Running It Back

[Coolbreeze44]

Lip, TC would have to convince a team to take on Rudy's enormous contract. After this past season, do you really think that's realistic? I think the biggest impediment to moving Rudy is the contract. It's just not going to happen I'm afraid.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, TC would have to convince a team to take on Rudy's enormous contract. After this past season, do you really think that's realistic? I think the biggest impediment to moving Rudy is the contract. It's just not going to happen I'm afraid.

Rudy’s contract is definitely an impediment. But TC was willing to take on that contract while also giving up the Wolves #20 pick in last year’s draft, three rotation players (two of them starters), three future unprotected first-round picks, one top-5 protected first-round pick, and a pick swap for Rudy. If the Wolves can’t move Rudy for substantially less salary in 2024 and at least one mid-first-round pick and one second rounder, then TC should be fired first thing Monday morning.

If Portland is serious about making a run with Lillard, then they can use their #3 pick for an elite player and trade their #23 pick along with Nurkic, Little, Knox and a future 2nd-round pick for Rudy. They were trying to trade Nurkic at the February trade deadline. Little’s playing time was down last season and Knox gives them nothing. I wouldn’t be thrilled to have Nurkic, but this deal would save enough cap room to re-sign Naz and NAW this season without going over the luxury tax threshold. More importantly, it would waive the Wolves $19 million in 2024, ensuring that the Wolves stay below the second apron. If the Blazers want to make a serious run with Lillard and are willing to give up their #3 pick for an elite veteran to make it happen, they they should also be willing to take on Rudy’s contract to substantially upgrade their center position. But it’s hard to know.

[Monster]

Here are some interesting dates that might tell us a bit more...

6/22 - The Draft. Who do the Wolves take in the 2nd round, and do we think he has a chance to make the active roster, which would be a cheap roster spot. If a KAT trade is coming, this would be the time...

6/28 - Prince's contract becomes guaranteed. If the Wolves want his money to use elsewhere, then he needs to be waived by this date.

6/29 - Knight's contract becomes partially guaranteed. If they want the money and the roster spot, then bye-bye Nate.

6/29 - 2-way QO's can be made to Garza and Ryan. Might give us a clue as to whether either might be retained.

6/30 - JMac's contract becomes guaranteed. I gotta think backup PG is on the Wolves shopping list. And with Moore on the roster with guaranteed $s, I'm not sure JMac sticks.

6/30 at 5pm CDT - Free agency negotiations can begin. The Wolves were very quick to agree with Slo-Mo last year. I wouldn't be surprised if they are quick again this year.

So, what position do you put a higher priority on? Backup PG? Or a Naz replacement?

Tim Good catch on Knight’s contract. I had thought that partial guarantee was locked in. I like Knight and think he might be a useful NBA player but with Garza’s emergence and the fact that even if Naz leaves the Wolves could likely sign someone else cheap they should let knight go. It seemed pretty clear to me they valued Garza more highly last year.

McLaughlin…I not sure I see the value in letting him go unless the team adds 2 more PGs in some way shape or form. The roster currently has one true PG, Mike Conley a 35 year old PG with some injury history. On the other hand McLaughlin is a 27 year old undersized PG that has had his own injury history and seems to take a while to get up to speed at times after a layoff. I still believe in his ability to impact the game in a positive way for the cost of his contract…if healthy but as much as I do like him maybe it’s time to try out the next McLaughlin type and hope to hit again. They could also use that roster spot on a more proven vet backup PG while adding another younger guy with potential…even if it’s to be a cheap backup. If that’s a rookie as I mentioned a while ago that could save them some money too.

If the Wolves give QO on the 2-way contracts they can’t sign anyone else to 2-way deals unless they rescind that. I’d be surprised if they didn’t at least leave Matt Ryan’s 2-way spot open to sign someone after the draft. Has Garza proved to be too good for a 2-way deal?

