different approach to Dozier...fewer fast balls up in the zone, and much more off speed stuff...and I commented here that I was worried about his ability to adjust to this. Unfortunately, his results have been even worse than I anticipated. In July, his average and OBP dropped to .206 and .282, and his OPS plummeted 225 points to .715. Still, I was heartened because he still hit 6 home runs during the month, and at least half of them were off breaking balls. But as the breaking ball frequency has increased, August has gotten even worse. His average for the month is .207 and his OBP has fallen to a ridiculously low .261...not at all what you want out of a table setter in the first or second hole. And with his home runs dropping to 3, his OPS has dropped another 100 points to .615...325 points lower than it was during May and June.

Predictably, the Twins offense is really struggling too, despite the contributions of rookies Sano and Rosario and Hicks' resurgence. Torii Hunter has to take some of the blame, but I put a lot of the blame on Molitor. How is an offense supposed to be productive with Dozier's .261 on-base percentage batting first or second, and Mauer's anemic .379 slugging average in the three hole? I'm guessing both of those numbers are at the bottom of the league, and in two vitally important spots in the order. No wonder the Twins are having a hard time scoring runs.

One thing I like about Molitor, though, is his general willingness to make changes. He has dropped the slumping Hunter down to 7th in the line up, something Gardy never would have done. And he sometimes moves Mauer to his obvious best spot in the batting order...second. The next move has to be dropping Dozier down in the line up if he continues to miss breaking balls. Rosario seems to be the kind of guy who would not be intimidated by taking on more responsibility, and his slugging average of .443 is much more deserving of the 3 hole than Mauer. Here's what I want to see when Hicks returns:

Buxton
Mauer
Rosario
Sano
Plouffe
Hicks
Dozier
Suzuki
Escobar/Nunez

That is my line up against RHP. Against lefties, I swap Hicks and Rosario, and even get Hunter in sometimes for Rosario in the 6 hole to give him some at bats. Dozier is a well-liked guy and kind of a sacred cow, but so is Hunter, so I think Mollie can make this move.

[Monster]

Good post LST. I think Dozier stayed where he was in the lineup for 2 reasons.

1. You give the benefit of the doubt to a guy who has been your best hitter for a large chunk of the season and has been a pretty good hitter the last 3 seasons.

2. Who were the obvious better options? Sure at some point maybe anyone but monitor seemed to wait till someone proved they were the guy which for a while was Hicks and now that he made the change it may be easier to plug different guys in spots especially since Dozier is struggling.

Hopefully Dozier gets back on track it would be fun to see this team make a little run with some of the vets getting hot.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Good point about the vets, monster. Recently it has been our youngsters that have been carrying us, but let's not forget that Mauer, Hunter, Dozier and Suzuki have all been all-stars in their careers, and have the potential to go on a hot streak. If two or more can do that, and our rookies keep hitting, this club can stay in the race. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

[Monster]

Good point about the vets, monster. Recently it has been our youngsters that have been carrying us, but let's not forget that Mauer, Hunter, Dozier and Suzuki have all been all-stars in their careers, and have the potential to go on a hot streak. If two or more can do that, and our rookies keep hitting, this club can stay in the race. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Yep those guys have real potential to be reasonably productive. Another possibility is a couple or even one vet relief pitcher to get on a roll. Duensing has seemed to me to be a guy that goes through long stretches of good and bad so maybe he could find himself for the next 40 games. Maybe last night's appearance will really get Fien rolling. It's not like this team is a legit contender or anything but we are right there and who knows once you get to the playoffs who knows what can happen. Of course I would be happy just playing around .500 ball to finish out the season.

[Jester1534]

Hmm things I was right about.

1) Sano should've been with this team at the end of April. Not much needs to be said here but this guy bat was ready after a month in the minors there was no reason to hold him out so long.

2) Jepsen trade, think where we be without him right now, with perk being hurt.

3) I said Kyle Gibson would take the next step and he has.

4) last one I'll say everyone was on this too but how good the Hunter signing was for this team. Veteran leadership and mentoring the young guys. I look forward to him teaching Buxton for the rest of the season and if you don't think some of Hicks success isn't attributed to Hunter help mentor him I think your crazy lol.

