Next Years Bigs

[FNG]

Yeah, I have to side with Kekgeek here. Rudy's impact on defense is clear to the eye...so many times we saw an opponent decline taking a high-percentage shot in the paint or at the rim simply because Rudy was there. But the numbers support his defensive dominance too. Our defense totally changes every time Rudy sits, as kek pointed out countless times in the GDTs (a key reason we have to be very careful not overpaying for Naz).

I also agree that the offensive numbers were not impressive with Rudy on the court. But I'm confident this will improve with familiarity, and that the 6-3 record we put up in the final 9 games of the season against very good competition when we finally had everyone available (plus Conley) will continue or even be improved upon. And by the way, a 6-3 record amounts to a 54 or 55 win season.

I'm not buying into the narrative here that the Twin Towers approach is not helpful to Ant...I think we saw how he blossomed in the playoffs playing next to these guys. Ant is best when he gets downhill, and Rudy's elite screening at the top of the key gives him a good chance to get downhill. Spacing is not an issue, because Rudy is not clogging the lane after setting a high pick, and our two forwards are likely to be in the corners ready for a pass from Ant if one of their defenders sags on him (and likely to hit the corner three). The combination of an elite screener plus some knockdown 3 point shooters (KAT, Conley and Jaden) is an ideal setup for Ant to flourish. He's only 21, but I think he will get much better at making the right read after Rudy screens for him: drive to the basket for a left-handed layup, get the ball to an open 3-point shooter, or hit a rolling Rudy for a dunk. This can be a powerful offense, to go along with the stifling defense these guys bring.

I understand that KAT is not the best option defending a mobile 3-point shooting PF, but he's not a complete disaster. His length can be distracting when he jumps out to defend the perimeter, and he and Rudy provide great interior defense against a team trying to score in the paint (look at the poor shooting percentage for Jokic and Gordon during the playoffs).

All this is the reason I'm hoping we start next season with the some starting five we ended the regular season with...no trades, and everyone healthy. If those 5 can avoid missing a significant amount of time, we will see the 53-55 wins many of us predicted before the KAT injury.

[Q-is-here]

Yeah, I have to side with Kekgeek here. Rudy's impact on defense is clear to the eye...so many times we saw an opponent decline taking a high-percentage shot in the paint or at the rim simply because Rudy was there. But the numbers support his defensive dominance too. Our defense totally changes every time Rudy sits, as kek pointed out countless times in the GDTs (a key reason we have to be very careful not overpaying for Naz).

I also agree that the offensive numbers were not impressive with Rudy on the court. But I'm confident this will improve with familiarity, and that the 6-3 record we put up in the final 9 games of the season against very good competition when we finally had everyone available (plus Conley) will continue or even be improved upon. And by the way, a 6-3 record amounts to a 54 or 55 win season.

I'm not buying into the narrative here that the Twin Towers approach is not helpful to Ant...I think we saw how he blossomed in the playoffs playing next to these guys. Ant is best when he gets downhill, and Rudy's elite screening at the top of the key gives him a good chance to get downhill. Spacing is not an issue, because Rudy is not clogging the lane after setting a high pick, and our two forwards are likely to be in the corners ready for a pass from Ant if one of their defenders sags on him (and likely to hit the corner three). The combination of an elite screener plus some knockdown 3 point shooters (KAT, Conley and Jaden) is an ideal setup for Ant to flourish. He's only 21, but I think he will get much better at making the right read after Rudy screens for him: drive to the basket for a left-handed layup, get the ball to an open 3-point shooter, or hit a rolling Rudy for a dunk. This can be a powerful offense, to go along with the stifling defense these guys bring.

I understand that KAT is not the best option defending a mobile 3-point shooting PF, but he's not a complete disaster. His length can be distracting when he jumps out to defend the perimeter, and he and Rudy provide great interior defense against a team trying to score in the paint (look at the poor shooting percentage for Jokic and Gordon during the playoffs).

All this is the reason I'm hoping we start next season with the some starting five we ended the regular season with...no trades, and everyone healthy. If those 5 can avoid missing a significant amount of time, we will see the 53-55 wins many of us predicted before the KAT injury.

There is a case to be made for running it back. It's just so frustrating because we completely fall apart defensively without Rudy, yet on offense, despite Ant's improvement, as a team we legit struggled to score with Rudy.

It's mind-boggling to me that a Utah team that started Mike Conley, Rudy Gobert, Royce O'Neal, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Donovan Mitchell was literally the #1 offense in the NBA and #9 defensively. Yet the Wolves can't even get out of the bottom 10 offense with some of the exact same players and Ant is a pretty close facsimile to Mitchell. I mean, like seriously, WTF!?!

