So Timberwolves' opponents are shooting only 32.3% on three pointers after the 76ers shot 21.9% last night. That's good for 2nd best in the league. And even though they are very long, it still seems an unlikely total for a team with two 7 footers.
Should we expect regression to the mean (36.2%)? Or, are the Timberwolves built or designed to defend the three better than most other teams?
Three Point Progression... or Regression coming?
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AbeVigodaLive
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Jester1534
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Re: Three Point Progression... or Regression coming?
I would assume it’s because they can close out harder than most teams on 3pt line because they know they have Giant to protect the rim at all times. I think we have enough of sample size now that defense is for real.AbeVigodaLive wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2023 9:59 am So Timberwolves' opponents are shooting only 32.3% on three pointers after the 76ers shot 21.9% last night. That's good for 2nd best in the league. And even though they are very long, it still seems an unlikely total for a team with two 7 footers.
Should we expect regression to the mean (36.2%)? Or, are the Timberwolves built or designed to defend the three better than most other teams?
Re: Three Point Progression... or Regression coming?
Good question, and I'd say the answer is a little bit of both. Do I think our 3-point percentage against will be this good at the end of the year? Probably not. But I would wager we will be in the top 3, and that's significant (right now we trail only the Pels).
And I do think we are built to defend the 3-point line. Jim Pete hinted at it last game when he said Bite Bite might be as good as any PG in the league at closing out. He said it right after our 36 year old PG doubled Maxey to take away his drive, and then immediately jumped out to defend Melton at the line...he missed his shot. Obviously Jaden and NAW are superb at pressuring the 3-point shot, and Ant has his moments too when he's focused. Rudy's rim protecting presence allows our wings to be a little more aggressive in defending the 3-point line, and surprisingly, KAT and Rudy have both had moments where their length has been a factor in a missed 3-pointer. We still struggle a bit when Rudy has to guard a center with range (Morris Sr. last game), but other than that, I really like the way our defense is set up.
And I do think we are built to defend the 3-point line. Jim Pete hinted at it last game when he said Bite Bite might be as good as any PG in the league at closing out. He said it right after our 36 year old PG doubled Maxey to take away his drive, and then immediately jumped out to defend Melton at the line...he missed his shot. Obviously Jaden and NAW are superb at pressuring the 3-point shot, and Ant has his moments too when he's focused. Rudy's rim protecting presence allows our wings to be a little more aggressive in defending the 3-point line, and surprisingly, KAT and Rudy have both had moments where their length has been a factor in a missed 3-pointer. We still struggle a bit when Rudy has to guard a center with range (Morris Sr. last game), but other than that, I really like the way our defense is set up.
Re: Three Point Progression... or Regression coming?
Apropos to this discussion, NBA University posted yesterday AMS stats (average moving stats). Jaden and NAW rank 7th and 6th respectively in the Association for players averaging 20MPG or more. for average moving speed on defense (Okogie ranks second behind Josh Green). LeBron measures as the slowest defender in the league, followed by Luka and (surprisingly) Tatum, Embiid and Jokic. He's only played one minute this season, but Wendell Moore ranks as the fastest defender in the entire league at 7.16 MPH. The most surprising stat to me for the Wolves was that Ant ranked last among Wolves rotation players in defensive AMS...slightly behind SloMo!
Takeaway? Closing quickly to your defender is one of the keys to limiting 3-pointers, and the Wolves have two top 10 speedsters. Also, Gobert's long strides give him a fairly decent AMS also...a 7'1" guy coming at you quickly doesn't lead to a comfortable 3-point shot. So the Wolves are both long and quick.
Takeaway? Closing quickly to your defender is one of the keys to limiting 3-pointers, and the Wolves have two top 10 speedsters. Also, Gobert's long strides give him a fairly decent AMS also...a 7'1" guy coming at you quickly doesn't lead to a comfortable 3-point shot. So the Wolves are both long and quick.