Cam's Off-Season Breakdown

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Assets:

- 2014 Minnesota's First Round Pick (top-13 protected; Phoenix would own 2015 1st)
- 2014 New Orleans' Second Round Pick (Songaila/Daniels trade in 2009)
- 2014 Miami's Second Round Pick (Norris Cole trade in 2011)
- 2014 Golden State's Second Round Pick (Malcolm Lee trade in 2013)

*Minnesota's 2014 Second Round Pick belongs to Milwaukee due to the Ridnour trade in 2013.*

- Free Agent Mid-Level Exception (for non-taxpaying teams, $5M-ish)

Players Without Contracts (2013-14 salary):

- Dante Cunningham ($2.2M)
- A.J. Price ($950K)
- Robbie Hummel ($490K)

Players To Trade; Contracts To Shed:

- J.J. Barea (one-year, $4.5M)
- Luc Mbah a Moute (one-year, $4.4M)
- Alexey Shved (one-year, $3.2M; team option for 2015 for $4M)

*Chase Budinger (two-years, $5M per year). Separating Budinger from the above three due to him recovering from an injury. He was once a productive player; I believe he still can be when completely healthy. An off-season of letting his knees continue to heal plus getting in "basketball shape" would do him well.

Off-Season Trade Ideas:

- Minnesota trades J.J. Barea to Detroit for Jonas Jerebko. Salaries are nearly identical ($4.52M for $4.5M). Bynum is a capable backup PG, but the Pistons may covet Barea's scoring-in-a-pinch ability. For DET, Billups is likely retiring and Stuckey may leave via free agency this off-season. Barea could replace some of that scoring for the Pistons bench. As we've seen the past two years, Barea isn't a good fit for our second unit PG and shipping him out of Minnesota would be a move I'd be in favor of.

Jerebko is an underused (9 MPG this year, MPG have decreased every year in the league) SF/PF tweener. He doesn't seem like he's in Detroit's future outlook, but he could help the Timberwolves bench. Jerebko's an efficient offensive bench player (scorer and rebounder) and his advanced statistics can confirm that. He also passes the eye test for me on offense. Has a pretty good feel for the game and can make winning plays.

Also, when comparing Jerebko to current backup PF Cunningham in per36, Jonas is the more productive player in multiple offensive categories. Jonas can also stretch it out to the three-point line, though it's not a preferred shot, he at least provides that threat whereas Cunningham doesn't.

Defensively, neither JJ and DC are all that great. Both are tweeners, can get outmatched in the post and neither have great athletic tools. DC's the better shotblocker, but JJ uses his 6'10 height and length to bother more shots, in my opinion. Basically, this is an offensive upgrade to the bench, albeit a little one. Sometimes all a team needs are minor upgrades in several rotation spots, though. With this trade, I'd let Cunningham leave in free agency.

- Minnesota trades Luc Mbah a Moute and two 2014 2nd Round picks ('14 GS, '15 MIN) to wing-needy, non-competitive Philadelphia or Orlando. Neither team expects to be competitive next season and both organizations have the cap room to absorb Luc's $4.4M salary without Minnesota taking salary back. Multiple 2nd rounders would be the reason for accepting the salary dump. Both are relatively young teams and Mbah a Moute's professionalism and attitude could be a side benefit as well.

Salary Cap:

- What's on the books for 2014? $66,470,988 in total salary for 12 players. This does not include Hummel, Price and/or Cunningham.

- Barea trade for Jerebko (equal salary), Mbah a Moute trade for cap relief ($4.4M). Would put our 2014 total salary at around $62M. This should allow the Timberwolves to sign their 2014 draft picks and use the full MLE on a free agent while avoiding the luxury tax, if all math is correct.

NBA Draft

- "With the 13th pick in the 2014 NBA draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves select... Nik Stauskas, guard, University of Michigan."

These are the words that I can only wish for on draft day. Stauskas is a complete offensive player in that he can do it all. He'll be an elite shooter at the pro level without question, but I would say that he could one day join the 50/40/90 shooting club.

Stauskas can dribble drive and finish at the rim with either hand. He knows how to get to the free throw line and converts (5.8 FTAs per game this year). He's more than capable of being a facilitator when he's got the ball in his hands and usually makes the correct decision. That's evident by his impressive 3.4 - 1.8 AST/TO ratio. Stauskas is exactly what we need from this draft.

- In the second round, there will be plenty of guards with promise to choose from. Players that I have interest in are: PG Shabazz Napier, PG Scottie Wilbekin, PG Russ Smith, SG Casey Prather and SG C.J. Wilcox. All would be worthy selections, in my opinion.

