Updated Wolves Post-Draft Salary Situation

[Lipoli390]

I’m convinced the Wolves front office will make sure the Wolves remain just under the luxury tax threshold next season for two reasons: (1) to retain the higher MLE that would be substantially reduced if they exceeded the luxury tax; and (2) to avoid the repeater penalties knowing that the Wolves will absolutely be over the luxury tax threshold next season even if they trade KAT or Rudy. Looking closely at the Wolves salary situation, I think they can do it and still re-sign Naz and NAW. But if they re-sign Naz and NAW it’s unlikely they’ll be able to do more than add one more player at the vet minimum.

Here’s the situation. The Wolves currently have 10 players under contract for next season at a total payroll of $141,948,512. Meanwhile, the luxury tax threshold estimate has gone up from around $162M to around $165 M. That $3M increase is the key that makes keeping Naz and NAW possible without becoming a luxury tax team. That puts the Wolves about $23M under the luxury tax threshold.

The Wolves drafted two players in the second round. The mandated salary for the League’s 30th pick is just over $2M. Therefore, I expect Miller as the #33 pick to get about $1.8M. Clark was the #53 pick and probably won’t play because of his Achilles surgery. They might put him on a two-way deal, but more likely they’ll sign him to around League minimum at $1.2M. Signing these two picks at these amounts would put the Wolves $20M under the threshold with two or three more roster spots to fill.

So with a roster of 12, the Wolves would have $20 million to re-sign both Naz and NAW. I’m assuming NAW will cost $5M on a multi-year deal. Assuming the Naz Reid’s salary starts at $13M, the Wolves would be about $2M under the luxury tax threshold with $2M to spend on a vet to fill the 15th slot. They can keep Garza on a two-way and find two more young players for the remaining two-way contracts. I expect the Wolves won’t pick up Knight’s option.

The rub in all this, is that there’s no room for the Wolves to sign a free agent using the MLE or BAE. I honestly don’t think the Wolves will start the season without adding a quality backup PG and that would probably require at least using the BAE. Therefore, if the Wolves re-sign both Naz and NAW and also add a consequential player to the roster, they’ll have to make a trade - probably involving Prince either alone or in combination with JMac. So what should the Wolves do. If the Wolves re-sign Naz and NAW as they reportedly want to do, then the Wolves can probably stay under the luxury tax t threshold next season and they’d start the season with the following roster:

1. KAT
2. Rudy
3. Edwards
4. McDaniels
5. Conley
6. Kyle Anderson
7. Prince
8. JMac
9. Moore
10. Minott
11. Naz
12. NAW
13. Miller
14. Clark or Garza
15. Minimum Salary vet or open roster spot

I’d be fine starting the season with this roster. I haven’t lost all faith in JMac as a backup. Edwards looks like he can be a de facto PG in the mold of Jordan and Kobe if Conley goes down for a stretch. NAW has shown lead-guard capability and it would be nice to see if Moore can step up.

[Monster]

If I’m the Wolves ownership I’d kinda want to try to stay under the luxury tax for one more season to get that sweet money coming from the team that pay in. On the other hand if Connelly said he could bring in some legitimately good players that put us over I would be ok with that as well.

Washington has 3 worthwhile PGs that would help the Wolves if they were acquired. What is the price for those guys? What are other teams willing to give up for them? Does Washington actually want to keep Tyus as a youngish player for their rebuild? That’s not the only team with some extra PGs. Does Prichard now want to stay with Boston since he will likely have a larger role? Maybe a team trades away one PG to Washington and the Wolves can get that guy. It just feels like a trade to help the backcourt could really happen and it might cost next to nothing. There could be a trade that may also help with the salary crunch. If Prince is moved who fills his role as primary backup SF and also top bench 3 point shooter? I like to some extent Knight but it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to keep him at this point.

[60WinTim]

A couple thoughts:

I would lay odds the Wolves only carry 14 players, leaving a roster spot for potential use in the future. (they will eventually carry the three 2-ways they are allowed to have, which could include Garza and/or Ryan).

I think you are right that Miller signs a contract for a roster spot. I am not sure what the options are for Clark, but since he won't be playing with the Wolves this season, maybe they can push his official contract off a year.

While the Wolves say they want to re-sign Naz, I'm not sure they offer the full MLE-type money, and I doubt the 2nd year is guaranteed. This will put Naz in a tough position -- return because he wants to be here, or find greener pastures elsewhere. My money is on elsewhere, but if he chooses to return, the Wolves will not have spent the farm on him and keep flexibility for 2024-25.

If Naz leaves, I expect the Wolves to sign a FA using a portion of the MLE, but only the first year will be guaranteed.

