Lip was right

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Q-is-here
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Lip was right

Post by Q-is-here »

You can't build a contender with Rudy Gobert as your starting Center. I'm not sure this is even controversial on this board, but I'll speak for myself in thinking that it was possible. I've seen enough - it's not. He can easily be game-planned for in a playoff or Finals series as long as the opposing team has the right personnel.

The problem is that whenever you have Rudy on the floor and an opposing team goes small with pace and space, the best way to counter that in theory is to punish the other team's lack of size. And therein lies the trap. Rudy's poor hands and inability to make shots beyond 1 foot of the rim make him an extremely unreliable target in the paint. And if worse comes to worse, just foul him and there is a decent chance he misses one or both free throws.

What Rudy brings defensively is amazing, but it creates a bit of a mirage for some fans that we can ride our defense into a deep playoff run. I don't think we can. We can may be win one or two series at best if we get the right matchups.

While that might seem like a depressing admission on my part, the good news is Rudy has helped lift the floor of this team and if you take a long view, guys like Ant and McDaniels are getting invaluable experience playing winning basketball and getting high-pressure exposure while still young in their careers. That will pay dividends when we pivot away from Rudy some day and surround Ant with more shooters.
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thedoper
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Re: Lip was right

Post by thedoper »

I think the NBA has shown you can win with all sorts of mixes of players as long as you got the most high end talent. We will never be an actual contender until Ant is always the best player on the floor. I can see Rudy helping us get there if that happens sooner than later. As you pointed out its about matchups, sometimes Rudy will give us a huge advantage based on the other team, sometimes not as much when there are elite shooters on the other team. But either way, he needs to be a complimentary piece. I dont think that automatically eliminates us from being a contender. All teams have matchup issues (except maybe Denver) and it has to break right for them too. In my mind if we can win one playoff series were moving in the right direction. If we win 2 were in the WCF and that would make us a contender of sorts.
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60WinTim
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Re: Lip was right

Post by 60WinTim »

Hangover after a long night of drinking, Q? ;)

You certainly could be right. But, I think I need to see it not work before assuming it will not work.

Of course, the upcoming financial constraints may yet force the Wolves to pivot away from somebody. They'll at least have more than a season's worth of trial and data with Rudy and others to help them steer through those choppy waters...
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FNG
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Re: Lip was right

Post by FNG »

I'm with Tim...curious to see how this plays out. The jury is still out in my opinion. But I will say this: when a team wins 7 games in a row against some tough competition and finally loses on the back end of a back to back, there currently seems to be more evidence than not that this lineup could be very effective. I also agree with doper that we need Ant to be the best player on the floor night in and night out to truly be a contender. I think we can count on Rudy being a constant dominant force on defense, and we can count on KAT being the best Robin on the floor most nights (21/9/2 is all I need from our second fiddle). But a championship is dependent upon Ant becoming a consistent Batman. He has the potential, but the last three games have shown us that he is far from being the consistent force that we need him to be.
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Sundog
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Re: Lip was right

Post by Sundog »

Good lord… we’re less than a dozen games into the best start in decades. What in the actual fuck?
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KG4Ever
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Re: Lip was right

Post by KG4Ever »

Ha! Nobody thought Denver would win a title with a fat unathletic Serbian at center. But for better or worse, we got Rudy and we will have to ride that horse for now. I'm going to enjoy the ride.
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FNG
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Re: Lip was right

Post by FNG »

Sundog wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 12:30 pm Good lord… we’re less than a dozen games into the best start in decades. What in the actual fuck?
[/quote

Lower your voice a littlesundog…Q’s a bit hungover this morning after a big friday night.

The wolves are on a 60 win pace through the first 1/7 of the season, with over half of their wins against teams in the championship discussion. But still, I think most of us are not ready to pronounce the gobert experiment a success. Similarly, it’s premature to label it a failure after such a hot start. That said, I’m saving 2 places on the bandwagon for Lip and Q…they’re always welcome to join us!
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Q-is-here
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Re: Lip was right

Post by Q-is-here »

#1 - I'm not calling the trade for Rudy Gobert a failure or a success - it's a path we chose, but I think Lip is right in saying we could have gone down a different path. I believe he's a bridge that lifts the floor of this team as Ant and Jaden reach their prime years. Like I said, it's great to see young guys on the Wolves play on a winning team for once.

#2 - We are 19th in Offensive Rating this year and we were 23rd last year, in both cases with Rudy playing the 3rd most minutes on the team. Not good enough and Rudy is one of the reasons why. And wait until we get into the vice grip of a playoff series. Rudy isn't going to grow better hands between now and then and you better believe that good teams will bait us to try to force feed the ball to Rudy in the paint. They would LOVE us to do that versus seeing Ant get in the lane all night or watching KAT go off.

#3 - I consider winning a playoff series this season a decent success. I won't be ecstatic, but I'll be satisfied. If we win two, that will get me ecstatic. I think getting to the Western Conference Finals or Finals is unrealistic no matter what our regular season record is.

#4 - I agree with others that Ant needs to be the best player on the floor almost every night. He's not right now. The "Rudy bridge" enables this team to play high level ball while Ant and Jaden continue to get better.
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Wolvesfan21
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Re: Lip was right

Post by Wolvesfan21 »

With Utah they had other then Rudy mostly crap defenders. Many point to him for not being able to guard the entire other team. But defense is all 5 guys playing hard and elite. You can't just have one guy do it all. As we've seen with the Wolves so far for the most part. Defense does win and it can translate into the playoffs. That is if the entire team continues to play at or above their current level.

I'd actually argue that the playoffs are more half court and more physical as well (they really are). Which only plays into the Wolves hands. Sure if you got five great shooters and they get hot, maybe that does win out. But then you have to stop the Wolves on offense too, and rebound. Good luck outrebounding both KAT and Rudy with 6-6 guys. We can crash the offensive boards as well (take a risk a bit to get it and not lose in transition). Rebounding is huge in the game but not often talked about or glamorized.

I actually like the Wolves chances against a smaller lineup over 7 games. It'll be hard for teams to get and stay that hot to outshoot the Wolves hopefully elite defense (knock on wood it continues and still improves). Rebounding I think will be the key.
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Wolvesfan21
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Re: Lip was right

Post by Wolvesfan21 »

Q-is-here wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 2:17 pm

#4 - I agree with others that Ant needs to be the best player on the floor almost every night. He's not right now. The "Rudy bridge" enables this team to play high level ball while Ant and Jaden continue to get better.
I think the success/failure will have more to do with Ant then anything or anyone else. I know for the most part what other guys can do. If he continues to be a huge playmaker rather then forcing up tough shots that will make the Wolves offense top 10 I think by the end of the season. You get to a top 10 offense and number 1 or at least top 5 defense and you will be a contender.

So I love that Ant is expanding his playmaking. It's the biggest thing I see to the success of the Wolves. It will also open up his offense at times too. If he proves he can pass well out of doubles and crowds like he has shown, then teams simply have to pick their poison. Lose by Ant passing or lose by him scoring.
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