I don't believe we would need to take a big, but a few that I like are: A.J. Hammons, Patric Young and Mahammadou Jaiteh.

Free Agency:

- The only true necessary signing would be that of a backup point guard to replace J.J. Barea. On my watch would be: Greivis Vasquez, Steve Blake, D.J. Augustin and Shaun Livingston. Of those four, Vasquez and Blake would be tough to pry away from their current teams, but not impossible. Both are worth $4-4.5M annually for their production even as a backup.

Cheaper-but-solid signings would be Augustin or Livingston. Of those two, I prefer Augustin. He's likely the odd man out next season in Chicago if/when Rose returns, much like Nate Robinson was. He's been really good this year setting up teammates and scoring when his number was called. I would love signing one of them for $2-3M per year if Minnesota was unable to sign Vasquez or Blake.

Final Roster:

PG: Rubio, Blake, Shved
SG: Martin, Stauskas (1st Rounder), Prather (2nd Rounder)
SF: Brewer, Budinger, Muhammad
PF: Love, Jerebko, Hummel
C: Pekovic, Turiaf, Dieng

I believe this is a realistic off-season plan that makes the 2014 Timberwolves better than the 2013 Timberwolves in terms of talent and pieces that fit. With the right coach, they could likely make the playoffs, which is the first step for this organization.

Correct my numbers or my salary cap understanding if need be or tell me what you think. Other suggestions are welcome as well.

[60WinTim]

Hmm... You didn't pick a new coach!

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Retreads: Stan Van Gundy, Lionel Hollins.

Fresh faces: Fred Hoiberg, Rex Kalamian.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

I get it now. All you have to do is say "Breakdown" and not only does everyone agree with you, the teams you reference in your post have no choice but to obey.

OK. Here's my "Breakdown".

My "Breakdown" for Detroit is....there is no move to be made there. They are dominant at C, play to a draw at PF and PG, and blow at SG and SF. Their principal SF is Josh Smith, and even if Dumars would admit he screwed the pooch on that, no one is taking him. That leaves SG, where Stucky is a F/A and Billups is a T/O. MIN doesn't have anybody there that excites anyone, and even if they did, DET doesn't have anyone worth being excited over that they would actually part with (my "breakdown" of Jerebko is....really?). And they are $17m under with 12 guys signed before declining Billups, which then jumps to $20m/11 guys, so they can go get their own SG.

My "Breakdown" for the Tragic is....why would a team that has 11 players under contract, $22m in cap room, and two lottery picks, not to mention Agent-Zero-Gas-Left-In-The-Tank finally off the books, be THAT excited about 2nd rounders? If your answer is "Europeans", then my obvious response would be "If there are so many Europeans worth having, why doesn't MIN just draft them?". MIN could have a pretty empty roster in 15 months.

My "Breakdown" for JJ is.....Utah. Now I know they have a ton of cap room (my "breakdown" is...notice a theme?), ten players signed, and three picks in the top 40. But their PG PER ratio is 9.8 versus 17.8 (my "breakdown" is....WOW!), and JJ is a more manageable 12.9/13.9.

I'll give Flip, the rest of the league, and you guys my "breakdown" on LRMaM, Shved, and Budinger in the coming days.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I didn't say anyone had to agree with me, Jason, and when looking at how little comments this thread got, I wouldn't say many were in agreement with me anyways. You can make fun of the title all you'd like, but you're looking too into it. I said "breakdown" because I was separating parts of the off-season in one post. Can you accept that or must you continue looking like an asshole?

One of Detroit's more reliable scorers, Stuckey, is likely leaving this off-season. That production has to be replaced somehow, likely with multiple moves. I don't think it's unrealistic at all that the Pistons would swap Jerebko for Barea. A player they almost never use for a guy that would strengthen their backourt depth and possibly help their second unit offense? Yeah, I'm not seeing why the Pistons wouldn't make that trade. Go ahead and bash Jerebko, but he's more productive per minute than our current backup PF. So yes, really.

Why be excited about 2nd rounders in a deep draft? Look around the league over the last decade or so and you'll see how much of an advantage teams have when they hit on a 2nd rounder. Why wouldn't a rebuilding team want to have as many lottery tickets as they could? ORL could easily absorb Luc's $4.4M for next season and still be fine financially. As for your case of drafting Euros, I would argue that getting rid of Luc's contract would be of more importance for the T-Wolves. Not to mention they'd still have a 2nd rounder to draft a project/Euro even after trading away two 2nd rounders.

