Running It Back

[60WinTim]

We have all sorts of threads on who to trade, etc., but not one devoted to running it back next season. Here are a few factors leading into how this thing gets run back:

• The starting line up is set: Conley, ANT, McDaniels, KAT and Rudy.
• The reserves with guaranteed money are Moore, Minot and SloMo, with SloMo the only lock for the rotation.
• The Wolves have about 18 mil under the luxury tax threshold.
• The MLE at 12.22 mil and BAE at 4.45, totaling 16.67 mil, can be spent on FAs, which is below the 18 mil number.
• A vet minimum contract (with 2+ years of experience) is only a 1.77 hit on the cap.
• Up to 11.88 mil of additional space can be made by waiving JMac (2.32 mil), Nate (2 mil) and/or Prince (7.46 mil).

Thoughts on NAW: as a restricted FA, NAW is a lock to be re-signed and part of the rotation. But whatever money he signs for will reduce how much of the MLE and/or BAE can be used for other FAs. Unless of course, Prince is waived...

Thoughts on Prince: Prince is a lock to be in the rotation. But his presence kind of stifles Minott's opportunity, although it is unlikely Minott is ready to contribute next season. Freeing up Prince's money would make room for re-signing NAW and using the full MLE and BAE to sign FAs (or re-sign Naz?). From a pure numbers standpoint, Matt Ryan produces similar numbers as Prince, and he won't cost 7.46 mil. Just sayin'...

Thoughts on backup PG: I don't see how the Wolves can go into the season with JMac or Moore penciled in as the backup PG. And while NAW can fill in for a spell, he didn't scream "reliable backup PG" in his opportunities this season. It is clearly an area of need. Is it worthy of the MLE? Or just the BAE? I suspect the MLE will be spent on a PG who could potentially be the heir apparent to Conley. As for the 3rd PG - Moore is under contract, JMac can be waived. What was your favorite JMac moment?

Thoughts on Naz: TC says he wants Naz back. It sounds like that will take MLE-like money. Is it worth spending that much money on a guy that will play behind KAT, Rudy and SloMo? I suspect we will see a cheaper FA to take Naz's place.

[WildWolf2813]

Running it back, if they feel that's the way to go, is an option, but if it fails, everything afterwards will fall apart to where it because difficult to see how a good team can be formed around Edwards.


Connelly may or may not have this idea that KAT will always have value if it doesn't work. He may not have much value and now the CBA undercuts the idea of spending lavishly. Even if it works, let's say they win 52 games and make it to the semis, it's still a team you have to break up and shift around, and that's even if you keep Rudy and KAT. There aren't any long term pieces in place at the moment ready to supplant anyone.

In a year, the reality is that outside of Ant, McDaniels and one of KAT and Gobert, I can't guarantee anyone else is on the team whether they lose 50 games or reach the conference finals. The risk is really high and the payoff doesn't appear to justify the risk.

[KG4Ever]

I like the Wolves starting lineup of Ant, Kat, Gobert, Jaden and Conley, plus SloMo. Those are the six pieces we have to have return. The rest of the guys, I have varying degrees of interest in keeping depending on how much money they tie up and to what extent that money prevents us from getting free agents that will improve the roster. So ideally, we bring back NAW, Reid and Prince too but I'd also like to add someone like Shake Milton or Jevon Carter. I'd also like to retain Garza, Minott and probably Moore. I wouldn't mind bringing back JMAC as depth on a minimal deal to provide depth but I'd rather have a Milton or Carter be the primary backup guard. I'm on the fence with Reid in the sense that I like his offensive game but admit that he has consistently been one of our worst plus/minus guys every year so I wouldn't want to overpay him and I'd consider a sign and trade if he could net us some trade value (e.g. late first rounder).

[FNG]

Every new double digit Nuggets win in this finals (3 of them now...and Miami had to shoot an unsustainable 49% on threes to get their one win) strengthens my belief that we have to run this roster back...we played this dominant Nuggets team as closely as anyone in this postseason, and that is meaningful. Or at least as much of this roster as they can while considering the upcoming 2024-5 salary cap predicament, and I provided a blueprint in the salary cap thread for how to navigate it. Naz is going to want a multi-year contract and we clearly can't afford him in 2024-5, so we will have to let him go. We can keep NAW for next season but only on a 1-year contract...he will also be too expensive to fit under the second apron. JMac was a huge disappointment after he returned from his calf injury, but we can't overlook how effective he was pre-injury...and he is exactly the kind of "$2 million filler" we can afford with our top 7 guys consuming so much of the cap. I think thoughts about adding a more effective backup PG in free agency are a pipe dream if TC intends to keep the band together.

However I note Lip's post in the big man thread saying many NBA execs expect KAT to be moved this offseason, and I don't find that unlikely. A KAT deal would tell me either Lore has told TC he's not interested in entering lux tax land (much less challenging the second apron), or that TC has told ownership he doesn't think it's feasible to avoid the second apron in 2024-5 without unloading one of the max contracts. I guess we will find out soon.

[Carlos Danger]

Great topic. I'm on board with most of 60WinTim's thoughts/proposals. I totally agree on Prince. I think he's really over valued by some on this board.

My one difference is (like WildWolf) I think now is the time to move KAT. Get a combo of players and draft capital back to backfill what we gave up on Rudy. We know we can be about .500 without KAT - because we did it this past year. Start building around Edwards and McDaniels.

Build a better roster. Nobody is convinced KAT/Gobert is going to work. And Gobert isn't going anywhere IMO - at least as long as TC is in charge.