But here's the problem. Rudy in the playoffs is a problem on offense and potentially a problem on defense. I now buy into the national narrative having watched him for an entire season. Denver didn't expose him a ton on defense because they have Jokic and Gordon. But watching the likes of Sacramento, they can go to a legit 5-out lineup and be super dangerous with Sabonis sitting on the bench. In a 7-game series they could literally play Gobert off the floor.

And on offense he just can't be trusted in crunch time, making his rim rolls and duck-ins into the lane problematic because our most important player simply will not pass it to him. So all he's doing is taking up space and I think that hurts more than whatever help he gives by providing good screens.

We need to move on and part of the solution are trades that bring back 3 & D types. You can't have enough of them, especially with Ant as your focal point.

[Lipoli390]

I voted to keep KAT and Naz, but trade Rudy. My close second choice would be keeping all three. Here are my view on all three bigs:

NAZ REID

TC has already made it clear he wants to keep Naz and I think that’s the right thing to do. As Cool has pointed out, Naz is a gifted offensive player whose offensive skills are probably undervalued by some. Give his age, improvement arc to date and work ethic, he’s likely to continue improving over the next several years. While he’s not a good defender, I thought he looked better defensively down the stretch. Interestedly, I thought he looked better defensively playing alongside either Rudy or KAT, which suggests his natural position defensively might be PF, not C. He’s certainly more of a PF offensively. As you’ll see below, I don’t think the Wolves should trade KAT this summer. However, I could see trading KAT next summer or the summer after while he’s still in his prime and would bring back a good return. I’d feel better about trading KAT next year or thereafter if we have Naz locked in as his successor.

KAT

I would definitely keep KAT for now. We can go back and forth on KAT’s strengths and weaknesses, but I’ll boil it down to the following. Last season, the Wolves finished 10 games over .500 and took the team with the best record in the West to 6 games in spite of DLO’s horrific play in the series — and all of that happened with KAT as the team’s best player in both the regular season and playoffs. Keep in mind that Ant and Jaden were not nearly as good last season as they were this season and the Wolves didn’t have Slo Mo. So that’s the last picture we have of KAT being relatively healthy and playing a full season. If the team can accomplish all that with KAT as its best player without Slo Mo or any other all-stars on the team, imagine what this team can accomplish with KAT as its second-best player with Ant as the team’s superstar and an up-and-coming all-defensive potential all-star in Jaden. I think it would be a terrible mistake to trade KAT before we get to how the team performs with Ant, KAT, Jaden and Slo Mo. I agree with those who have noted that KAT’s trade value is at a low ebb coming off an injury-plagued season. He’s still in his prime and I would expect his trade value to go up if he stays healthy. I can’t say the same for the 31 year old Gobert. There might be a time to trade KAT, but his summer isn’t that time. That’s the sort of defeatist folly that we’ve seen all too often from this franchise.

RUDY GOBERT

It’s a close call for me, but I think the Wolves should move on from Rudy this summer even though the Wolves will have to settle for pennies on the dollar in return. For those who thought DLO wasn’t worth $30 million per year, how do you feel about Rudy at $40+ million per year for three more years starting at age 31? I laid out the case for trading Rudy in the Ant “likes” threat so I won’t repeat myself here. As I pointed out in that threat, I’d be OK keeping Rudy. While I hated the trade that bought him here, I don’t hate Rudy. I like him and I see the value he brings. I just don’t think his net value is worth his contract. Moreover, I think his presence isn’t in long-term best interest of this team’s development into a championship contender built around Ant and Jaden. The fact that Ant seems obviously frustrated by Rudy (as was DLO, Slo Mo and likely others) further supports moving on from Rudy sooner rather than later. At age 31, his trade value will only go down over time as will his value to the Wolves on the court.

[Coolbreeze44]

Over the last couple days I've come to realize that KAT is pretty close to untradeable. His super max extension doesn't kick in until next season, and he now has a troubling history of missing a lot of games over the last 4 years. I can't see anyone clearing the space necessary to bring on a risk like KAT. He won't become tradeable until he puts together a monster season, and if he does that, there would be no reason to trade him. He's staying put.

The next thing to worry about is the amount of money we are going to be paying to KAT, Rudy, Ant, and Jaden. Ant and Jaden will be looking for extensions this offseason and I wouldn't expect them to be cheap. Ant will get the max and McDaniels can command a huge price as well. I can only hope we don't 'Chauncey Billups" NAZ this offseason and let him go due to cost. He's going to continue to improve and increase his value. I don't think TC will entertain it, but he may have to try to move Rudy this summer. As embarrassing as the return would be, does he have a choice?