[Carlos Danger]

Off the top of my head, I just can't come up with many instances where GMs made a splash trade only to give up on the player after only a year. The only example I can think of for the Wolves was Butler. But that was more Butler forcing his way out in his second year from what I recall. I'm sure some posters might be able to come up with a handful of examples. But I believe those will be the exceptions to the rule. GMs just don't flip on a guy they went out to get that quickly. It would be assumed that a lot of thought/research was put into making such a big trade. TC saw something in Gobert that he thinks will work for the Wolves. He paid a premium for that reason. He's not going to flip on that vision after one year. End of story.

Gobert first season with the Wolves was not up to the standard of his previous three (All Star) seasons. But let's not act like he was terrible. He still led the Wolves in Win Shares with 7.8. And he improved their defense which I assume was the biggest reason they got him. I understand that the team didn't click like we thought/hoped. But I don't know if that's all on Gobert or other factors (coach, system, injuries, team chemistry etc.). I have no problem running Rudy back for year two. Let's see what other moves TC makes this off season. Gobert and his lobster hands ain't going anywhere.

[60WinTim]

I had been thinking we had a bit of an overlap with both Prince and Minott on the roster, assuming Minott is ready to contribute a few minutes. But you kill two birds with one stone if you pencil Prince into the Naz role -- replacing Naz and putting Minott behind McDaniels. That means your 18 mil only needs to re-sign NAW, sign a backup PG, and fill out the roster with vet-minimum guys.

As I peruse through the list of FA PGs, the one that keeps standing out for me is Cory Joseph. Make him the day one target in free agency, ala Kyle Anderson, re-sign NAW, and fill out the roster.

[Lipoli390]

I had been thinking we had a bit of an overlap with both Prince and Minott on the roster, assuming Minott is ready to contribute a few minutes. But you kill two birds with one stone if you pencil Prince into the Naz role -- replacing Naz and putting Minott behind McDaniels. That means your 18 mil only needs to re-sign NAW, sign a backup PG, and fill out the roster with vet-minimum guys.

As I peruse through the list of FA PGs, the one that keeps standing out for me is Cory Joseph. Make him the day one target in free agency, ala Kyle Anderson, re-sign NAW, and fill out the roster.

Tim - Good point about factoring Minott into the overall equation. But I don’t think Minott should impact what the Wolves do with Naz. I’d keep Naz if the price is right - meaning if the Wolves can keep him without exceeding the luxury tax threshold. Although the 2nd apron in 2024 is the biggest concern, there are also transactional restrictions associated with exceeding the initial luxury tax threshold and those restrictions are exacerbated by repeater penalties that would kick in the following season.

I think keeping Naz should be a high priority. He’s a fairly unique talent with significant remaining upside. The Wolves let Chauncey Billups go just when he was showing clear signs of breaking out. It turned out to be a huge mistake and I think letting Naz walk would be a similar mistake. Naz has substantial value to the Wolves on the court as a young talent who fits well chronologically with Ant and Jaden, but he will likely also have substantial trade value over the course of a new contract. I remain excited about Minott’s upside so he’s a keeper as well. The Wolves should absolutely keep both in my view. If anything, Minott could factor into whether the Wolves trade Prince this summer. Prince would bring back good value in return. So trading Prince would be a much smarter move than letting Naz walk.

As for Cory Joseph, I wouldn’t even have him on my FA list, much less at the top of my list. If we want a vet PG to back up Conley in the short run, then I’d opt for Pat Bev. But the smarter move would be to prioritize signing a young PG who can backup Conley next season AND eventually succeed Conley thereafter. That would be #1 on my FA and draft shopping list. There are multiple avenues for finding that sort of young PG, and if TC is worth anything, that’s what he is supposed to do. There will be good PG prospects available at pick #53 and among the undrafted players this summer. There are talented young PG prospects on G-League rosters and on two-way contracts with other NBA teams. If the Wolves trade KAT for a high lottery pick or Rudy for a low 1st-round pick, they’ll have a shot at some very highly regarded PG prospects.