Edwards had very little help in our last playoff series. KAT hasn't flashed much in the playoffs and that's over three different years/playoff series. I'm not confident he's ever going to be a difference maker in the playoffs based on what he's done up to this point. He sure wasn't this past year. I'm not saying dump him for whatever we can get. But a "reverse Rudy trade"? I'm all in.

[Lipoli390]

If the Wolves sign NAW starting at $5M this next season, they’d have a roster of 11 with a total payroll of $147,143,512. That would leave the the team about $15 million under the expected luxury tax threshold for the 2023-24 season. The Wolves can’t justify exceeding the luxury tax threshold after a 42-win season, knowing that the team will invariably be over the threshold next season and, therefore, subject to repeater penalties.

So what does this mean for running it back? It means the Wolves can’t use their MLE or BAE if they bring back Naz. At most, they can use the full MLE or bring back Naz, assuming Naz can be retained for only around $12M. If Naz costs $15 million as I suspect he will, then they can’t run it back with Naz because they’d have no room under the luxury tax threshold to fill out the rest of the roster even at minimum salaries. Not signing Naz and using the full MLE would probably leave just enough luxury tax room to sign three minimum vet players to fill out the roster. However, there would be no room to use the BAE in that scenario.

In other words, it will be really difficult to run it back next season and stay under the luxury tax threshold. Moreover, it will be extremely difficult to retain both NAW and Naz under any circumstances. But that’s just next season. The more serious issue is the following season when Ant’s and Jaden’s new contracts kick in while KAT’s and Rudy’s salaries escalate. Running it back next season will set the team up to exceed the 2nd apron the following season and that would be an untenable situation. In other words, there’s a harsh reality ahead that this organization needs to address honestly now. I’m convinced we should trade Rudy even though our return will be far less than we gave up to get him. But as much as I want to keep KAT, the problem is so serious that I’m on board with trading KAT this summer if this organization doesn’t have the smarts and resolve to trade Rudy.

[Coolbreeze44]

I can't see anybody willing to take on Rudy's contract. That coupled with TC admitting his blunder makes a Gobert trade seem highly unlikely. I think KAT will be traded this summer and hopefully that means we can retain NAZ. Now, let's get a bidding war going for KAT and maximize the return.

[Lipoli390]

I can't see anybody willing to take on Rudy's contract. That coupled with TC admitting his blunder makes a Gobert trade seem highly unlikely. I think KAT will be traded this summer and hopefully that means we can retain NAZ. Now, let's get a bidding war going for KAT and maximize the return.

Cool - I think trading KAT rather than Rudy would be the wrong move, but I you’re right that TC won’t trade Rudy this summer. Therefore, I have to agree that it’s time to get the KAT bidding war started.

[Phenom]

Whether or not the braintrust decides to run it back, they and everyone else knows they can't run it back anymore after that. The Dane Moore pod about trading for Scoot is a great listen and lays it all out. So what is the actual upside for running it back? The possibility of improved trade value for KAT or maybe Gobert. So now we weigh an improved trade value with KAT against his salary increasing by 15 or so million and then trading him. And that is best case scenario. What if KAT has another year like this and/or no shows in the playoffs?

As far as Naz, I still believe that resigning him has nothing to do with KAT and Rudy since one of them is not going to be in the long term plans anymore. He will be replacing one of them.

Trading KAT for a high level rookie does make some sense as it will better stagger high dollar contracts. If someone like Scoot hits then he gets paid when. Gobert comes off the books and possibly resigns at a lower number.

I saw a report yesterday, I think from Eric Pincus, that many execs believe KAT will be traded soon and I think that is accurate and probably the best option for the organization.

[Lipoli390]

Whether or not the braintrust decides to run it back, they and everyone else knows they can't run it back anymore after that. The Dane Moore pod about trading for Scoot is a great listen and lays it all out. So what is the actual upside for running it back? The possibility of improved trade value for KAT or maybe Gobert. So now we weigh an improved trade value with KAT against his salary increasing by 15 or so million and then trading him. And that is best case scenario. What if KAT has another year like this and/or no shows in the playoffs?

As far as Naz, I still believe that resigning him has nothing to do with KAT and Rudy since one of them is not going to be in the long term plans anymore. He will be replacing one of them.

Trading KAT for a high level rookie does make some sense as it will better stagger high dollar contracts. If someone like Scoot hits then he gets paid when. Gobert comes off the books and possibly resigns at a lower number.

I saw a report yesterday, I think from Eric Pincus, that many execs believe KAT will be traded soon and I think that is accurate and probably the best option for the organization.

Phenom - I think you’ve crystallized the analysis perfectly. We can’t realistically “run it back” with both KAT and Rudy beyond next season. And I just don’t see a meaningful net benefit (or perhaps any net benefit) to running it back with both bigs for only one more season.

My only very small caveat to your post is that keeping both KAT and Rudy for one more season would impede the team’s ability to re-sign NAW and Naz. Naz will cost at least $12 million next season and probably $15 million or more. NAW will cost at least $5 million. Signing Naz at a bargain $12M and NAW at $5 million would put the Wolves payroll at $159,143,512 for 12 players. That would leave the Wolves about $3 million under the luxury tax threshold with two roster slots to fill. All vet minimum contracts had a $1.7 million value for cap purposes. That number is likely to go up, but even if it doesn’t, signing two vets would likely put the Wolves slightly over the luxury tax threshold. The Wolves could sign one rookie (their 2nd-round pick) and one vet to make it work. So it’s doable, but barely. Note we would not be able to use any of our MLE or BAE.

Again, the far more important point is the one you, I and others including Dane Moore have raised - i.e., this team can’t realistically run it back with both bigs for more than one season. It’s a reality this organization should confront sooner rather than later. And that reality means trading KAT or Rudy this summer.