Jaden’s extension “not close”

[Q-is-here]

I think the question on Jaden is can he take a leap offensively and eventually become a legit #3 or even #2 weapon? If he can, that's close to max territory. What can we discern from last season?

He really took a leap last year in terms of his efficiency, BUT 66% of his 2-pointers were assisted and 99% of his 3's were assisted. His usage barely budged from the year before, staying well below 20%. As a point of comparison, Ant was assisted on 37% of his 2s and 52% of his 3s, meaning he is creating the vast majority of his shot attempts. His usage rate is 30%.

So he has really firmly established himself as an elite wing defender on one end and highly efficient, low usage scorer on the other end. That's a really good role player, but is that worth $30M+ per year?

The question is can he create offense for himself and others with the ball in his hands, similar to the transition Mikal Bridges made upon arriving in Brooklyn? Will we even get a chance to see that given who else is on the roster? Would some other team believe he could make that leap and shove a huge pile of money at him as an RFA?

[Coolbreeze44]

An unsigned Jaden could be a very motivated Jaden. I think the Wolves win either way.

[Sundog]

If Ant makes all nba, and Jaden earns a near max contract, this team is about to be uber expensive over the next couple of years. We’ve been debating which of the max centers to trade away (Rudy or KAT), but they might need to clear both!

[Lipoli390]

I’m with you 100%. I love Jaden as much as the next guy but if we are talking max money for Jaden we need to seriously talk about trading Jaden. You mention Bane as a borderline max guy and I agree and I love Bane. Bane averaged 9 more pts, 1 more rebound (at a less important rebounding position), 2.5 more assists while being a better shooter on higher volume than Mcdaniels.

At the end of the day Mcdaniels is a 12/4/2 guy on limited volume with elite defense. There is 0 reason to give Mcdaniels over 25 million a year this offseason. This offseason the floor was set for money by Herb Jones at 14 million a year for 4 years. I’m comfortable giving Mcdaniels low 20 million this offseason just to lock him up but Mcdaniels needs to show me a ton more on the offensive end to even consider 25+ million let alone the max. If Mcdaniels wants max money the wolves should be calling Portland for a Mcdaniels and Conley swap for lillard. I love mcdaniels but he needs to show a ton more for me to give him that type of money

I think you’re both probably right about what the Wolves should do. But I also think the Wolves are going to sign Jaden to a contract that’s north of $120 million over 4 years. If I had to guess, I’d say he’ll get a contract of at least $160 million over 5 years with a player option on the 5th year. That’s an average of $32 million per year - slightly more than DeJounte Murray just got. One thing we’ve seen is that TC bets on himself. He believed in Rudy and paid a ridiculous king’s random to get him last summer. He believes in Naz and didn’t take any risk of letting Naz end up in free agency. He clearly believes in Jaden to the point of rejecting trade proposals around the League. He referred to Ant and Jaden as “joined a the hip.” All that tells me TC will sign Jaden to a contract based on his vision of what he believes Jaden will become, which will be an amount that substantially exceeds what he’s earned through his production.

Just for reference: a 5 year 160 mil contract would start at 27.6 mil the first year.

Yep. I’ve been predicting that Jaden’s new contract would start at around $27M in its first year (2024-25). But I could see Jaden getting a 5-year $180M contract and I think that would put his first year salary at around $30M.

[KG4Ever]

I listened to Doogie mention $23-24 million a year for Jaden, but I don't think that's realistic. However if Jaden would take something in the $26m to $28 million range now, I'd sign him now. If he wants $30 million or more, I'd let the season play out and show he's become that valuable. If he regresses or stagnates or gets injured, then he's going to cost himself some money.

[Monster]

I think the question on Jaden is can he take a leap offensively and eventually become a legit #3 or even #2 weapon? If he can, that's close to max territory. What can we discern from last season?

He really took a leap last year in terms of his efficiency, BUT 66% of his 2-pointers were assisted and 99% of his 3's were assisted. His usage barely budged from the year before, staying well below 20%. As a point of comparison, Ant was assisted on 37% of his 2s and 52% of his 3s, meaning he is creating the vast majority of his shot attempts. His usage rate is 30%.

