The Aprons -- So what?

[FNG]

What if Wolves trade NAZ to a team with capspace and don't take salary back, can they keep Rudy and KAT?

Kinda defeats the purpose of re-signing him.

The Rudy /KAT pairing might have to break up because KAT's salary jumps tremendously.

Not necessarily. If we think he is someone who has value, we would have him for half a season, assuming we traded him mid-season. Or perhaps for the entire season.

[KG4Ever]

What if Wolves trade NAZ to a team with capspace and don't take salary back, can they keep Rudy and KAT?

Sure, but it will be challenging. And Conley would have to agree to come back on a vet minimum deal (not out of the question for a guy who has made 10s of millions, and has said he wants to raise his family here...especially if he smells a championship).

I believe the cap numbers Kek presents above are for 2023-4...TC's challenge will be 2024-5. I'm going off of Dane Moore's numbers (follow his twitter for terrific cap analysis) and he has the 2024-5 second apron threshold at $199.5 million...lux cap of $182 plus 17.5. If we unload Naz without taking back salary, our payroll could look like this:

KAT: 52
Rudy 44
Ant 32
Jaden 23
SloMo 9
NAW 7
Conley 4
JMac 3
Moore Jr 3
Minott 2
Miller 2
Clark 2
Garza 2
2024 pick 2
No 15th man

That adds up to $188 million, comfortably below the threshold, and even below the threshold if Ant makes $42 million because he made the all-star team.

The biggest question mark for me is if Mike is willing to come back for the vet minimum. If he plays next season anywhere near the level he played last season, TC will want him back. But there may not be much of a market for him at age 37. Besides, TC can pay him a little more if Ant isn't an All-star.

So that's the blueprint for keeping the band together ( minus Naz) through 2024-5. I would be quite optimistic about that roster, especially since it would have Miller as a second year player, Minott and Moore as 3rd players, and 2 rookies in Clark and our pick for next year.

Good stuff FNG! While the prevailing thought is that KAT will be traded, I don't want us to be forced to trade him just to trade him. We could keep the band mostly together if we were to be able to trade Naz into cap space and reduce the capspace for point guard either by Conley taking a big cut (which as you point out at his age, its certainly possible if he thinks the trade off is winning a title) or signing a point guard in free agency and I know that several potentially good fits are unrestricted free agents in 2024 including Tyus and Monte Morris (and also Kyle Lowry, Dinwiddie, Fulltz, Cam Payne, Delon Wright, Clarkson, Kris Dunn).

[Lipoli390]

What if Wolves trade NAZ to a team with capspace and don't take salary back, can they keep Rudy and KAT?

Sure, but it will be challenging. And Conley would have to agree to come back on a vet minimum deal (not out of the question for a guy who has made 10s of millions, and has said he wants to raise his family here...especially if he smells a championship).

I believe the cap numbers Kek presents above are for 2023-4...TC's challenge will be 2024-5. I'm going off of Dane Moore's numbers (follow his twitter for terrific cap analysis) and he has the 2024-5 second apron threshold at $199.5 million...lux cap of $182 plus 17.5. If we unload Naz without taking back salary, our payroll could look like this:

KAT: 52
Rudy 44
Ant 32
Jaden 23
SloMo 9
NAW 7
Conley 4
JMac 3
Moore Jr 3
Minott 2
Miller 2
Clark 2
Garza 2
2024 pick 2
No 15th man

That adds up to $188 million, comfortably below the threshold, and even below the threshold if Ant makes $42 million because he made the all-star team.

The biggest question mark for me is if Mike is willing to come back for the vet minimum. If he plays next season anywhere near the level he played last season, TC will want him back. But there may not be much of a market for him at age 37. Besides, TC can pay him a little more if Ant isn't an All-star.

So that's the blueprint for keeping the band together ( minus Naz) through 2024-5. I would be quite optimistic about that roster, especially since it would have Miller as a second year player, Minott and Moore as 3rd players, and 2 rookies in Clark and our pick for next year.

