Next Years Bigs

[Lipoli390]

We’ve had a great discussion in this thread about the future of our bigs. Most of us have talked about what we’d like to see. Most of us want to re-sign Naz. Some want to trade Rudy and others want the Wolves to trade KAT. You all know where I stand in that debate.

But now I’ll offer my prediction, independent of what I want the Wolves to do. I’m convinced the Wolves will keep both Rudy and KAT while also re-signing Naz. The Wolves can probably do that and still barely stay under the luxury tax threshold next season. When the luxury tax shxx hits the fan next summer, the Wolves front office will deal with it by trading one of the the three bigs - probably KAT or Rudy. I think TC wants to take one more shot at his twin-towers experiment, but he values Naz and sees him as an insurance policy for potential failure of the experiment. I suspect TC is banking on KAT and Rudy having at least as much trade value next summer as they do this summer. Rudy’s value should stay the same unless he gets hurt or is truly in decline as some of his numbers last season suggest. KAT’s salary will jump next summer, but if he stays healthy his market value will likely increase from where it is now after an injury-plagued season.

[Monster]

We’ve had a great discussion in this thread about the future of our bigs. Most of us have talked about what we’d like to see. Most of us want to re-sign Naz. Some want to trade Rudy and others want the Wolves to trade KAT. You all know where I stand in that debate.

But now I’ll offer my prediction, independent of what I want the Wolves to do. I’m convinced the Wolves will keep both Rudy and KAT while also re-signing Naz. The Wolves can probably do that and still barely stay under the luxury tax threshold next season. When the luxury tax shxx hits the fan next summer, the Wolves front office will deal with it by trading one of the the three bigs - probably KAT or Rudy. I think TC wants to take one more shot at his twin-towers experiment, but he values Naz and sees him as an insurance policy for potential failure of the experiment. I suspect TC is banking on KAT and Rudy having at least as much trade value next summer as they do this summer. Rudy’s value should stay the same unless he gets hurt or is truly in decline as some of his numbers last season suggest. KAT’s salary will jump next summer, but if he stays healthy his market value will likely increase from where it is now after an injury-plagued season.

Another reason to sign Naz apart from his value on the floor and as a possible trade asset is that sometimes you need salary to match on future deals. Just having basically max guys and players making the minimum can actually hamstrings you much like the CBA stuff that is coming.

I’ll add that all the reporting so far has been that Naz actually wants to come back. That could always change. I don’t know why he would want to stay because I could see him easily chasing other opportunities but if that’s the case that he wants to stay great. I still think Naz isn’t going to be viewed as a starter so the money and much bigger opportunities aren’t going to be THAT different than staying here. Only time will tell. I hope he is back but if he is gone it’s likely because he got paid and I’ll be happy for the guy. He has put in the work and produced. Even if he never become a starting level player or even more than that I feel like he is a guy that so far has done everything to get the most out of everything. It’s easy to cheer for a guy like that.

[kekgeek]

I don’t think Naz is that valued around the league. His lack of success as a PF really kills his value. His poor rebounding and rim protection also kills his value. I view Naz as a 6th man scorer but how many centers are 6th mens. Bobby Portis sort of but he has success at PF also unlike Naz. I’m predicting we are going you be stunned how cheap resigns for.

[worldK]

After going back and forth about Naz. I am now leaning towards not giving him anything more than 7-8m/yr or letting him walk if he wants more.

I love his energy and his offense is really fun with his ability to play fast and his dribble drive game and finishing is really nice. But he gets dominated and targeted on defense by talented bigs whether 4’s or 5’s. He is a poor rebounder and while he is surprisingly a decent shot blocker, the rest of his defense is just bad. He also gets knocked on his ass too much during games and he wasn’t flopping or taking charges during those plays. Keek loves to point out on game threads how we dont get stops when he is in the game as the main big and that is true. He does not address our main weakness( rebounding and defense).

We need a more physical and imposing player as our bench big. If naz signs for 7-8m. Then I will be looking at him as a trade chip and situational player rather than a important regular rotation guy. If he demands more than that, just let him walk.

[KG4Ever]

Anyone interested in Paul Reed? He has great rebounding, steals and blocks measured on a 36 minute basis. High energy guy and he has a very positive net rating. Hasn't done much three point shooting in the NBA, but in college, he took 1.1 three point shots a game, making 33%. Might make sense if we don't resign Naz.

[Q-is-here]

Anyone interested in Paul Reed? He has great rebounding, steals and blocks measured on a 36 minute basis. High energy guy and he has a very positive net rating. Hasn't done much three point shooting in the NBA, but in college, he took 1.1 three point shots a game, making 33%. Might make sense if we don't resign Naz.

I liked Paul Reed coming out of college and I remember him absolutely man-handling the Wolves summer league team a few years ago (which I believe included Naz Reid, unsurprisingly).

But he's a perfect example of how you can get a competent big fairly inexpensively. And he's got 26 games of playoff experience already!

I actually think we could potentially build a juggernaut of a defensive team this offseason if Nowell and Naz are replaced in the rotation by good defensive subs.

Now our offense may struggle again, but it feels like we could become elite defensively with just a couple of smaller moves given the personnel we already have.