Things I was wrong about, absolutely nothing ;) lol jk

1) Mike Pelfrey Mike Pelfrey Mike Pelfrey happy LST lol for all the reason you stated above.

2) Dozier slump man it's getting bad, I wonder if he's injured at all.

3) Trevor Plouffe Defense, I was very against bringing him back because I didn't think his bat outweighed his defense. Man though it's quite remarakble the improvement he's made.

[Jester1534]

Ha, I do worry a lot about Dozier, monster...but mostly because he's one of my favorite players, and I want him to learn to hit the breaking ball better. Thanks for the article...there are some interesting stats about his improvement against pitches other than fast balls. But overall, I don't think the author did his homework very well, and focused on total season stats rather than the bad results since the all star break. My son and I watch a lot of Twins games, and we used to ask each other "Why would a pitcher ever give this guy a fast ball?". I think the answer was two-fold: Pitchers are conditioned to not walk middle infielders who bat before the power spots in the lineup, and as a result, these guys see a lot of fast balls. Secondly, I find that most pitchers are not very smart. They see a relatively small second baseman, and they conclude they are not going to get hurt with fat fast balls. They were wrong.

But even a dumb major leaguer couldn't ignore what Dozier did in May and June. Getting a steady diet of fastballs, he hit .287 with 14 HRS, an OBP percentage of .355 and a terrific OPS of .940. In July, I started to notice pitchers taking a different approach to Dozier...fewer fast balls up in the zone, and much more off speed stuff...and I commented here that I was worried about his ability to adjust to this. Unfortunately, his results have been even worse than I anticipated. In July, his average and OBP dropped to .206 and .282, and his OPS plummeted 225 points to .715. Still, I was heartened because he still hit 6 home runs during the month, and at least half of them were off breaking balls. But as the breaking ball frequency has increased, August has gotten even worse. His average for the month is .207 and his OBP has fallen to a ridiculously low .261...not at all what you want out of a table setter in the first or second hole. And with his home runs dropping to 3, his OPS has dropped another 100 points to .615...325 points lower than it was during May and June.

Predictably, the Twins offense is really struggling too, despite the contributions of rookies Sano and Rosario and Hicks' resurgence. Torii Hunter has to take some of the blame, but I put a lot of the blame on Molitor. How is an offense supposed to be productive with Dozier's .261 on-base percentage batting first or second, and Mauer's anemic .379 slugging average in the three hole? I'm guessing both of those numbers are at the bottom of the league, and in two vitally important spots in the order. No wonder the Twins are having a hard time scoring runs.

One thing I like about Molitor, though, is his general willingness to make changes. He has dropped the slumping Hunter down to 7th in the line up, something Gardy never would have done. And he sometimes moves Mauer to his obvious best spot in the batting order...second. The next move has to be dropping Dozier down in the line up if he continues to miss breaking balls. Rosario seems to be the kind of guy who would not be intimidated by taking on more responsibility, and his slugging average of .443 is much more deserving of the 3 hole than Mauer. Here's what I want to see when Hicks returns:

Buxton
Mauer
Rosario
Sano
Plouffe
Hicks
Dozier
Suzuki
Escobar/Nunez

That is my line up against RHP. Against lefties, I swap Hicks and Rosario, and even get Hunter in sometimes for Rosario in the 6 hole to give him some at bats. Dozier is a well-liked guy and kind of a sacred cow, but so is Hunter, so I think Mollie can make this move.

You know LST you talk about fastballs and I agree why would you ever give him a fastball and I'll add to it. Who's bats behind him to protect him? Mauer is obviously not protecting him in the three hole at all. I would argue that if you put dozier third and Mauer second that dozier numbers would go up. With the protection of Sano espically with the tear he's been on he would see more fastballs because pitchers wouldn't want to walk him to get to Sano.

[Jester1534]

I'll add one more right thing, damn I wish Kris Bryant would've fell to us in the draft. I remember having convo with LST but ugh a middle line up of Sano, Bryant and Rosario would've been so sexy lol

[Monster]

What a whacky win today. Cotts seemed to have a good outing. Sano wow