Next Years Bigs

[kekgeek]

I wouldn’t call Rudy Gobert a generational talent by any stretch. KAT is arguably a generational talent as a big who is elite scoring from anywhere on the court, including shooting 40% from beyond the arc. His skill set at his size along with his scoring efficiency and consistency game to game make KAT elite. And two years ago, he improved his defense to the point where his defensive rating was the same as Rudy Gobert’s was last season. But even then I’m not sure he’s generational. Rudy’s nowhere close to anything I’d call a generational talent in my view.

It seems obvious to everyone except perhaps the Wolves front office execs that one or the other will have to be traded before the 2024-25 season. It strikes me that it’s better to trade one of them this summer rather than wait until next. In my mind, trading Rudy seems like a much better move than trading KAT, but I acknowledge that the argument for trading KAT based on the value we could get in return compared to what we’d likely get for Gobert is a strong one.

You're so gung-ho on selling off Gobert for pennies, that I am unsure if you even rationalize the potential difference between trading Gobert vs. trading KAT. One is the potential difference gain in value from a player for players + picks deal. Another is player culture, KAT impedes it. Whether others believe it or not, Goberts competitive spirit is far more aligned with Ant than KAT’S is. Another is the FO throwing the chest at Gobert, they won't accept being made fun of now. Another is the contract difference with Gobert and KAT moving forward with the new CBA.

Keep them all if I printed money. But I do not. You will have to choose one, I am leaning towards moving KAT for a big trade while you can, then utilizing Conley’s and Gobert's contract in trades moving forward to build more around Ant, Jaden, Naz, NAW. Those 4 would be 4 of my 9 core moving forward. Gobert, KAT, Conley, Anderson, Prince are holding those other 5 slots intermittently, keep them but plug and replace when possible.

I am not sure what you are using to measure some of these intangibles, but for the next 3 years of KAT and Rudy contracts there is only about 10 mil total difference. The fact that most on here and around the league believe KAT would bring back considerably more in value should tell us who we should keep.

Now Cool believes we would have a hard time moving Rudy at all, and I am not sure he is wrong on that. Plenty of chatter about KAT without any mention of his contract. Offensive players are what everyone looks for, and we have one of the best bigs when it comes to that (and he wants to be here). The draft picks are gone, but Rudy's salary is what worries me. I am also curious as to how much of our improved D was due to Rudy, and how much to improved play of Ant, McD and Anderson.

Ant defense rating was 5.4 pts better with Rudy than without

Mcdaniels defensive rating was 4.8 pts better with Rudy than without

Slow Mo defensive rating was 8.5 pts better with Rudy than without.

All 3 guys defensive rating were boarderline elite with Rudy and were slightly below average to below average without Rudy.

I know lip loves bring up Kat defensive rating last year is the same as Rudy this year but eliminating the context of scoring is up across the league. And Kat was in the 50th percentile in defensive rating last year and Rudy was on the 89th percentile this year.

There were 104 players who played 2000 minutes last year and here is where Rudy ranks on impact on defense when he is On the court compared to off.
Defensive rating: 9th
Efg%: 25th
Defensive rebounding rate: 10th
Opponent FT rate: 1st

I feel like this board has backed me into a Rudy corner with all the Rudy slander when Rudy was a gigantic difference maker on defense last year. He was garbage on offense, now if the wolves can figure out how to play offense with Rudy like the Jazz did the wolves are going to be a damn good team because defensively because of Rudy the Wolves are elite

[Carlos Danger]

Everything I've read from TC and Finch would indicate they want to at least start the year with KAT/Rudy. That would make sense. Clearly they would have put a lot of thought into going out to get Gobert and how that would look/work. What's changed since they made that decision to get Gobert? Nothing. Unless you count the subtle moves to accommodate Rudy like moving DLO for Conley. That certainly wouldn't indicate to me that Rudy is going anywhere. He's not.

From what I remember, Towns was sick/missed time in training camp last year and Rudy did as well. Then, they ended up only played 27 regular season games together, plus five in the playoffs. That's not enough time/data to try and reverse stream on such a big trade. No way.

I think it makes sense to keep them both to start the year unless some team blows us away with a "reverse Rudy" type offer on KAT. Otherwise, run them back and re-evaluate at the trade deadline based on how competitive we are.

[Sundog]

I know what you mean, kek, and it’s not just on the defensive side of the ball. I posted something in one of these threads that Ant’s true shooting percentage was among the league’s best when Rudy was on the floor, and pretty mundane when Rudy wasn’t. I also liked a point you made somewhere that keeping Rudy instead of KAT allows the wolves to get off the center super max cheaper and earlier, providing additional roster and salary flexibility.

[WildWolf2813]

I'm starting to really have high hopes for Jake Stephens out of Chattanooga as a 3rd big /new project to be another Reid.

