Betting the Over/Under around the league

[KG4Ever]

Midwest

Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5 wins): Over (53.1%)
Oklahoma City Thunder (44.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
Utah Jazz (35.5 wins): Over (55.5%)
Portland Trail Blazers (28.5 wins): Under (50.9%)

Southwest

Memphis Grizzlies (46.5 wins): Under (52.1%)
New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Under (60.8%)
Dallas Mavericks (44.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
Houston Rockets (31.5 wins): Over (59.2%)
San Antonio Spurs (28.5 wins): Over (54.4%)

Pacific

Phoenix Suns (52.5 wins): Under (52.6%)
Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (52.7%)
Los Angeles Lakers (47.5 wins): Over (57.2%)
Los Angeles Clippers (46.5 wins): Under (64.6%)
Sacramento Kings (44.5 wins): Over (71.3%)

Atlantic
Boston (55.5 wins)
Philly 76ers (48.5 wins)
NY Knicks (45.5 wins)
Brooklyn Nets (37.5 wins)
Toronto Raptors (36.5 wins)

Southeast

Miami Heat (46.5 wins): Under (59.0%)
Atlanta Hawks (42.5 wins): Under (61.1%)
Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): Over (60.7%)
Charlotte Hornets (31.5 wins): Under (65.8%)
Washington Wizards (24.5 wins): Over (53.3%)

Central

Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (76.9%)
Cleveland Cavaliers (50.5 wins): Under (52.0%)
Indiana Pacers (38.5 wins): Over (64.1%)
Chicago Bulls (37.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
Detroit Pistons (27.5 wins): Over (53.8%)

Source: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/

[KG4Ever]

I thought it might be fun to have a little friendly board prognosticating contest on the over/under around the league (based on the odds posted above).

Proposal One: Lets say we each have 100K to spend and we must make at least five bets (but no more than ten) and you can allocate your 100K among your 5-10 bets however you want, but no more than 25% on any one bet. So you can only bet 25K on the Wolves.
e.g.
Wolves over: 25K
Warriors under: 20K
Lakers under: 20K
Mavs under 15K
Knicks over 10K
Atlanta over 10K


Proposal Two: You choose the over/under for all the teams but you rank based on your confidence in your prediction. e.g.
1. Wolves over
2. Mavs under
3. Philly under
4. Memphis under 
5. Atlanta over
6. Knicks over
...etc., etc....
30. Toronto over

So if you get the 1st one right (in my example if Wolves win, you get 30 points) and if you get the 5th one right you get 26 points and if you get the 30th one right you get 1 point. The one with the most points total wins.

[KG4Ever]

Anyone interested in one of the two ideas above, let me know which one you prefer.

[FNG]

This looks like fun, KG. I'm swamped this week so haven't had time to think about this much, but I'm in! I prefer option 1, but I could do either if there's interest.. We all know Lip is going to win the wins prediction contest, so it would be fun to have another game to possibly win!

[KG4Ever]

I'm thinking of betting the over on the Wolves this season. I have never done this before. Anyone have experience on betting over/under or know how to interpret the odds. Since I have heard of Draft Kings and Fan Duel, I am leaning towards using one of them. Any recommendations of which bookie to use? Here are links to bookies and odds: https://www.thelines.com/odds/nba/win-totals/

Both DK and FD set the over/under at 44.5. However, DK lists the over at -115 and FD lists the over at -104. Not sure why the discrepancy. Does it mean it costs either 115 or 104 to win 100? So house gets 15% or 4%. So FD seems like better option or am I missing something? I also see with FD that supposedly you get a 3 free month trial to League Pass if you sign up with at least $10.

[KG4Ever]

Here are my over/under rankings based on odds posted above and confidence level:
1. Minn (Over): How could I not start off with the Wolves
2. Dall (Under): Same odds as the Wolves. Are you kidding me?
3. Atlanta (Over): Too much talent for Quinn Snyder to not get more out of the Young/Murray tandem
4. Detroit (Under)
5. Portland (Under)
6. Boston (Over): Best lineup on paper (Sorry Wolves) and so deep.
7. Toronto (Over)
8. Washington (Under)
9. Clippers (Under)
10. Utah (Under)
11. New Orleans (Under)
12. Phoenix (Under)
13. Golden State (Under)
14. Houston (Over)
15. Denver (Under)
16. Miami (Over)
17. Spurs (Over)
18. Orlando (Under)
19. Memphis (Under)
20. Cleveland (Under)
21. Philly (Under)
22. Indy (Under)
23. Knicks (Over)
24. Sacramento (Over)
25. Lakers (Under)
26. OKC(Over)
27. Milwaukee (Over)
28. Nets (Over)
29. Charlotte (Over)
30. Chicago (Over)

My 100K Bets are as follows: 25 K on MN OVER, 20K on Dall Under, 20K on Atl Over, 5K on Det Under, 5K on Port Under, 5K on UT Under, 5K on Wash Under, 5K on LAC Under, 5K on Tor Over and 5K on Bos Over.
30.

[FNG]

Not many takers, KG, but I'll give it a shot:

Wolves: Over 25K
Indy: Over 25K
Sacramento: Under 15K
Miami: Over 15K
Denver: Under 20K

[Leado01]

I'll be placing this bet tomorrow night!!

(Not this bet... but some form of NBA futures).

Wolves $25k Over
Boston $25k Over
Dallas (not good) $20k Under
Sacramento $15k Under
Lakers $15k Under (they won't even play until February)

[FNG]

Not many takers, KG, but I'll give it a shot:

Wolves: Over 25K
Indy: Over 25K
Sacramento: Under 15K
Miami: Over 15K
Denver: Under 20K

I'm going to amend my entry:

Wolves over:25K
Indy over: 15K
Denver under: 15K
Sac under: 15K
Miami over: 15K
Memphis under: 15K

[KG4Ever]

I'm amending my bet:

OK, I think FNG is onto something with the injury news in Memphis, so I am changing my 100K bet as follows: 25K on MN over, 15K on Dall under, 15K on Memphis under, 15K on Atl Over, 5K on Bos over, 5K on Det under, 5k on Port Under, 5K on UT under, 5K on Tor Over and 5K on Wash under.

Personal Note: I went to sign up for FanDuel this morning to bet big money on the Wolves on the over. However, when I went to sign up, I realized as a California resident I can't bet on sports books and so my path to untold riches based on my bet on the Wolves Over and my bet on the Wolves being the Western Conference champions will just become a "what if". I think it's still illegal to bet if you are a Minnesota resident, so I'm sure there other would be Wolves bettors who are denied riches based on their state's archaic laws.