So he has really firmly established himself as an elite wing defender on one end and highly efficient, low usage scorer on the other end. That's a really good role player, but is that worth $30M+ per year?

The question is can he create offense for himself and others with the ball in his hands, similar to the transition Mikal Bridges made upon arriving in Brooklyn? Will we even get a chance to see that given who else is on the roster? Would some other team believe he could make that leap and shove a huge pile of money at him as an RFA?

Like you alluded to McDaniels took fewer shots per 36 and scored more points. Why? Near 40% from 3 was a big part of that. How he shoots from 3 is a pretty big deal.

What else is promising about his offensive growth statistically? It’s not a massive jump but he went from 1.4 FTs per 36 to 2.1. His assist also took a similar uptick although the turnovers went up also.

The question is can he one way or another increase the volume of shots taken while keeping some level of efficiency. Some of that depends on the guys around him. Will some of the usage and shots from guys that were here last year allow for McDaniels to have a larger role? Will Conley give more runway for him? Shake instead of Nowell? Maybe even having someone else playing minutes instead of Prince? Can McDaniels limit his fouls more so he can play a few more mpg on average?

I’m a big fan of McDaniels and I think he has legit offensive upside. I think we saw some of that last season. He is far from arriving there. How much the wolves should be willing to pay and how much he should setting for instead of going to FA is an interesting thing to think about. I think considering he is pretty much a good 2 way starter a near 6’10” wing defender that looks to be able to take and make 3’s…those players don’t come cheap especially for a guy that has even turned 23 yet. 25 million a year sounds fine to me especially since the cap is gonna go up again next year when that contract hits and the contract would start lower than 25 million. Should he Wolves be willing to do a contract that averages 30 million a year? That’s fair to question although as Tim has pointed out that contract would start in the high 20’s…although they could just front load it or go straight 30 a year and take a hit earlier than later especially if they decided that they were going to be a lux tax team year 1 anyway.

I’m not too concerned about this although I know it matters. I’m more focused on him taking another step to becoming an even better version of what we saw last year.

[Lipoli390]

I listened to Doogie mention $23-24 million a year for Jaden, but I don't think that's realistic. However if Jaden would take something in the $26m to $28 million range now, I'd sign him now. If he wants $30 million or more, I'd let the season play out and show he's become that valuable. If he regresses or stagnates or gets injured, then he's going to cost himself some money.

I know the line has to be drawn somewhere. But if the difference is a contract that starts Jaden at $28M versus one that starts him at $30, then there’s no point waiting. Either way, Jaden would be overpaid if he doesn’t become the more complete player the Wolves front office obviously believes he can become. Moreover, whether it’s $28M or $30M in 2024-25, Jaden’s contract will still have essentially the same impact on the Wolves financial situation relative to the second apron with Rudy, KAT and Naz on the payroll.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Minnesota already showed its hand by giving Utah even more assets in that ridiculously lopsided legendary trade.

Will Minnesota do it again?

What's the worst case if the Wolves don't pony up now for McDaniels? Needing to match another team's offer to him next summer when he's a RFA? Is it likely to be any more than what he's asking for now? Probably not. In fact, it might be less.

Some teams are simply unwilling to make a legit offer for RFAs because they know his current team will match. Just look at how the Lakers got Reaves back for much less than expected.

[Lipoli390]

Minnesota already showed its hand by giving Utah even more assets in that ridiculously lopsided legendary trade.

Will Minnesota do it again?

What's the worst case if the Wolves don't pony up now for McDaniels? Needing to match another team's offer to him next summer when he's a RFA? Is it likely to be any more than what he's asking for now? Probably not. In fact, it might be less.

Some teams are simply unwilling to make a legit offer for RFAs because they know his current team will match. Just look at how the Lakers got Reaves back for much less than expected.

I agree, Abe. The prudent thing for the Wolves would be waiting until next summer, extending a qualifying offer to make him a RFA, and matching any offer. I just don’t think they’ll do that. TC was actually criticized in Denver for paying too much too soon to players. I think he has a terrific eye for young talent and is very good at building a good team culture, but I question his business acumen as evidenced by his give-away last summer in the Gobert deal.