Minott & Miller

[Monster]

Welp, Mike Conley woke up 11 mil richer as his 13 mil guarantee is now fully guaranteed at 24 mil.

While Conley is not here for the long term, it always catches my attention when Lip fails to include him in our “core”. I think TC values Conley’s presence around the young guys more that Rudy or KAT!

Darnit...I just checked my bank balance, and I didn't wake up $11 million richer .

Yeah, there's no question that Conley is part of the core, and plans to be for a few more years. 35 years old means different things for different people (look at LeBron for instance...29 PPG at age 38!), and I saw no signs of aging with Mike last season. He still pushes the ball up the court on offense and is very active (and effective) on defense. He said in March that he thinks this roster can compete for a championship, and he expects to play until he's 40. And he's one of those guys who seems to be shooting better as he ages...41.2, 40.8 and 38.5 3-point percentage his past three seasons, and a remarkable 63.1 TS% (best of his career) once he joined the Wolves. I guess that's why I'm not as concerned as others here to find Mike's replacement...I think we have a few years to find the next guy.

The 3-point shooting is huge. He sort of is that perfect blend of game-manager PG and strong outside shooting that we need in the starting lineup. But yeah, just wish he was a bit younger.

Maybe Conley can keep being effective for a few more years even as a smaller PG past the age of 35. It’s worth noting his last season in Memphis at the age of 31 (he played with Kyle Anderson and also Delon Wright) he averaged 21ppg then went to Utah where he played next to a high usage scoring guard Donovan Mitchell for a couple years including his first All-star selection. I have always liked Conley and it’s possible the guy can keep going but I’m not sure I could bet my job and my team’s success on him continuing to be successful as a starter even on lower minutes.

Having said that I’m not sure what move for a PG the Wolves can make at this point that would be something I would bet my job and team’s success on either. I’m not saying the outlook is absolutely bleak because there are options and players that could work its just that there isn’t a clear option. Quite frankly even if the Wolves had some more assets (draft picks) to work with to make a trade I don’t know if there is a guy out there to acquire that I’d feel would be the answer either.

[Lipoli390]

Darnit...I just checked my bank balance, and I didn't wake up $11 million richer .

Yeah, there's no question that Conley is part of the core, and plans to be for a few more years. 35 years old means different things for different people (look at LeBron for instance...29 PPG at age 38!), and I saw no signs of aging with Mike last season. He still pushes the ball up the court on offense and is very active (and effective) on defense. He said in March that he thinks this roster can compete for a championship, and he expects to play until he's 40. And he's one of those guys who seems to be shooting better as he ages...41.2, 40.8 and 38.5 3-point percentage his past three seasons, and a remarkable 63.1 TS% (best of his career) once he joined the Wolves. I guess that's why I'm not as concerned as others here to find Mike's replacement...I think we have a few years to find the next guy.

The 3-point shooting is huge. He sort of is that perfect blend of game-manager PG and strong outside shooting that we need in the starting lineup. But yeah, just wish he was a bit younger.

Maybe Conley can keep being effective for a few more years even as a smaller PG past the age of 35. It’s worth noting his last season in Memphis at the age of 31 (he played with Kyle Anderson and also Delon Wright) he averaged 21ppg then went to Utah where he played next to a high usage scoring guard Donovan Mitchell for a couple years including his first All-star selection. I have always liked Conley and it’s possible the guy can keep going but I’m not sure I could bet my job and my team’s success on him continuing to be successful as a starter even on lower minutes.

Having said that I’m not sure what move for a PG the Wolves can make at this point that would be something I would bet my job and team’s success on either. I’m not saying the outlook is absolutely bleak because there are options and players that could work its just that there isn’t a clear option. Quite frankly even if the Wolves had some more assets (draft picks) to work with to make a trade I don’t know if there is a guy out there to acquire that I’d feel would be the answer either.

Monster - I agree completely with your take on this. Conley was very effective when he came here the end of last season. But as Charles Barkley likes to say, “Father Time is undefeated.” Once NBA players get into their early 30s you never know. Even LeBron, a physical freak, has clearly fallen off the last few years. He was an iron man his entire career until recently and now he’s hurt quite a bit. Conley has a history of getting hurt even in his prime.

It’s clear that TC has cast his lot with Conley for next season. When asked about the PG position long term, TC said they plan to “run Conley until the wheels fall off” or something like that. He laughed because his comment was obviously in jest. But no doubt TC is counting on Conley as the team’s starting PG next season and would like Conley to be the team’s starter as long as he can be effective or until someone better comes along. That makes sense. Note, however, that TC also acknowledged the need to think longer term about the PG position. I don’t remember his exact words, but he made it clear he sees a longer term gap that will need to be filled.

I agree there are no obvious longer-term PG successors out there to pursue right now. And as I’ve noted in other posts, I don’t think we have an urgent need to bring in another PG for next season. What I believe now is what I’ve thought for the last couple years - i.e., TC needs to find some young PGs with upside and bring them into the organization either through the draft or as free agents. I’d still like to see the Wolves bring McClung into the organization. I wish they had drafted Isaiah Wong instead of Clark. But there will be other opportunities. The Wolves will have a 1st-round pick next year to find a PG of the future.