[60WinTim]

FNG - I looked at your calculations for 2024-25 salaries, and you have a flaw! You're projected 180 mil 2nd apron threshold is off -- the current estimate is 191.5 mil. That's an additional 11.5 mil to fill out the roster. No problem!

I know TC didn't make the Gobert trade without understanding the salary cap ramifications for this coming year and beyond. It's clear he has a 2-year vision to make the KAT-Gobert tandem work. If something needs to change after that, then so be it. And they had to be operating under the assumption that if it is working, they are willing to go into the luxury tax in 2024-25.

While this season fell short of their expectations, I don't see why they would change course this offseason given the adverse circumstances thrown at them. Run it back, see what happens, and make adjustments/tweaks next offseason.

[Lipoli390]

No traction on Karl-Anthony Towns trade as of now:

Darren Wolfson on a potential Karl-Anthony Towns trade: “I’m not ruling it out. But what I can tell you in real time is I’ve checked with two team’s front office executives very high up, two teams that make logical sense if the Wolves were to trade Karl-Anthony Towns. If they let the league know, ‘Hey, we’re interested in trading Karl-Anthony Towns’, these two teams undoubtedly would at least inquire… Well, these two executives told me so far crickets. They have not had any trade dialogue with the Wolves. – via Spotify

It’s Doogie, I know. But other than the Pincus report on the speculation of “several NBA executives”, there are no reports of any KAT or Rudy trade activity actually brewing. I can understand why some NBA executives would speculate that the Wolves will trade KAT this summer. It’s no different that the speculation on this board based on the financial and transactional peril of keeping both bigs beyond next season.

So I think crickets is probably an accurate description of what’s going on with respect to KAT. Honestly, that makes sense. I don’t think the Wolves should be calling other teams about KAT. There’s obviously reason for other NBA executives to speculate that the Wolves MIGHT be interested in trading KAT. Therefore, if any of those team executives are interested in KAT, they can pick up the phone and call. I’m sure they all have TC on speed dial. Meanwhile, TC should sit back and wait for teams to call and perhaps in time he’ll get the proverbial offer he can’t refuse, which hopefully would not be a horse head in his bed.

If I were TC, I’d probably make some calls to other team executives about Rudy. Maybe that would lead to a Rudy deal worth making. Another possibility is that another team’s executive would say, “we’re not interested in Rudy, but what would it take to pry KAT away from you?’”

[60WinTim]

But Lip! This is the "running it back" thread, not the trade KAT or Rudy thread...

Some other reasons I don't believe the Wolves will shake things up this offseason:

- TC said he wants adults and continuity surrounding ANT (and the young guys) so they have a chance to develop ASAP. Changing things up by moving a core piece does not help that strategy. ANT made great progress last year, but has a lot more growth in front of him. Another year of stability will help maximize that growth.

- All these #s are just estimates. Things can change, both for good or bad. Lets say you hit on cheap contracts this year that would have allowed you to stay under the 2nd apron next offseason. You might be kicking yourself for giving up prematurely on what you built last year.

- The contracts for NAW and McDaniels will factor in to what is or is not possible next offseason financially. But who knows when we will learn what either of those contracts will be. Maybe McDaniels doesn't agree to terms and becomes a restricted FA next offseason. There are just so many unknowns about the financials of 2024 that it makes sense to let things playout next season (assuming they are happy with roster as constructed).

Another clue to their thinking is what kind of length the contracts are for anyone signed this offseason. A sizeable contract for more than one year would suggest a big contract being moved next offseason...

[Sundog]

Connelly also said that Ant and Jaden should expect aggressive offers as soon as they are eligible for extension -- does anyone know when that is? I'd hope that the FO is checking with Ant about roster construction going forward, since we all agree this is Ant's team now.

Crickets is all we're hearing from this team on any subject... hence the umpteen pages of speculation on multiple threads