Good stuff FNG! While the prevailing thought is that KAT will be traded, I don't want us to be forced to trade him just to trade him. We could keep the band mostly together if we were to be able to trade Naz into cap space and reduce the capspace for point guard either by Conley taking a big cut (which as you point out at his age, its certainly possible if he thinks the trade off is winning a title) or signing a point guard in free agency and I know that several potentially good fits are unrestricted free agents in 2024 including Tyus and Monte Morris (and also Kyle Lowry, Dinwiddie, Fulltz, Cam Payne, Delon Wright, Clarkson, Kris Dunn).

I believe the max for Edwards will be $35.7M. Jaden will likely command closer to $30M. Edward at $36M and Jaden at $28M would add about $9M to your estimate, which means we’re knocking at the door of the second apron. And that’s assuming we can re-sign Conley at $4M or that we’d even want him back as our starting PG at his age. We we can’t retain Conley at $4M, I don’t see the Wolves finding a worthwhile starting PG for as little as that amount. Your estimate also fails to include a free agent signing this summer, which is looking highly likely. That free agent will probably be on a multi-year deal for more than $7M. And of course, your scenario assumes we trade NAZ to a team with cap space to absorb his entirely salary without getting player in return. Possible? Yes. But how plausible or sensible would that be.

While conceivable that the Wolves could stay under the second with Rudy, KAT, Ant and Jaden on the roster, it’s dicey. If we take a step back, keeping KAT and Rudy along with Ant and Jaden beyond next season is on the outer edge of plausible. I think TC knows that even as he tries to put everything he can into maximizing the team’s chances of winning next season. If the Wolves end up in the NBA finals, then maybe he’ll find a path to keeping those two while barely staying under the second apron. Of course, even then, he’ll still have to trade NAZ for almost no return salary.

I’m actually OK with what TC is trying to do because I think he’s made sure he has a critical mass of young talent to quickly pivot to a younger team more aligned with our best player and his equally young sidekick. If it were me, I’d skip the run-it-back better experiment and go right to the build around Ant strategy. And that means trading KAT or Rudy this summer.

[FNG]

You might be right about Ant, Lip...I was using Kek's number, but I'm also seeing it could be more. But if Jaden plays well enough next season to warrant a $30 million extension (I love Jaden, but I don't think he has earned that yet), we can start planning the championship parade route for next June right now! Jaden is an interesting case. We all love him here, but I think next year is going to be a critical year for him to show who he is. He may continue to progress and look like the kind of player who deserves a $27 million raise. But he just as easily could stay close to what he is right now...a very good role player who plays excellent defense (although fouling too much and not providing enough rebounding) but generally defers on offense. I hope he makes the leap.

Anyway Lip, there's no question that the basketball world out there is where you are...that the Wolves need to move one of their max contracts, and need to do it soon. I'm keeping my rose-colored glasses on for awhile and exploring ways TC can keep the players I think we need to win a championship. But I get that it is an enormous challenge.

[Lipoli390]

You might be right about Ant, Lip...I was using Kek's number, but I'm also seeing it could be more. But if Jaden plays well enough next season to warrant a $30 million extension (I love Jaden, but I don't think he has earned that yet), we can start planning the championship parade route for next June right now! Jaden is an interesting case. We all love him here, but I think next year is going to be a critical year for him to show who he is. He may continue to progress and look like the kind of player who deserves a $27 million raise. But he just as easily could stay close to what he is right now...a very good role player who plays excellent defense (although fouling too much and not providing enough rebounding) but generally defers on offense. I hope he makes the leap.

Anyway Lip, there's no question that the basketball world out there is where you are...that the Wolves need to move one of their max contracts, and need to do it soon. I'm keeping my rose-colored glasses on for awhile and exploring ways TC can keep the players I think we need to win a championship. But I get that it is an enormous challenge.

FNG - I’d like to borrow your glasses for while if you wouldn’t mind. . Seriously, I think you made a good point about Jaden. Most of us continue to value him based on a combination of his performance to date (stellar defender and nice three-point shooting) and his potential. If he doesn’t continue his improvement trajectory then a contract extension north of $27M won’t happen. The biggest think Jaden needs to do is improve his rebounding. A $27M per year SF/PF has to rebound better than Jaden has been rebounding notwithstanding his stellar defense to justify that level of compensation.