Meanwhile, no doubt Conley is our starting PG. Given his age and injury history, we should expect Conley to miss a significant number of games. But I’m comfortable with Anderson, JMac and NAW (assuming we re-sign him which I think we will) backing up Mike. Edwards can also be lead guard for significantly stretches.

As for who TC considers part of the Wolves core, maybe Conley’s included, maybe not. The context of TC’s references to the team’s “core” has always been in response to questions about whether the Wolves will keep KAT and Rudy next season. So the message TC was sending was that he considers both bigs part of the team’s core for next season. And we all know that Ant and Jaden are even more core to TC’s vision of the team. We know TC won’t trade Ant or Jaden. TC made it clear he won’t trade KAT or Rudy this summer unless he gets an offer that “knocks his socks off.” It seems to me TC clearly wants to keep Anderson and Conley while also re-signing Naz and NAW. But I don’t think TC would need quite the same “knock your socks off” offer to move Conley or Anderson that it would take for him to move KAT or Rudy. That’s just a guess. So I’d put Anderson and Conley in TC’s orbit just outside his core four.

[Q-is-here]

....adding Scoot Henderson and Moore Jr. to the G-League list below.

Bigs & Combo Forwards:
Vanderbilt Age 20* (20 games): 19.9 points, 13.5 rebs, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.4 blks, 4.6 turnovers, 51.8%FG, 25.8% 3-pt
Reid Age 20 (16 games): 21.5 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 2.3 blocks, 3.3 turnovers, 50.5%FG, 38.6% 3-pt
Minott Age 20 (20 games): 21.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks, 2.2 turnovers, 54.1%FG, 36.2% 3-pt
Miller Age 19 (38 games): 20.5 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks, 2.3 turnovers, 53.6%FG, 30.4%3-pt

Guards
Moore Jr. Age 21 (13 games): 21.8 points, 5.3 rebs, 5.4 assts, 1.1 steals, .4 blks, 3.4 turnovers, 45.1%FG, 37% 3-pt
Henderson** Age 19 (25 games): 21.0 points, 6.1 rebs, 7.8 assts, 1.4 steals, .6 blks, 3.9 turnovers, 44.4%FG, 32.4% 3-pt

* Vando's 2nd year in the NBA
** Scoot's 2nd year in the G-league (he played 11 games in '21-22)

[Lipoli390]

....adding Scoot Henderson and Moore Jr. to the G-League list below.

Bigs & Combo Forwards:
Vanderbilt Age 20* (20 games): 19.9 points, 13.5 rebs, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.4 blks, 4.6 turnovers, 51.8%FG, 25.8% 3-pt
Reid Age 20 (16 games): 21.5 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 2.3 blocks, 3.3 turnovers, 50.5%FG, 38.6% 3-pt
Minott Age 20 (20 games): 21.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks, 2.2 turnovers, 54.1%FG, 36.2% 3-pt
Miller Age 19 (38 games): 20.5 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks, 2.3 turnovers, 53.6%FG, 30.4%3-pt

Guards
Moore Jr. Age 21 (13 games): 21.8 points, 5.3 rebs, 5.4 assts, 1.1 steals, .4 blks, 3.4 turnovers, 45.1%FG, 37% 3-pt
Henderson** Age 19 (25 games): 21.0 points, 6.1 rebs, 7.8 assts, 1.4 steals, .6 blks, 3.9 turnovers, 44.4%FG, 32.4% 3-pt

* Vando's 2nd year in the NBA
** Scoot's 2nd year in the G-league (he played 11 games in '21-22)

This is great, Q. Thanks for posting! Very interesting to see the comparison. There are several possible take-aways from these comparative stats. I’ll offer a couple take-aways, even though I’m not sure I’d put a lot of stock in them:

1. The Moore-Henderson comparison tells me we shouldn’t sleep on Moore. Sure, Moore had three years of college ball under his belt and was two years older than Henderson, but the comparative numbers are too close to ignore. Henderson is regarded as a budding star. These numbers suggest that Moore will at least be a very good NBA player. I’ll add that I watched a bunch of Moore video yesterday from both his minutes with the NBA team and the Wolves G-League affiliate. I came away rethinking my somewhat negative take on Moore.

2. The Minott and Miller comparisons to Vando and Naz tell me that we’re right to be excited about both Minott and Miller. Vando has established himself as a good rotation player in the NBA while Naz has established himself as a highly valued rotation and potential starting big. The G-League stats of Minott and Miller are similar across the board to the stats of Vando and Naz. Importantly, Minott and Miller have better FG percentages and fewer turnovers. I see Minott as a better version of Vando - a high-energy defender and rebounder like Vando but with more offensive potential. Miller looks like a combination of Vando and Naz. It will be interesting to watch their development.

[Sundog]

This is fantastic, Q! Eye opening

[Q-is-here]

....adding Scoot Henderson and Moore Jr. to the G-League list below.