[Wolvesfan21]

Naz is far too weak defensively to play the 5. I don't think he will ever be good enough either, because he has shown mostly offensive improvement but practically nothing defensively. I think the defense as a whole can be fine with Naz with a good defender behind him. He's also not really that big either. He plays more like a wing in a PF body.

I also heard on a podcast that Naz turned down 10 million per for 4 years. Not sure if that report is true or not though. If we trade KAT then I think resigning Naz makes sense. He's a subpar version of KAT. But he's younger and has greater upside and will be a ton cheaper. So I am on board with this scenario.

[Monster]

I don’t think Naz is that valued around the league. His lack of success as a PF really kills his value. His poor rebounding and rim protection also kills his value. I view Naz as a 6th man scorer but how many centers are 6th mens. Bobby Portis sort of but he has success at PF also unlike Naz. I’m predicting we are going you be stunned how cheap resigns for.

Portis and Naz are different type of players but if you want to look at a young talented guy that ended up sorta making it and figuring it out Portis is an example of that. For much of his first years of his career he was considered a bad defender didn’t block shots or protect the rim. His offense fans of teams he was on would get frustrated with him taking a bunch of ill advised post ups. Portis is much stronger than Naz in the lower body. On the other hand Naz does have shot blocking skills and moves well which I think both guys do for their relative size. Portis I think prioritized winning otherwise he probably could have gotten more money but to be honest I think Portis after playing with the Bucks proved to be more valuable than Naz has so far. I think you could be right some folks will be surprised at how much Naz does or more accurately doesn’t get.

Edit: who are the young bigs that have gotten paid much more than 10 million lately? Wendell Carter Jr is on a nice contract now but is making a little over 10 million a year. All Mo Bamba got last offseason was a 2 year 20 million deal with only the first season guaranteed.

[Lipoli390]

Naz is far too weak defensively to play the 5. I don't think he will ever be good enough either, because he has shown mostly offensive improvement but practically nothing defensively. I think the defense as a whole can be fine with Naz with a good defender behind him. He's also not really that big either. He plays more like a wing in a PF body.

I also heard on a podcast that Naz turned down 10 million per for 4 years. Not sure if that report is true or not though. If we trade KAT then I think resigning Naz makes sense. He's a subpar version of KAT. But he's younger and has greater upside and will be a ton cheaper. So I am on board with this scenario.

Re-signing Naz will probably coast $12-15 million next season on a 3-4 year deal. I would absolutely sign him in that price range. Naz is too talented to let him walk. Yes, he’s been the League 4 years, but he hasn’t had a lot of minutes or consistent minutes. And he’s a late bloomer. I think he has lots of remaining upside. He started to hit his stride late last season and I think the rest of the League saw that and sees him as Cool and I see him - a 20 point per game big. He’s never looked good defensively at the 5, but late last season he actually looked decent defensively at the 4 playing alongside Rudy or KAT. He can guard in space, but can be overpowered guarding bigs with size in the paint. He’s a PF, not a center.

I agree that we should keep Naz if we trade KAT this summer. But I also think we should keep him even if we don’t trade KAT this summer - at least as insurance in the event we trade KAT next summer. If things go well with KAT and Rudy next season and we don’t get a lot out of Naz, it will be easy to trade him for value. Players who can score and hit threes, especially bigs, have a lot of value in the League. They have far more value than the bigs who just rebound and block shots in the paint. The Wolves front office has depleted the organization’s draft assets and we’re over the cap closing in on the luxury tax threshold. This team can’t afford to let talented young players leave for nothing.

[Coolbreeze44]

Naz is far too weak defensively to play the 5. I don't think he will ever be good enough either, because he has shown mostly offensive improvement but practically nothing defensively. I think the defense as a whole can be fine with Naz with a good defender behind him. He's also not really that big either. He plays more like a wing in a PF body.

I also heard on a podcast that Naz turned down 10 million per for 4 years. Not sure if that report is true or not though. If we trade KAT then I think resigning Naz makes sense. He's a subpar version of KAT. But he's younger and has greater upside and will be a ton cheaper. So I am on board with this scenario.

Re-signing Naz will probably coast $12-15 million next season on a 3-4 year deal. I would absolutely sign him in that price range. Naz is too talented to let him walk. Yes, he’s been the League 4 years, but he hasn’t had a lot of minutes or consistent minutes. And he’s a late bloomer. I think he has lots of remaining upside. He started to hit his stride late last season and I think the rest of the League saw that and sees him as Cool and I see him - a 20 point per game big. He’s never looked good defensively at the 5, but late last season he actually looked decent defensively at the 4 playing alongside Rudy or KAT. He can guard in space, but can be overpowered guarding bigs with size in the paint. He’s a PF, not a center.

I agree that we should keep Naz if we trade KAT this summer. But I also think we should keep him even if we don’t trade KAT this summer - at least as insurance in the event we trade KAT next summer. If things go well with KAT and Rudy next season and we don’t get a lot out of Naz, it will be easy to trade him for value. Players who can score and hit threes, especially bigs, have a lot of value in the League. They have far more value than the bigs who just rebound and block shots in the paint. The Wolves front office has depleted the organization’s draft assets and we’re over the cap closing in on the luxury tax threshold. This team can’t afford to let talented young players leave for nothing.

Yep, give him minutes and he will drop 20 per night. There are a lot teams where he wouldn't get enough court time, but in the right situation he would score at a high level.