Lip. there's no question that we don't score as many points as most of the teams in the league...that's a fact. But I think where you and I disagree is that I am perhaps more of a fan of a stingy defense than you are. The ultimate goal of a team is to score more points than the opponent, but there are two ways to do it: you can outscore an opponent with a productive offense (hello Indiana), or you can outscore an opponent with a stifling defense (hello Minnesota). The interesting thing about the Wolves is that they do it both ways depending on who is on the court. The starters outscore the opponent through defense, and the reserves narrowly outscore the opponent through offense. The starters defend the perimeter and the rim so well that our opponent very often has to use the entire 24 seconds before getting a shot off...this results in fewer offensive possessions for our offense, and accordingly, fewer points scored despite a very good EFG%. Unfortunately our starters' offense also contributes to the low PPG. Even though our starters are elite shooters (again, the stats don't lie here), the combination of excessive turnovers and incessant dribbling by Ant also negatively impact our PPG.Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:49 amIf that stat tells us our offensive firepower off the bench is adequate, then our starting lineup must be woefully lacking in offensive firepower because this Wolves team has the 5th fewest points per game in the NBA. We’re still a good team with our League-leading defense. But we’re not a championship contender with that sort of relative offensive production. Maybe it’s the bench, maybe it’s the starting lineup, or maybe it’s a combination of the two. In any case, it’s really bad.FNG wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:37 am Thanks for teeing up this interesting thread, Carlos.
I agree that +/- is probably the best way to evaluate a bench...you want them to at least maintain leads (or not increase deficits) while they are in there, and our positive .5 meets that goal. We do lag Boston and OkC though.
I don't know that bench PPG is the most meaningful stat because of the difference in MPG. I would compare points per minute instead. And it's not surprising that the Clippers lead with future HOFer Westbrook coming off the bench (but it's also not surprising that the Clippers are second to last in +/- given Russ's subpar defense.
The Wolves then rank second to the Clippers in points per minute at 1.93...doesn't that tell us that our offensive firepower off the bench is just fine?
Our reserves are a different story, and it has a lot to do with Naz Reid. He is a very productive scorer, and is the main reason our reserves average more points per minute than any contender other than the Clippers. But he's also easy to target on defense. Fortunately Naz's improving offensive game combined with a couple good defenders off the bench (SloMo and NAW) allow our bench to still slightly outscore our opponent, and that has been a big factor in our great start this year.
But the hole in my enthusiastic argument is there is one team out there that has both a high-scoring offense and a very good defense...the Boston Celtics. They are 4th in the league both in points scored and fewest points given up, and that is why they are have the best record in the Association right now. I don't like our chances in and NBA finals against a balanced team like the Celtics. But all things considered, I prefer a dominant defensive team (that can also shoot ) over a team that is more mediocre on defense. And that's why the Wolves are still my pick to come out of the West this season, barring a significant injury.