Bigs & Combo Forwards:
Vanderbilt Age 20* (20 games): 19.9 points, 13.5 rebs, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.4 blks, 4.6 turnovers, 51.8%FG, 25.8% 3-pt
Reid Age 20 (16 games): 21.5 points, 11.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 2.3 blocks, 3.3 turnovers, 50.5%FG, 38.6% 3-pt
Minott Age 20 (20 games): 21.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks, 2.2 turnovers, 54.1%FG, 36.2% 3-pt
Miller Age 19 (38 games): 20.5 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks, 2.3 turnovers, 53.6%FG, 30.4%3-pt

Guards
Moore Jr. Age 21 (13 games): 21.8 points, 5.3 rebs, 5.4 assts, 1.1 steals, .4 blks, 3.4 turnovers, 45.1%FG, 37% 3-pt
Henderson** Age 19 (25 games): 21.0 points, 6.1 rebs, 7.8 assts, 1.4 steals, .6 blks, 3.9 turnovers, 44.4%FG, 32.4% 3-pt

* Vando's 2nd year in the NBA
** Scoot's 2nd year in the G-league (he played 11 games in '21-22)

This is great, Q. Thanks for posting! Very interesting to see the comparison. There are several possible take-aways from these comparative stats. I’ll offer a couple take-aways, even though I’m not sure I’d put a lot of stock in them:

1. The Moore-Henderson comparison tells me we shouldn’t sleep on Moore. Sure, Moore had three years of college ball under his belt and was two years older than Henderson, but the comparative numbers are too close to ignore. Henderson is regarded as a budding star. These numbers suggest that Moore will at least be a very good NBA player. I’ll add that I watched a bunch of Moore video yesterday from both his minutes with the NBA team and the Wolves G-League affiliate. I came away rethinking my somewhat negative take on Moore.

2. The Minott and Miller comparisons to Vando and Naz tell me that we’re right to be excited about both Minott and Miller. Vando has established himself as a good rotation player in the NBA while Naz has established himself as a highly valued rotation and potential starting big. The G-League stats of Minott and Miller are similar across the board to the stats of Vando and Naz. Importantly, Minott and Miller have better FG percentages and fewer turnovers. I see Minott as a better version of Vando - a high-energy defender and rebounder like Vando but with more offensive potential. Miller looks like a combination of Vando and Naz. It will be interesting to watch their development.

On #1, I watched quite a bit of Moore, Jr. in the G-League last year and he was very good. I guess I didn't get too excited because he was a 1st rounder with 3 years at Duke, so I kind of expected him to play fairly well. But despite his solid across the board numbers in the G-League, I just question whether he has the juice and athleticism to compete at the NBA level and go beyond a fringe bench player. And there is nothing about him that wows you. We'll see....

On #2, I 100% agree. Minott and Miller came into the G-League with very little post-high school experience compared to the other guys I have listed, especially Miller, and both did well. Plus we know both have NBA bodies/athleticism, so I don't think that will be what holds them back. Moore Jr. is a bit more iffy in that area.

[Lipoli390]

Josh Minott interview:

https://youtu.be/8Cc6DU5_PJ4

Minott and Miller are both talented AND smart. It will be fun to watch them in Summer League.

[60WinTim]

Josh Minott interview:

https://youtu.be/8Cc6DU5_PJ4

Minott and Miller are both talented AND smart. It will be fun to watch them in Summer League.

I almost posted that interview under a "Summer Training Camp" thread. Josh has always been so mature and self-aware in his interviews. I know many people have dismissed him as being able to crack the rotation this coming season, but I think he has a chance to push Brown for some minutes. It should be a very entertaining summer league.

[Lipoli390]

Josh Minott interview:

https://youtu.be/8Cc6DU5_PJ4

Minott and Miller are both talented AND smart. It will be fun to watch them in Summer League.

I almost posted that interview under a "Summer Training Camp" thread. Josh has always been so mature and self-aware in his interviews. I know many people have dismissed him as being able to crack the rotation this coming season, but I think he has a chance to push Brown for some minutes. It should be a very entertaining summer league.

Tim - You mentioned Josh being “mature and self-aware.” I almost included that in my post, pointing out the contrast with KAT. But I decided to give KAT a break from the constant barrage of criticism he’s received this summer - although most is deserved.

[Q-is-here]

Josh Minott interview:

https://youtu.be/8Cc6DU5_PJ4

Minott and Miller are both talented AND smart. It will be fun to watch them in Summer League.

I almost posted that interview under a "Summer Training Camp" thread. Josh has always been so mature and self-aware in his interviews. I know many people have dismissed him as being able to crack the rotation this coming season, but I think he has a chance to push Brown for some minutes. It should be a very entertaining summer league.

C - Rudy, KAT, Naz
PF - KAT, Anderson, Naz
SF - McDaniels, Ant, Anderson
SG - Ant, NAW
PG - Conley, Milton

I think that's your 9-man regular rotation. Brown and Minott will need injuries to occur before they get anything besides spot minutes. In Josh's case, I think he's absolutely "next man up" if one of the true bigs gets hurt since he is mostly a PF in my mind. Brown will get minutes of Jaden gets dinged up.