AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 12:42 pm
The Boston Celtics have been in the ECF in 5 of the past 7 seasons.
And they're trying to get over the proverbial hump to win a championship.
_________
The Timberwolves, in a smaller market, are just hoping to get out of the 1st round for the 2nd time in 35 years. They do not have realistic title aspirations at this time. Nor do they need to make the conference finals or finals to have a successful season(s).
This is all why I'm very confident that big pieces will be moved sooner than later, e.g., Towns.
With Naz and Garza on the bench, it seems to me that the things Rudy does well is MUCH harder to replace than the things KAT does well.
We'll have to see what happens though....it will be a good problem to have if we actually get on a roll this season and win a playoff series. Would they still pull the trigger on something? What if we won two playoff series? May be at that point ownership is willing to pony up.
But if it's no playoffs or another first round exit, someone is getting moved and the most likely candidate is KAT.
I agree that another first round exit will likely result in the Wolves moving a core player next off season. I actually think anything short of making the Western Conference finals will likely have that result. I’m fairly certain it will be Rudy or KAT, although it could be Naz or Jaden. They’ll need to make the deal before exceeding the second apron so they can take back less salary than they send out.
As between KAT and Rudy, I think it’s more likely they move Rudy. I love Naz and Luka, but the talent/productivity gap between them and KAT is huge. It’s not that hard to find and sign a defensive big. The big doesn’t have to be as good defensively as Rudy, especially if he can at least hit shots from more than a foot from the basket. Rudy’s net impact (offense and defense) can be replaced for far less money and keep the Wolves below the 2nd apron and still competitive. If Edwards reaches his full potential, we’ll have two great defenders in the starting lineup (Edwards and Jaden). The Bulls did really well with a two great wing defenders (MJ and Pippen) and Luke Longley at center. Conley is a solid defender. Given the scoring punch from KAT and Ant, the Wolves can focus on eventually replacing Conley with a defensive PG.
Speaking of MJ’s Bulls, I’ve always thought the right mix for the Wolves with KAT would be a mobile defensive PF who is also a really good rebounder like Rodman or Horace Grant. TC made the right move pairing Jokic with Aaron Gordon. TC took leave of his senses when he bet the farm on Gobert. But he still find the right PF via trade or free agency to pair with KAT and two elite defensive wings provided the team has the transactional flexibility they won’t have if they exceed the second apron. TC isn’t going to trade KAT. Edwards loves KAT. And TC wants players who are good people and want to be here. When you have two all-stars in their prime or entering their prime (KAT and Ant), you build around them and that means finding players who fit with them. That’s what TC did in Denver and that’s likely what he’ll do here after his miscalculated risk with Rudy. Jaden is a perfect fit with our two all-stars. NAW, Slo Mo and Milton are also very good fits as rotation players off the bench. Rudy is very expendable in my view.
AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Mon Oct 16, 2023 12:42 pm
The Boston Celtics have been in the ECF in 5 of the past 7 seasons.
And they're trying to get over the proverbial hump to win a championship.
_________
The Timberwolves, in a smaller market, are just hoping to get out of the 1st round for the 2nd time in 35 years. They do not have realistic title aspirations at this time. Nor do they need to make the conference finals or finals to have a successful season(s).
This is all why I'm very confident that big pieces will be moved sooner than later, e.g., Towns.
With Naz and Garza on the bench, it seems to me that the things Rudy does well is MUCH harder to replace than the things KAT does well.
We'll have to see what happens though....it will be a good problem to have if we actually get on a roll this season and win a playoff series. Would they still pull the trigger on something? What if we won two playoff series? May be at that point ownership is willing to pony up.
But if it's no playoffs or another first round exit, someone is getting moved and the most likely candidate is KAT.
I agree that another first round exit will likely result in the Wolves moving a core player next off season. I actually think anything short of making the Western Conference finals will likely have that result. I’m fairly certain it will be Rudy or KAT, although it could be Naz or Jaden. They’ll need to make the deal before exceeding the second apron so they can take back less salary than they send out.