[Phenom]

Jaden and Ant will still be paid rookie scale salaries next season and TP can always be let go to reduce payroll to help with Naz and NAW salaries. Next season should be doable. Dane Moore has talked about it a few times on his pod laying out the numbers.

As for KAT I feel like the Atlantic division teams would have interest except for Philly. Not sure if the assets are going to be great though.

[Sundog]

I voted keep them all, both because I think that’s the most likely outcome and one that I support, given how soft I’d expect the trade market to be for Rudy and KAT. I also like kek’s and FNG’s analysis… I worry it’s a little rose-colored but that’s closer to my way of thinking. Max Ant, near max Jaden, resign Naz, extend NAW. Spend all of Lore’s/A-Rod’s money. Let Prince and Nowell walk. Replace JMac.

Has anyone started a Moore=Culver 2.0 thread yet?

[AbeVigodaLive]

Not really thrilled with any of the options...

... but I don't see a ton of value in having both Reid and Towns on the team. I think there's too much redundancy in their games.

And considering Towns probably has more trade value than Gobert... and Reid can replace some of what Towns does... and it's been 8 years with Towns already... and his new contract is HUGE...

[Coolbreeze44]

Not really thrilled with any of the options...

... but I don't see a ton of value in having both Reid and Towns on the team. I think there's too much redundancy in their games.

And considering Towns probably has more trade value than Gobert... and Reid can replace some of what Towns does... and it's been 8 years with Towns already... and his new contract is HUGE...

Given what you said and what we know, how are you going to move that big contract?

[Wolvesfan21]

Over the last couple days I've come to realize that KAT is pretty close to untradeable. His super max extension doesn't kick in until next season, and he now has a troubling history of missing a lot of games over the last 4 years. I can't see anyone clearing the space necessary to bring on a risk like KAT. He won't become tradeable until he puts together a monster season, and if he does that, there would be no reason to trade him. He's staying put.

The next thing to worry about is the amount of money we are going to be paying to KAT, Rudy, Ant, and Jaden. Ant and Jaden will be looking for extensions this offseason and I wouldn't expect them to be cheap. Ant will get the max and McDaniels can command a huge price as well. I can only hope we don't 'Chauncey Billups" NAZ this offseason and let him go due to cost. He's going to continue to improve and increase his value. I don't think TC will entertain it, but he may have to try to move Rudy this summer. As embarrassing as the return would be, does he have a choice?

I think teams will think that a fresh start can be great for KAT and they can get the most out of him. He hasn't made the improvements here but a trade could help him improve. He might take a look at his own problems versus blaming officials all the time for instance. I am sick and tired of watching KAT play basketball, but I could see another team and fanbase getting excited to get the best out of him.

I actually think KAT has decent value while Rudy has none to negative after his off year. He had the problem with DLO, "punched" Slo-mo on the sidelines, reportedly Ant may not like him (same with DLO and Mitchell), he got a year older, missed a bunch of games with back issues too and his play dropped off. Could it have gone much worse?

We didn't get the DPOY Rudy we were hoping to get.

Do you trade Rudy if you need to throw in McDaniels too? Maybe nobody will take Rudy based on his contract and having to match salary. You put McDaniels in and sign NAW instead. Certainly defensively you will be horrible and probably win 25 games depending on who you bring back though.

[Lipoli390]

While I’ve been critical of Rudy, he’s not a negative trade asset. Of course we won’t get anything close to what we gave up for him but that was true the day we traded for him. I’ll concede that his value has fallen a bit since then with his weaknesses more exposed and the significant decline in his blocked shots. But he was still an elite rebounder and a very good defender this season. Other front office execs understand that Rudy wasn’t a good fit for the Wolves personnel or playing style and they also understand that KAT was missing most of the season. There are teams out there that will give positive value in return for Rudy.

Importantly, we don’t need to get what we gave up for Rudy. Look at it this way. The Wolves should be able to get the equivalent of Vando, Beverley and Beasley in return for Rudy. We just wouldn’t be able to get four future unprotected 1st-round picks and a current year first rounder. In other words, we should be able to get the equivalent of the team that won 47 games with a healthy Town - but this time we’d have Slo Mo along with substantially better, more mature versions of Ant and Jaden. We should also end up with more financial flexibility a Rudy deal. And maybe we could also get a future top-ten protected 1st round picks and a future 2nd.