Our rotation depth
Somebody pointed out on the OKC thread that they were surprised Finch went with just a 7-player rotation, and outside of those couple of JMAC minutes before garbage time, it's true, although that would be tougher in close games where you can't empty the bench down the stretch. With Naz and Jaden out, it's tough to find an 8th guy to rely on in this lineup. I think we can expect those 7 from the OKC game to be the rotation, plus JMAC and/or Nowell depending on what we need.
In terms of a possible 8th or 9th man, Reggie Jackson is their backup, and he's not super big, so I do think JMAC might not be quite so disadvantaged against him. Though Nowell's offense tends to be self-created and can ironically limit our overall offense by limiting ball movement, he's probably going to get playing time when we're behind and need some scoring, especially if JMAC is overpowered. I honestly could also potentially see Austin Rivers getting some PT, though he's been on the bench for so long. If KAT's in foul trouble and JMAC and Nowell aren't the answer (and for various reasons, they may not be), Rivers is a guy who can defend and at least handle the ball well enough with a guy like Prince and SloMo out there that I wouldn't expect the offense to grind to a halt without JMAC or Conley out there.
Starters and Matchups
They'll roll with Murray, KCP, MPJ, Gordon, and Jokic to start.
The big challenge will be guarding Jokic, obviously. On one hand, it makes sense to put Rudy on him because Rudy can defend away from the basket surprisingly well and it would keep KAT less likely to get into foul trouble. Rudy has a pretty decent history of defending Jokic, and he guarded him this year when he was healthy. I could see potentially trying SloMo on Jokic too, so Rudy can guard Gordon who tends to float in the dunker's spot, and that way he can be there for help defense and rebounding. When we first played them this year, Gordon had 16 rebounds in a game when KAT was out. SloMo might get bulldozed, so we should be ready to stop that experiment as needed, but he's a pretty big dude, and he's got great defensive hands, so putting SloMo on their point-center might be a good idea.
The other shot creator is Murray. Obviously we don't have Jaden to guard him. Conley's a good defender, but I wonder whether it might make more sense to put Conley on KCP and put Ant on Murray. The other option would be NAW or Prince, and NAW seems quicker defensively. But that would mean starting NAW and not SloMo (or Prince).
So the real question is: are we more afraid of their bigs or Murray? I think for now I'm more afraid of their bigs, so I think we should consider going jumbo and starting SloMo. Then we could put Rudy or SloMo on Jokic and the other on Gordon, put Towns on MPJ (which seems a logical fit). We could also put SloMo on MPJ if he gets hot (didn't he drop like, 42 on us earlier this year?), and he has the length to disrupt his shots in a way a guy like Prince just can't. Then with those 3 taking their bigs, we let Conley and Ant take Murray and KCP, potentially switching if we need Ant to shut Murray down quickly. If it's Murray we most need to neutralize (and it could be if he gets really hot), then I could see starting NAW, putting him on Murray, Conley on KCP, and Ant on Gordon, who I think he has the strength to handle.
The safe route to split the difference might be to start Prince and put him on Gordon (I worry he doesn't have the length to handle MPJ, but I could be wrong). That way we would still have SloMo to come off the bench and run the point when Conley's on the bench, which is a balance we need to keep in mind, especially if JMAC is unplayable. Making sure their either Conley or SloMo are on the court at all times is a must.
Zone D
It looked really good last night against the Thunder. It's dangerous against a team like Denver though, which can shoot really well from range, and has an energizer bunny rebounder like Gordon who could pick up offensive boards against a zone D if we're not careful. Also, I bet Jokic could really pick a zone apart. I'm too lazy, and don't know the website that would have stats on that, but I'd be curious to see how he does against zone defenses compared to other players and compared to himself playing against man defenses. All in all, I would NOT plan to use a lot of zone against them, but I'm open to being convinced otherwise.
Their Bench
They'll probably play Bruce Brown, Reggie Jackson, and Jeff Green off the bench. I could also see them putting Nnaji or even maybe Thomas Bryant out there to counter our size. I don't think they've really played Bruce Brown as a center like he played in Brooklyn, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see them try to put Brown on Rudy. That could get cringe-y and we should have a plan to best take advantage of that. I'm not really that worried about any of those bench guys. I feel like we've got defenders to put on Reggie if he gets hot, which I doubt anyway. The more I look at Denver, the more it really seems like a relatively thin squad with great starters and a relatively weak bench. Their bench is also relatively small, so I feel a little better about not having another big to bring off the bench (though that also makes the loss of Naz harder to take, because I think he could have played a nice role for us against them).
All in All
Their offense has been superb this year, and it's really mostly Jokic. Making life difficult for Jokic has to be the number 1 priority for us defensively. He's so good passing out of double teams that it's risky to try that. Even if he scores some buckets, I'd probably rather stick with single coverage and just make sure the rest of the defense is limiting his passing lanes as much as possible (*sigh* Jaden would have been awesome for that).
We should stay aggressive looking for those turnovers (the officials have so far been letting teams play much more this past week and it's been awesome). But KAT in particular needs to be careful about fouls. If NAW, Prince, or even SloMo pick up fouls, we can live with that with Rivers on the bench. If KAT gets into foul trouble, we're in trouble.
Defensively, they're not that great actually. So if we can't score enough, it'll probably be mostly self-inflicted damage, which has unfortunately been the most common kind of damage we've done this year! I think if we just do what we need to do we'll be ok on the offensive end.
- We absolutely need to take care of the ball and limit turnovers. No more risky/flashy passes (KAT, I'm looking at you!). No more semi-conscious soft passes (Ant, I'm looking your way!).
- We should keep the ball moving and not resort to hero-ball (Ant, I love the ball movement in that last game!). But ball movement isn't just about driving and kicking, it's also about creating passing lanes through player movement, so we really need to be setting a lot more (careful) picks to spring guys cutting to the basket, especially when SloMo has the ball, because he's good at finding cutters. I think I saw somebody say they'd give away (what was it, a house, a testicle?) to see a good backdoor cut during the Laker game. Ant and Prince should both be pretty good at that, and Nowell, and I could see a screen from Rudy helping make those cuts possible.
- Relatedly, we should try to get guys cutting to the basket when Jokic is down low. That sounds a bit crazy because he is big and can block shots, but if we can draw fouls on him it'll be huge. One of our best defenses might be to get Jokic in foul trouble on the other end if we can (though we should be careful not to go too far there since officials haven't been calling too many fouls so far this offseason).
- We should really try to get Ant going on the break because he's so effective in the open floor, so we should look for him off turnovers and rebounds (with SAFE passes guys!).
- As great as Ant can be, KAT is still probably our best and most efficient offensive option in the half court. Getting him open shots has to be the #1 offensive priority. If he can drive, that's fine. MPJ is not a great defender (they'll probably put Gordon on him though). But with Gordon on him, he'll have a better chance of open looks for jumpshots, so he shouldn't try to force it and potentially pick up charges. Then again, Denver doesn't draw a lot of charges, so KAT shouldn't just settle either.
- Any time Ant and Edwards are on the bench, Conley and Gobert should be out there with the PNR as an option.
- Stay poised, stay engaged. I hope we go back and watch tape of ourselves collapsing against Memphis last year, giving up those three 4th quarter double-digit leads, and giving up the series lead itself. The lesson shouldn't be to point fingers, but to remember the importance of poise, staying steady, and never letting up when you have the lead.
