Ant and the current roster

[FNG]

Mike Rand has an article in today's Strib that talks about how the current roster structure doesn't optimize Ant. His narrative is one that I hear expressed often...that the presence of two big men clogs the middle and harms Ant's ability to get to the basket.

My observation is that actually the opposite is true. Rudy's elite screening at the top of the key combined with KAT's dangerous 3-point presence seems to me to be the ideal situation for Ant. And while we all know the first 20 games of the season were forgettable offensively, I think we saw in the playoffs how Ant performs next to the 2-footers. He averaged almost 32 PPG over the 5-game series!

I get why this is the default narrative. The typical 7-footer operates exclusively near the basket, thereby providing an impediment to a slasher. But KAT is a unicorn and far from a traditional 7-footer. And Rudy is nothing short of elite in setting screens at the top of the key, allowing Ant to operate against a slower big man. What am I missing here? Isn't Ant's performance next to KAT and Rudy what we can expect from him this upcoming season?

This clearly has implications for the move TC will likely have to make before 2024-5 with respect to either KAT or Rudy. If it's Rudy, we lose his screening ability, but we have a center who is far from being a lane clogger. But if it's KAT, TC will have to ensure that he replaces KAT with another 3-point option.

[Sundog]

On the recent interview with Dane Moore, Finch talked about the need to impose more structured spacing on the offense, that both KAT and Rudy are used to doing pretty much whatever they want but that leads to problems for Ant and others. If they learn to play within that structure, Ant can benefit the way you explain in your post FNG.

[60WinTim]

I agree with your assessment, FNG. ANT, KAT, Rudy AND Finch never really had a chance to get everything figured out last season, which was a clusterf*ck, BTW. It's kind of amazing we even made the playoffs with the early struggles against a soft schedule, losing JMac and KAT (Prince, too) for significant time, and then shaking things up with the mid-season trade for Conley. As we reached the all-star break, many of us did not see a path to the playoffs given the difficulty of the remaining schedule. Yet they made it, by the skin of their teeth!

With last season behind them, the players can build upon what they learned last year, including the coaching staff. ANT and McD made great strides last year. Conley and NAW are here from the start. And there are reasons to believe Shake and Tony will strengthen the bench. And everyone knows this is ANT's team. We just need KAT and Rudy to fall in line!

And we still have 3 months left before the start of the season?!?

[Q-is-here]

It comes down to how do you maximize the offense with Ant being the centerpiece. So this isn't just about Ant's individual stats but also how the pressure he puts on a defense leads to open shots and easy baskets for others.

Rudy has two sides to the coin. Yes, there is the screening, but then where and how he positions himself after the screen (or when NOT the screener) is just as important. And what we find is that Ant's inability or unwillingness to get Rudy the ball on his rolls or duck-ins leads to more difficult shot attempts for Ant and Rudy not being fed the ball for what can be easy dunks when placed correctly. We all know Rudy has an all-time type TS% for a big, so if you can get him the ball where he can catch it cleanly, it leads to an even more efficient shot than what Ant can get solely on his own.

KAT also has two sides of the coin that are the exact opposite of Rudy's. He's a terrible screen setter and great shooter. A drive and kick to a popping big is an easy play to make for Ant if the defense collapses. On the other hand, the defense may not have to collapse if the screen is crappy.

I personally think the ideal big next to Ant is a slightly younger version of Al Horford. Elite screen-setter, great defender, and good 3-point shooter that can space the floor. That big doesn't exist on our roster.

[Q-is-here]

I agree with your assessment, FNG. ANT, KAT, Rudy AND Finch never really had a chance to get everything figured out last season, which was a clusterf*ck, BTW. It's kind of amazing we even made the playoffs with the early struggles against a soft schedule, losing JMac and KAT (Prince, too) for significant time, and then shaking things up with the mid-season trade for Conley. As we reached the all-star break, many of us did not see a path to the playoffs given the difficulty of the remaining schedule. Yet they made it, by the skin of their teeth!

With last season behind them, the players can build upon what they learned last year, including the coaching staff. ANT and McD made great strides last year. Conley and NAW are here from the start. And there are reasons to believe Shake and Tony will strengthen the bench. And everyone knows this is ANT's team. We just need KAT and Rudy to fall in line!

And we still have 3 months left before the start of the season?!?

I agree in theory with the roster clusterf*ck issue and needing time to figure things out, but in practice.....not so sure. The Lakers sure as heck didn't have any issues beating our asses in the play in game and getting all the way to the WCF after making a big late-season trade and adding the likes of DLO and Vando to their starting 5. In fact, that "disruption" helped turn their season around!

[FNG]

Yeah, the Lakers really surprised me with their playoff run. But I wouldn't call the play in game "beating our asses"...I'd call it survival! They were 100% healthy, and we were missing Rudy, Jaden and Naz...and still we led by 7 going into the 4th quarter.
But still I get your point...they did a really good job of incorporating their new players into the lineup.

On the other point of the options Ant has after Rudy screens for him. Let's not lose sight of the fact that Jaden shot 42% on corner threes last season and is 40% for his career. He's a really nice option for Ant to find if his man leaves him to double Ant. A wide-open Jaden probably makes over 50% of this corner 3's. Ant is so talented at getting to the basket, he's going to attract a lot more attention this season. I want to see big improvement in his decision making when he is double or tripled teamed...there are some very good 3-point options out there for him, and at least one of them is going to be open.

[Q-is-here]

Yeah, the Lakers really surprised me with their playoff run. But I wouldn't call the play in game "beating our asses"...I'd call it survival! They were 100% healthy, and we were missing Rudy, Jaden and Naz...and still we led by 7 going into the 4th quarter.
But still I get your point...they did a really good job of incorporating their new players into the lineup.