To follow the above said, those are just two trade ideas of mine. Not once did I say they were guaranteed to be accepted nor that Flip would even do such things. Perhaps I should have included a trade for Travis Outlaw. I'm sure you would have supported that one.

Barea to Utah could work. I'd be in favor of that idea. Anything realistic to remove him from the Wolves roster is fine by me.

I'm sure we're all dying to read your post, Jason. I'd like to know your feelings towards Arron Afflalo after this season as well. Maybe you could break that down too.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Cam, Good stuff. I'm not really in the "offseason moves" mindset yet, even though we're out of the playoffs. This is a fun time to watch guys like Dieng (and hopefully Shabazz) get good minutes.

I'm generally in agreement with keeping the core in tact. Pek for a very good 2-way wing is tempting, but I'm not sure there is a deal out there to be had that doesn't force us to give up more than we can get.

As I mentioned in a prior thread, I think the #1 thing we could do to upgrade the team is to get a defensive-minded coach. We have some very willing and able defenders on this team. We can get better in this area without a ton of roster turnover. That being said, I agree that backup PG, backup SG, and backup PF are the three spots to upgrade.

[Lipoli390]

Cam --

I like your beakdown. It's a truly realistic look at where we're at and what we can probably do in the off-season. However, I don't think the offseason moves you suggest will move the needle enough to ensure a playoff spot next season and we would still be left far short of a team that looks like it can become a contender. Effectively replacing Barea, Dante and Luc with Steve Blake, Jerebko and Stauskas would be a slight net improvement, but not enough. Like Q, I think your ideas for a coaching change would probably have a bigger positive impact than the roster changes you've identified. On the other hand, being realistic, I'm not sure we can do better than what you suggested without moving Pekovic.

So now to my bottom line. In addition to the types of moves you suggest, I think we need to move Pekovic over the summer for the best 2-way wing we can get. Not sure if we can get the caliber wing we need in exchange for Pek, but Flip neds to try. I would also like to see if we can swap Barea in some package for Mayo. I'll have to give this more thought and post some additional ideas later.

Thanks for launching this thread and for putting some thought-provoking ideas out there.

[thedoper]

So basically you want us to fight for the 7 and 8 seed and watch Love leave? I think you are improving this team with your moves, but I am with Lip on this one. We need a more wholesale roster change to right this ship.

[worldK]

Im starting to accept that we may have to trade pek to really improve the team. I wanted us to build around love-rubio-pek but the reality is we dont have other or enough positive assets sz?o do so. As others have mentioned, trading pek for a capable two way wing should be a priority.

My wish list would be batum. You can start shabazz with him as batum can defend both sf and sg and can handle the ball. Dont see portland tradinhg him for pek but if we can get a third team involved then it increases the chance. This is where flip needs to get creative..

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm generally late to the party when it comes to accepting the departure of players I like. I like Pek and see him as an effective offensive center, but I have been swayed by discussion on this board that Pek is the most valuable trade chip that we can afford to give up. I agree with Lip's assessment that it would be prudent to explore deals that could bring a very good 2-way wing in return.

I admit that there is some degree of "knee jerking" in my opinion, having watched Dieng's excellent game in his starting debut last night. But he has showed me a lot in his limited minutes this year. Is he raw? Of course. But let's not forget that Pek was also quite raw when he came over from Europe a few years ago. At first, I saw Pek only as a physical specimen who might earn some minutes off the bench as a banger. But he developed into a reliable scorer, and Rubio had a lot to do with that. Rubio is a classic point guard when it comes to providing easy baskets for his big men, and Dieng will profit from that over time also.

Pek is a reliable 18 and 10...when he is healthy. But that is becoming a big disclaimer. Pek works hard on the court, but he misses a lot of games with injuries not quite at the level that has benched other Wolves players. While Love, Rubio, Martin, Bud, Turiaf et al have missed time with broken bones and serious knee issues, Pek's injuries are different...calf injuries, ankle bursitis, etc. I am not questioning Pek's toughness...I believe him when he says he tries to play through the pain bur just can't. But he played only 62 games last year, and may only play 51 this year...and we are paying him $12 million a year. Maybe his joints are just not strong enough to support 290 pounds, and if so, we can expect these nuisance injuries to continue and maybe even get worse as he moves into his 30s. If so, I think we can use that $12 million more effectively the next four years. I would argue that a very good 2-way SG combined with Dieng/Turiaf in the pivot, helps us more than Pek does in his 50-60 games per year.