NAW is an interesting case as well. The Wolves may not offer guaranteed money in the 2nd year (ala Prince). And if he doesn't like it, he can just take the 7 mil qualifying offer and see what happens next offseason. This would not surprise me at all.

And while JMac may be retained, TC doesn't strike me as the type of GM to "wish for JMac's return to form". He will sign or trade for someone who is considered a more reliable backup PG, maybe even a potential Conley heir apparent, such as Tyus Jones.

We ought to have a much clearer picture in the next week or two.

[Lipoli390]

Tim - I agree the Wolves will likely leave the 15th roster spot open. If they’re serious about retaining Naz, they’ll have to pay him more than the full MLE the first year of a multi-year contract. Offering Naz more than the full MLE substantially limits the number of teams in a position to financially compete with the Wolves for Naz. I have no doubt there are capped out teams that will offer their full MLE to Naz. I take TC at his word that he really wants to keep Naz. Therefore, if we’re being realistic, we have to assume that the Wolves will offer Naz at least around $13M in the first year of a multi year deal. But that’s OK. The slightly higher luxury tax threshold will allow the Wolves to pay Naz that amount (even slightly higher) without becoming a luxury tax team.

Assuming the Wolves re-sign Naz, any meaningful additions to the roster will have to come via trade. I think Monster’s post does a nice job of laying out some of the choices and options the Wolves will have in front of them. If Naz moves on for a more bigger role, which is a very realistic possibility), then that would open up all sorts of options for the Wolves. For example, if Naz wants a starting role, he’d likely get that with the Wizards. They’re not capped out, but they might be open to trading Tyus in a sign-and-trade for Naz to save cap money for other free agents.

[FNG]

I think TC will put together the strongest roster he can for a championship run this season, with two constraints:

1) He will keep the payroll under the lux tax threshold to avoid being a repeater in 2024-5

2) Every move will be made with an eye toward staying under the apron in 2024-5.

With that in mind, I find it unlikely that Naz will still be on the roster in 2024-5. I agree there is mutual interest in Naz staying here, but my guess is some team will make an attractive offer the Wolves will not match.

I actually think Clark will see the court this season. An achilles takes 9-12 months to heal, so that is sometime between December and March. I expect to see him on the court late in the season.

JMac's poor finish to the season has this board focused on picking up another option to pair with Conley. I suspect that the Wolves brass is more focused on how JMac looks this summer working out with his teammates and his body of work before his calf injury than they are on his forgettable games in the playoffs. JMac is a bargain at $2 million if his playoff performance was an aberration. My guess is that the Wolves will begin the season with JMac backing up Conley at PG.

[Lipoli390]

I think TC will put together the strongest roster he can for a championship run this season, with two constraints:

1) He will keep the payroll under the lux tax threshold to avoid being a repeater in 2024-5

2) Every move will be made with an eye toward staying under the apron in 2024-5.

With that in mind, I find it unlikely that Naz will still be on the roster in 2024-5. I agree there is mutual interest in Naz staying here, but my guess is some team will make an attractive offer the Wolves will not match.

I actually think Clark will see the court this season. An achilles takes 9-12 months to heal, so that is sometime between December and March. I expect to see him on the court late in the season.

JMac's poor finish to the season has this board focused on picking up another option to pair with Conley. I suspect that the Wolves brass is more focused on how JMac looks this summer working out with his teammates and his body of work before his calf injury than they are on his forgettable games in the playoffs. JMac is a bargain at $2 million if his playoff performance was an aberration. My guess is that the Wolves will begin the season with JMac backing up Conley at PG.

Good post, FNG. I completely agree with your framing of the Wolves front office objective to put together the strongest possible team for a championship run next season within the two constraints you mentioned. The Wolves can meeting their objective and re-sign Naz consistent with the first constraint (staying under the luxury tax threshold next season). The second constraint (avoiding the second apron in the 2024-25 season) will be more difficult if they re-sign Naz, but not a show-stopper.

It’s now clear to me that our front office is anticipating some hard decisions after next season. Note that 7 of our current 10 roster players have only one year left on their deals (some of them with team options for more years). So the Wolves actually have a lot of flexibility. However, as we’ve all discussed, the issue will be the combined contracts of KAT, Rudy, Ant and Jaden. Adding Naz at $13-15 million will mean the Wolves have around $170 million tied up in only 5 players, which would be an untenable situation. However, the Wolves could remedy the problem simply by trading one of our three bigs - KAT, Rudy or Naz. All of them will have positive trade value next summer barring some major injury. If the KAT/Rudy combo works really well and the Wolves actually contend next season, then Naz is probably the odd man out. But he should be every bit as valuable in the trade market next summer as he is now. So I just don’t see a major impediment to re-signing KAT now that the 2023-24 luxury tax threshold has increased.