As between KAT and Rudy, I think it’s more likely they move Rudy. I love Naz and Luka, but the talent/productivity gap between them and KAT is huge. It’s not that hard to find and sign a defensive big. The big doesn’t have to be as good defensively as Rudy, especially if he can at least hit shots from more than a foot from the basket. Rudy’s net impact (offense and defense) can be replaced for far less money and keep the Wolves below the 2nd apron and still competitive. If Edwards reaches his full potential, we’ll have two great defenders in the starting lineup (Edwards and Jaden). The Bulls did really well with a two great wing defenders (MJ and Pippen) and Luke Longley at center. Conley is a solid defender. Given the scoring punch from KAT and Ant, the Wolves can focus on eventually replacing Conley with a defensive PG.
Speaking of MJ’s Bulls, I’ve always thought the right mix for the Wolves with KAT would be a mobile defensive PF who is also a really good rebounder like Rodman or Horace Grant. TC made the right move pairing Jokic with Aaron Gordon. TC took leave of his senses when he bet the farm on Gobert. But he still find the right PF via trade or free agency to pair with KAT and two elite defensive wings provided the team has the transactional flexibility they won’t have if they exceed the second apron. TC isn’t going to trade KAT. Edwards loves KAT. And TC wants players who are good people and want to be here. When you have two all-stars in their prime or entering their prime (KAT and Ant), you build around them and that means finding players who fit with them. That’s what TC did in Denver and that’s likely what he’ll do here after his miscalculated risk with Rudy. Jaden is a perfect fit with our two all-stars. NAW, Slo Mo and Milton are also very good fits as rotation players off the bench. Rudy is very expendable in my view.
All this is true…the thing is that Towns would likely bring way more in a trade than any of the other bigs. Q points out Naz and Garza do some of what Towns does (Garza might be a possible Naz replacement as that scoring big) are also significantly younger than Towns by a few years. By moving Towns they could actually get younger. He turns 28 in a few days and has some recent injury issues so that’s something to contemplate.
I’m not in a hurry to move Towns but I don’t think him staying is as certain as you laid out. I can only imagine how frustrated some people might be in a few months if Connelly moved a bunch of assets for a soon to be 29 year old very good player with injury issues. I think low key Naz is a somewhat important player for this franchise if he continues to improve.
I think Wolves will be a second apron team until Rudy's contract expires or is reworked to fit under apron. Enjoy the Big Four!
Rudy has a player option in 2025-6, so I assume he could decline it and the Wolves give him a new contract spread over 4 or 5 years by dropping his average salary way down to fit under the second apron. So a year (2024-25) under the second apron is no big deal if Wolves are viewed as title contenders by TC and the ownership.
"Franchises that exceed the tax threshold by more than $17.5 million trigger “second apron” restrictions, all new with the current agreement. They will forfeit their mid-level exception entirely. Beginning in 2024-25, they will not be able to send out players in sign-and-trade deals and cannot use cash in trades."
It's about more than just money. Teams like the Minnesota are going to try very hard to avoid the 2nd apron... especially if it's not for a title run or to keep its franchise player (see a team like Milwaukee).
There are a lot of signs pointing to Towns leaving Minnesota sooner than later. He just needs to reclaim some of his value/reputation first to make a trade more likely/favorable.
AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 9:03 pm"Franchises that exceed the tax threshold by more than $17.5 million trigger “second apron” restrictions, all new with the current agreement. They will forfeit their mid-level exception entirely. Beginning in 2024-25, they will not be able to send out players in sign-and-trade deals and cannot use cash in trades."
It's about more than just money. Teams like the Minnesota are going to try very hard to avoid the 2nd apron... especially if it's not for a title run or to keep its franchise player (see a team like Milwaukee).
There are a lot of signs pointing to Towns leaving Minnesota sooner than later. He just needs to reclaim some of his value/reputation first to make a trade more likely/favorable.
Lots of signs? Could you name a few as I'm not convinced.
AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 9:03 pm"Franchises that exceed the tax threshold by more than $17.5 million trigger “second apron” restrictions, all new with the current agreement. They will forfeit their mid-level exception entirely. Beginning in 2024-25, they will not be able to send out players in sign-and-trade deals and cannot use cash in trades."
It's about more than just money. Teams like the Minnesota are going to try very hard to avoid the 2nd apron... especially if it's not for a title run or to keep its franchise player (see a team like Milwaukee).