[60WinTim]

The thing is McD will want to sign his extension THIS off-season, along with ANT. We won't get another season under our belts to determine his value.

And agree with FNG -- statistically, McD is nowhere near a 30 mil player right now. I guess we'll see what happens. Maybe all parties will agree to put of the extension until NEXT offseason.

[Coolbreeze44]

Really appreciate all the good input over the last several days on these speculative topics. My condensed view is KAT is going to be moving to a new city, and doing that very soon. I still believe the most natural trade partner is Portland, and that the framework of a deal may already be in place. I keep expecting something to leak but I guess we will know soon enough.

[Coolbreeze44]

The thing is McD will want to sign his extension THIS off-season, along with ANT. We won't get another season under our belts to determine his value.

And agree with FNG -- statistically, McD is nowhere near a 30 mil player right now. I guess we'll see what happens. Maybe all parties will agree to put of the extension until NEXT offseason.

That would be dangerous for the Wolves. I expect his offense to take a major step forward this year, and the price tag will be more next offseason.

[Monster]

The thing is McD will want to sign his extension THIS off-season, along with ANT. We won't get another season under our belts to determine his value.

And agree with FNG -- statistically, McD is nowhere near a 30 mil player right now. I guess we'll see what happens. Maybe all parties will agree to put of the extension until NEXT offseason.

That would be dangerous for the Wolves. I expect his offense to take a major step forward this year, and the price tag will be more next offseason.

Tim Connelly talked about drafting prospects a year early. He might be looking to get McDaneils paid and locked up a year early too. Wasn’t there a quote from Connelly about being aggressive in getting something done with contracts for Edwards and McDaniels?

Tim when you say McDaniels isn’t a 30 million a year player now and I agree but that’s 30 million or so with the cap rising. The mid level jumped nearly 2 million from last year. What will it be next year close to 15 million maybe? Good 2-way starters are gonna be 20 million a year players easily. Could the Wolves end up overpaying McDaniels? Yeah possibly and worth considering but we all know he simply isn’t gonna be cheap. If the team believes in McDaniels why not try and get that extension signed now? You can make a case for waiting to find out if he is real also. Connelly has history of paying tale fed guys a nice salary. My guess is McDaniels and his folks are going to be interested in what Connelly offers.

[Lipoli390]

The thing is McD will want to sign his extension THIS off-season, along with ANT. We won't get another season under our belts to determine his value.

And agree with FNG -- statistically, McD is nowhere near a 30 mil player right now. I guess we'll see what happens. Maybe all parties will agree to put of the extension until NEXT offseason.

That would be dangerous for the Wolves. I expect his offense to take a major step forward this year, and the price tag will be more next offseason.

Tim Connelly talked about drafting prospects a year early. He might be looking to get McDaneils paid and locked up a year early too. Wasn’t there a quote from Connelly about being aggressive in getting something done with contracts for Edwards and McDaniels?

Tim when you say McDaniels isn’t a 30 million a year player now and I agree but that’s 30 million or so with the cap rising. The mid level jumped nearly 2 million from last year. What will it be next year close to 15 million maybe? Good 2-way starters are gonna be 20 million a year players easily. Could the Wolves end up overpaying McDaniels? Yeah possibly and worth considering but we all know he simply isn’t gonna be cheap. If the team believes in McDaniels why not try and get that extension signed now? You can make a case for waiting to find out if he is real also. Connelly has history of paying tale fed guys a nice salary. My guess is McDaniels and his folks are going to be interested in what Connelly offers.

Yes, TC did say they’re going to be aggressive in pursuing an extension with Jaden. The last time TC said they’d be aggressive was in relation to moving up in the second round and turns out he was true to his word. He also referred to Ant and Jaden as “joined at the hip.” So let’s not kid ourselves, Jaden will be re-signed for some amount north of $25M per year. Ant will be getting the max, which is $36M. They’re not going to low-ball the guy who TC said is joined to Ant’s hip. I’m guessing the Wolves will sign Jaden to a deal that starts at $26M and escalates each year by the maximum amount. I could easily see Jaden starting at $28 million.