7 feet, 275, yes, he played in the Southern Conference but his numbers are staggering

22ppg
9.8 rpg
3.4 apg
55% FG
40.8% 3PT
2.2 blocks

most importantly, decreased his fouls per game from year to year.

I'll take him over Garza, and hopefully, in 2 years he can be the guy who steps in after a KAT or Gobert trade.

[FNG]

I'm starting to really have high hopes for Jake Stephens out of Chattanooga as a 3rd big /new project to be another Reid.

7 feet, 275, yes, he played in the Southern Conference but his numbers are staggering

22ppg
9.8 rpg
3.4 apg
55% FG
40.8% 3PT
2.2 blocks

most importantly, decreased his fouls per game from year to year.

I'll take him over Garza, and hopefully, in 2 years he can be the guy who steps in after a KAT or Gobert trade.

I'm more and more convinced the Wolves will take a Naz-replacing big at 53, and that there will be options there. Good find on Stephens, WW. I'd also point people toward Tubelis, Tshiebwe, Sanogo, Vuckevic and Evbuomwan (whom they worked out yesterday)...all who could be available at 53.

[FNG]

You're so gung-ho on selling off Gobert for pennies, that I am unsure if you even rationalize the potential difference between trading Gobert vs. trading KAT. One is the potential difference gain in value from a player for players + picks deal. Another is player culture, KAT impedes it. Whether others believe it or not, Goberts competitive spirit is far more aligned with Ant than KAT’S is. Another is the FO throwing the chest at Gobert, they won't accept being made fun of now. Another is the contract difference with Gobert and KAT moving forward with the new CBA.

Keep them all if I printed money. But I do not. You will have to choose one, I am leaning towards moving KAT for a big trade while you can, then utilizing Conley’s and Gobert's contract in trades moving forward to build more around Ant, Jaden, Naz, NAW. Those 4 would be 4 of my 9 core moving forward. Gobert, KAT, Conley, Anderson, Prince are holding those other 5 slots intermittently, keep them but plug and replace when possible.

I am not sure what you are using to measure some of these intangibles, but for the next 3 years of KAT and Rudy contracts there is only about 10 mil total difference. The fact that most on here and around the league believe KAT would bring back considerably more in value should tell us who we should keep.

Now Cool believes we would have a hard time moving Rudy at all, and I am not sure he is wrong on that. Plenty of chatter about KAT without any mention of his contract. Offensive players are what everyone looks for, and we have one of the best bigs when it comes to that (and he wants to be here). The draft picks are gone, but Rudy's salary is what worries me. I am also curious as to how much of our improved D was due to Rudy, and how much to improved play of Ant, McD and Anderson.

Ant defense rating was 5.4 pts better with Rudy than without

Mcdaniels defensive rating was 4.8 pts better with Rudy than without

Slow Mo defensive rating was 8.5 pts better with Rudy than without.

All 3 guys defensive rating were boarderline elite with Rudy and were slightly below average to below average without Rudy.

I know lip loves bring up Kat defensive rating last year is the same as Rudy this year but eliminating the context of scoring is up across the league. And Kat was in the 50th percentile in defensive rating last year and Rudy was on the 89th percentile this year.

There were 104 players who played 2000 minutes last year and here is where Rudy ranks on impact on defense when he is On the court compared to off.
Defensive rating: 9th
Efg%: 25th
Defensive rebounding rate: 10th
Opponent FT rate: 1st

I feel like this board has backed me into a Rudy corner with all the Rudy slander when Rudy was a gigantic difference maker on defense last year. He was garbage on offense, now if the wolves can figure out how to play offense with Rudy like the Jazz did the wolves are going to be a damn good team because defensively because of Rudy the Wolves are elite

I agree that Rudy is a huge difference maker on defense, Kek, but I think saying he was garbage on offense is harsh. His ability to screen along with 3.3 offensive rebounds and 67.5 TS% tells me he was at least average on offense. And I actually liked how our offense looked after Conley replaced DLo at PG. I agree with TC that Rudy can be better of offense, and expect big improvement this year.

[Q-is-here]

It kind of makes sense to target a big at #53 since it's a position you can find real value in these days and we need to plan for a post-KAT and/or post-Gobert future some years down the road. Naz Reid himself went undrafted!

But if there is a PG they really like there, you gotta look at that too. Seems like any big guard or wing with a jump shot would be long gone by then, so bigs and PGs might be where there is some value.

[WildWolf2813]

It kind of makes sense to target a big at #53 since it's a position you can find real value in these days and we need to plan for a post-KAT and/or post-Gobert future some years down the road. Naz Reid himself went undrafted!

But if there is a PG they really like there, you gotta look at that too. Seems like any big guard or wing with a jump shot would be long gone by then, so bigs and PGs might be where there is some value.

TC is gonna need to work those phones and get some guys signed to two ways immediately the way we got Naz. Naz was practically a Wolf the second the 60th pick was read.