Like you, I haven’t lost faith in JMac. Moreover, we have a number of quality players, including Edwards, Anderson, and NAW, who can run the point for stretches. And of course we’re paying Mike Conley $23 million to be our PG. So I don’t see an urgency to add a PG for next season. We just need to get a young PG into the organization as viable candidate to eventually succeed Conley if JMac can’t be that guy.

I’m not predicting that the Wolves will retain Naz. But I don’t think the two constraints you mentioned will impact whether he stays unless some team with cap room decides to offer Naz north of $15 million next season, which would price him beyond the Wolves ability to pay him without exceeding the luxury tax. If the Wolves don’t re-sign Naz I think it will be because Naz found a better opportunity for him to have a bigger role. That’s one reason I wanted the Wolves to trade Rudy or KAT this summer. Playing behind those two will probably incline Naz to leave. Because I don’t have confidence in the KAT/Rudy pairing, I don’t want keeping them to cause us to lose Naz in free agency. With our draft coffers depleted, we can’t afford to lose a young talent like Naz for nothing. Yes, I really like Minott and Miller, but we can’t count on them to become NBA players much less players of Naz Reid’s caliber.

[Carlos Danger]

I would agree with FNG that JMac might have just have a down year due to injury. And I agree with those who feel we are moving towards Edwards and others handling more of the PG responsibilities. But nobody has pointed out the other shift last year...our Bigs were handing out a ton of Assists last year too. Here are the per 36 Assists from last year:

7.9 - JMac
6.8 - DLO
6.2 - SlowMo
5.7 - Conley
5.3 - Towns
4.4 - Edwards

I'm fine with JMac as a cheap back up. But I still assume they will bring in another vet minimum PG for additional depth. We'd probably be fine with that.

[Lipoli390]

I would agree with FNG that JMac might have just have a down year due to injury. And I agree with those who feel we are moving towards Edwards and others handling more of the PG responsibilities. But nobody has pointed out the other shift last year...our Bigs were handing out a ton of Assists last year too. Here are the per 36 Assists from last year:

7.9 - JMac
6.8 - DLO
6.2 - SlowMo
5.7 - Conley
5.3 - Towns
4.4 - Edwards

I'm fine with JMac as a cheap back up. But I still assume they will bring in another vet minimum PG for additional depth. We'd probably be fine with that.

I agree, Carlos. TC has referred to KAT a couple times recently as a really good passer. KAT won the NBA skills competition his rookie season and he’s proven to be a good passer as TC recently pointed out. I think that’s a part of his game that will continue to develop and improve. Slo Mo’s assists shouldn’t surprise any of us. He came out of college as a PG. As we talk about having a backup PG for Conley, it’s not a stretch at all to view Anderson as his primary backup. And again, I’m with those who haven’t yet written off JMac.

The Wolves may or may not sign a vet minimum PG for depth. I don’t think they’re going to go out of their way to trade for a backup PG and they’re certainly not going to sign a backup PG whose salary pushes them over the luxury tax threshold.

[60WinTim]

I would agree with FNG that JMac might have just have a down year due to injury. And I agree with those who feel we are moving towards Edwards and others handling more of the PG responsibilities. But nobody has pointed out the other shift last year...our Bigs were handing out a ton of Assists last year too. Here are the per 36 Assists from last year:

7.9 - JMac
6.8 - DLO
6.2 - SlowMo
5.7 - Conley
5.3 - Towns
4.4 - Edwards

I'm fine with JMac as a cheap back up. But I still assume they will bring in another vet minimum PG for additional depth. We'd probably be fine with that.

I agree, Carlos. TC has referred to KAT a couple times recently as a really good passer. KAT won the NBA skills competition his rookie season and he’s proven to be a good passer as TC recently pointed out. I think that’s a part of his game that will continue to develop and improve. Slo Mo’s assists shouldn’t surprise any of us. He came out of college as a PG. As we talk about having a backup PG for Conley, it’s not a stretch at all to view Anderson as his primary backup. And again, I’m with those who haven’t yet written off JMac.

The Wolves may or may not sign a vet minimum PG for depth. I don’t think they’re going to go out of their way to trade for a backup PG and they’re certainly not going to sign a backup PG whose salary pushes them over the luxury tax threshold.

Where there's smoke, there is fire. I bet the Wolves make a play for Tyus after July 1st...

[Q-is-here]

Tyus keeps coming up, but Washington literally has three PGs that would really fit well on our roster: Tyus Jones, Monte Morris, and Delon Wright. There is just no way they are keeping all three of those guys.

All would be upgrades to Jordan McLaughlin. I agree with Tim that where there is smoke, there is fire, but I think the fire could be any one of these three players.