On the other point of the options Ant has after Rudy screens for him. Let's not lose sight of the fact that Jaden shot 42% on corner threes last season and is 40% for his career. He's a really nice option for Ant to find if his man leaves him to double Ant. A wide-open Jaden probably makes over 50% of this corner 3's. Ant is so talented at getting to the basket, he's going to attract a lot more attention this season. I want to see big improvement in his decision making when he is double or tripled teamed...there are some very good 3-point options out there for him, and at least one of them is going to be open.

Right, but if Ant doesn't make Rudy a credible option, then defenders are going to be less likely to come off their man to protect the paint, meaning Rudy's rim rolls are less effective at opening things up for shooters. Plus most teams will play drop against Ant, which theoretically eliminates the need for a low man to come off the corner.

This doesn't mean Ant still can't be effective, but it holds back what could be a really high ceiling for the offense if they can't figure this out. We can't over-rely on Mike Conley and Kyle Anderson to unlock our offense, as those guys can only take us so far. Ant needs to do more to make those around him better.

[Lipoli390]

Yeah, the Lakers really surprised me with their playoff run. But I wouldn't call the play in game "beating our asses"...I'd call it survival! They were 100% healthy, and we were missing Rudy, Jaden and Naz...and still we led by 7 going into the 4th quarter.
But still I get your point...they did a really good job of incorporating their new players into the lineup.

On the other point of the options Ant has after Rudy screens for him. Let's not lose sight of the fact that Jaden shot 42% on corner threes last season and is 40% for his career. He's a really nice option for Ant to find if his man leaves him to double Ant. A wide-open Jaden probably makes over 50% of this corner 3's. Ant is so talented at getting to the basket, he's going to attract a lot more attention this season. I want to see big improvement in his decision making when he is double or tripled teamed...there are some very good 3-point options out there for him, and at least one of them is going to be open.

Right, but if Ant doesn't make Rudy a credible option, then defenders are going to be less likely to come off their man to protect the paint, meaning Rudy's rim rolls are less effective at opening things up for shooters. Plus most teams will play drop against Ant, which theoretically eliminates the need for a low man to come off the corner.

This doesn't mean Ant still can't be effective, but it holds back what could be a really high ceiling for the offense if they can't figure this out. We can't over-rely on Mike Conley and Kyle Anderson to unlock our offense, as those guys can only take us so far. Ant needs to do more to make those around him better.

Spot on, Q. If Ant is truly going to be our #1, which is the only thing that makes sense, then it’s all about optimizing Ant’s fully potential and optimizing other players through Ant. In his Summer League interview with Dane Moore, Finch talked about Ant not having good chemistry with Gobert on the offensive end and the need to get back to taking advantage of the great chemistry Ant has with KAT. If the Wolves are focusing on optimizing the offensive chemistry between Conley and Rudy, they’re barking up the wrong tree, especially over the long term.

I saw a video where someone - I think JJ Redick - commented that Donovan Mitchell averaged only 2 passes to Rudy their last season together in Utah. Apparently, fans complained about how little Donovan passed to Rudy. Of course, since that season we’ve heard that Donovan didn’t like playing with Rudy. I believe Ant averaged around 1.7 passes to Rudy per game. I suspect And had the same issue with Rudy that Donovan had — not trusting Rudy to catch and convert as well as the need to throw perfect precision passes that Rudy can handle. All this relates to Finch’s comment about Ant not having good chemistry with Rudy. Yet, Finch emphasized Ant having really good chemistry with KAT. I saw another video recently where Ant said Porzingis is the best rim protector in the NBA and that Rudy never caused him trouble or something to that effect. Add that to Ant’s comment last season about him being better the smaller the Wolves got. The signals couldn’t be more clear.

All this goes to one of the many reasons why the Gobert trade was bad - apart from how much we gave up to get him. And it indicates the need to move on from Rudy - even before we consider moving on from KAT. Rudy just doesn’t fit well with Ant and that fit issue is more important than Rudy’s poor (or at least questionable) fit with KAT. Rudy brings significant strengths to the table - rebounding, pick-setting and paint defense. As it turns out, his presence didn’t improve our rebounding and substantially hurt our offense last season. Notwithstanding Rudy’s considerable strengths, if he meshes poorly with Ant as he did last season and as he did the season before with Donovan Mitchell, then the Wolves need to move on from him sooner rather than later for that reason alone apart from the fact that Rudy is 10 years older than Ant, detrimental to spacing, probably not a good fit with KAT and a huge hit to the team’s payroll as the Wolves head towards the second apron cliff on year from now.

Sorry to come back to Rudy, but I’m no longer talking about how horrific the trade was as a gross overpay. That’s water under the bridge. I’m focused on moving forward. As I learn more and look ahead I see Rudy more and more as an anchor around this team’s development, ultimately impeding the team’s ability to become a championship contender. One more year with Rudy and KAT to fully test the experiment is counterproductive in my view because even if those two can fit well together, Rudy doesn’t fit well with Ant and that means he doesn’t fit with developing this team for title contention.

[Sundog]

I don’t think I agree that Rudy’s an anchor… According to Jake Payting at Howls and Growls, Ant’s shooting percentage goes way up when Rudy’s on the floor and is pretty middling when he’s not. It may not look as pretty as one might want, but Rudy can definitely be a weapon.

[Q-is-here]

I don’t think I agree that Rudy’s an anchor… According to Jake Payting at Howls and Growls, Ant’s shooting percentage goes way up when Rudy’s on the floor and is pretty middling when he’s not. It may not look as pretty as one might want, but Rudy can definitely be a weapon.

But it's not just about Ant's individual stats when he plays with Rudy at this point. The question is the overall team offensive efficiency and whether Rudy is holding that back to some degree (and possibly due to no fault of his own).