There are a lot of signs pointing to Towns leaving Minnesota sooner than later. He just needs to reclaim some of his value/reputation first to make a trade more likely/favorable.
Abe - I was with you until “there are lots of signs…”. I don’t think I’ve seen one sign, much less “lots”.
A big thing is who is going to be owning this team next year and are they willing to pay that much for the team not even accounting for the roster punishments.
There has been more and more rumors that Lore and Arod do not have the funds to buy the team and there he a legit chance Taylor will still be majority owner next year
kekgeek wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 11:49 pm
A big thing is who is going to be owning this team next year and are they willing to pay that much for the team not even accounting for the roster punishments.
There has been more and more rumors that Lore and Arod do not have the funds to buy the team and there he a legit chance Taylor will still be majority owner next year
ARod maybe, but Lore is a multibillionaire like Glen, and he's well connected too so I doubt he'd have any problem rounding up the funds. Given Glen's age and ARod's competitiveness, I think they are fine with at least a year under the second apron if they feel the team is a contender. They are also smart businessman who I'm sure know that team success will help build franchise value. I'm sure before they signed off on the Rudy deal, they expected KAT and Rudy tandem to be a several year endeavor. I know some feel a KAT or Rudy trade is inevitable, but I am not one of them.
kekgeek wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 11:49 pm
A big thing is who is going to be owning this team next year and are they willing to pay that much for the team not even accounting for the roster punishments.
There has been more and more rumors that Lore and Arod do not have the funds to buy the team and there he a legit chance Taylor will still be majority owner next year
ARod maybe, but Lore is a multibillionaire like Glen, and he's well connected too so I doubt he'd have any problem rounding up the funds. Given Glen's age and ARod's competitiveness, I think they are fine with at least a year under the second apron if they feel the team is a contender. They are also smart businessman who I'm sure know that team success will help build franchise value. I'm sure before they signed off on the Rudy deal, they expected KAT and Rudy tandem to be a several year endeavor. I know some feel a KAT or Rudy trade is inevitable, but I am not one of them.
Yeah, Lore has a reported net worth of $4 Billion, which eclipses Taylor's $2.9 Billion. He also appears to be much more of a riverboat gambler than Glen, so I think he will be both more willing and more able to dig into his pockets to pay a very punitive lux tax...IF he thinks he has a team that can win a championship. ARod is also a very wealthy man at $450 million, but my guess is he will not be as willing to cough up for the lux tax. They may have to come up with a creative approach...perhaps one where Lore covers the lux tax in exchange for increasing his percentage of ownership.
kekgeek wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 11:49 pm
A big thing is who is going to be owning this team next year and are they willing to pay that much for the team not even accounting for the roster punishments.
There has been more and more rumors that Lore and Arod do not have the funds to buy the team and there he a legit chance Taylor will still be majority owner next year
ARod maybe, but Lore is a multibillionaire like Glen, and he's well connected too so I doubt he'd have any problem rounding up the funds. Given Glen's age and ARod's competitiveness, I think they are fine with at least a year under the second apron if they feel the team is a contender. They are also smart businessman who I'm sure know that team success will help build franchise value. I'm sure before they signed off on the Rudy deal, they expected KAT and Rudy tandem to be a several year endeavor. I know some feel a KAT or Rudy trade is inevitable, but I am not one of them.
Yeah, Lore has a reported net worth of $4 Billion, which eclipses Taylor's $2.9 Billion. He also appears to be much more of a riverboat gambler than Glen, so I think he will be both more willing and more able to dig into his pockets to pay a very punitive lux tax...IF he thinks he has a team that can win a championship. ARod is also a very wealthy man at $450 million, but my guess is he will not be as willing to cough up for the lux tax. They may have to come up with a creative approach...perhaps one where Lore covers the lux tax in exchange for increasing his percentage of ownership.
I am just saying Doogie (who is an idiot) was reporting that they are really struggling to get the funds and they are not on track for the deadline in December (an extension could be given). Then Kyle Tiege said yesterday that be has been hearing whispers of the same thing. Now this is not Jon K or Dane Moore reporting these things so I’m not in a panic but it is something to monitor
