NBA Team Status at the Break

[Lipoli390]

It’s around this point in the season when we can reliably start to differentiate contenders pretenders. Another way to view this is by analogy to cream, which rises to the top over time. That’s what happens in the NBA. The true championship contenders are the teams playing their best basketball relative to the rest of the League at around this part of the season.

In stead of using the cream metaphor, I’ll use a boat analogy. Looking at the last 10 games, I see teams grouped into four different kinds of boats: Speed boats, floating boats, leaky boats still floating and sinking boats.

Speed Boats: (Teams cruising along and and accelerating down the stretch as potential championship contenders)
1. Clippers: 9-1 (Had my doubts but Harden has been effectively integrated into what is nowthe most talented West team)
2. Knicks: 9-1 (Rolling even after losing Mitchell Robinson. Great defense. Acquired Anuoby and still have tons of assets)
3. Cavs: 9-1 (I’m surprised, but record speaks for itself)
4. Suns: 7-3 (Been wondering about them but they’re almost firing on all cylinders. If they stay healthy, they’re dangerous)
5. Nuggets: 7-3 (Still not at their best but they’re defending champs and have gutted out a 7-3 record past 10 games)
6. OKC: 7-3 (Super talented young team with great offense. Still probably too young to make it to the finals)
7. Celtics: 7-3 (Best team in East all season. Celtics/Knicks matchup in East Finals would be fun)

Floating Boats: (Teams floating fairly comfortably; candidates for 1st round upsets but not more)
Kings: 6-4
Lakers: 6-4

Leaky Boats (Teams staying afloat but with leaks that could sink them in the playoffs)
Wolves 5-5 (This record is even more troubling when you consider who the Wolves lost to in this stretch)
Pelicans: 5-5
Warriors: 5-5
Bucks 5-5
Pacers, Magic, Bulls, Hawks: 5-5

Sinking Boats:
All the others, including the Sixers unless Embiid comes back strong before by the playoffs.

[Coolbreeze44]

Last year the Heat sunk to the bottom and probably should have lost in the play-in tournament. All they did was make it to the NBA finals. You want to play well going into the playoffs, but I don't see this part of the schedule meaning much at all. But the Wolves have to figure out how to solve their late game woes, and they need to do it immediately.

[kekgeek]

Last year the Heat sunk to the bottom and probably should have lost in the play-in tournament. All they did was make it to the NBA finals. You want to play well going into the playoffs, but I don't see this part of the schedule meaning much at all. But the Wolves have to figure out how to solve their late game woes, and they need to do it immediately.

The nuggets were also 8-10 in their last 18 games going into the playoffs last year

[Jester1534]

Last year the Heat sunk to the bottom and probably should have lost in the play-in tournament. All they did was make it to the NBA finals. You want to play well going into the playoffs, but I don't see this part of the schedule meaning much at all. But the Wolves have to figure out how to solve their late game woes, and they need to do it immediately.

The nuggets were also 8-10 in their last 18 games going into the playoffs last year

I know it’s different sport but the rangers I believe in month of August were like 8-20 and the won the World Series. As kek said it’s all about playing your best at the right time.

[Q-is-here]

Last year the Heat sunk to the bottom and probably should have lost in the play-in tournament. All they did was make it to the NBA finals. You want to play well going into the playoffs, but I don't see this part of the schedule meaning much at all. But the Wolves have to figure out how to solve their late game woes, and they need to do it immediately.

The nuggets were also 8-10 in their last 18 games going into the playoffs last year

So the two teams that ended up in the Finals last year basically limped into the playoffs. Interesting.

The thing about the NBA playoffs is that it is a freakin' marathon. Miami may be just got enough of their shit together to get out of the play in, but then they had the luxury of time with a best of 7 series to really buckle down, regroup, and focus.

[kekgeek]

I want to say also that this stretch of ball has gotten me concerned also. It’s just like the team that lost to Memphis way too many people like Finch, Ant, Kat and to a lesser extent Mcdaniels have all had this be in their DnA for the last 3 years.

They need to figure it out no doubt, but I’m not going to panic because they is no correlation to playing bad basketball before the playoffs correlating to playoff success.

Wolves need to figure it out but I’m not in panic mode at all

[Carlos Danger]

Other than having recent memory bias, I'm not sure why the last 10 games would be anymore important than the first 10 games or the middle 10 games. They all count the same. We are about two-thirds of the way through this season and have been hanging around at the top of the Western conference all year.

I understand we have all been kicked in the nuts by this franchise over time. But at some point, we have to appreciate what they have done this year. This is a good team. I'm hoping they get even better with a couple minor moves at the deadline. But if not, I personally feel this team can stack up against any team in the NBA this season. We are literally tied for the third best winning percentage in the NBA. Even if we finish the remaining games playing .500 we would still have about the second best season in Timberwolves history. And I certainly think we can and will do better than .500. Let's all just enjoy this ride a little more.

[Q-is-here]

I want to say also that this stretch of ball has gotten me concerned also. It’s just like the team that lost to Memphis way too many people like Finch, Ant, Kat and to a lesser extent Mcdaniels have all had this be in their DnA for the last 3 years.

They need to figure it out no doubt, but I’m not going to panic because they is no correlation to playing bad basketball before the playoffs correlating to playoff success.

Wolves need to figure it out but I’m not in panic mode at all

Understood, but to your point, there is a trend that cuts across multiple seasons now. The funny thing is they actually got the monkey of their back in the first part of the season where they won seemingly every close game. So this current squad has demonstrated that they can close games and squelch runs. But the old demons have come back for some reason.

No one likes to hear this since we often like to find direct causes that are within the control of our coaches, players, and refs, but isn't at least a couple of these recent losses due to some opposing player just making crazy shots that are really well defended and normally would go in at a 30% or less clip? Feels like we've had a little bit of opponent shooting luck go against us recently.

[kekgeek]

I want to say also that this stretch of ball has gotten me concerned also. It’s just like the team that lost to Memphis way too many people like Finch, Ant, Kat and to a lesser extent Mcdaniels have all had this be in their DnA for the last 3 years.

They need to figure it out no doubt, but I’m not going to panic because they is no correlation to playing bad basketball before the playoffs correlating to playoff success.

Wolves need to figure it out but I’m not in panic mode at all

Understood, but to your point, there is a trend that cuts across multiple seasons now. The funny thing is they actually got the monkey of their back in the first part of the season where they won seemingly every close game. So this current squad has demonstrated that they can close games and squelch runs. But the old demons have come back for some reason.

No one likes to hear this since we often like to find direct causes that are within the control of our coaches, players, and refs, but isn't at least a couple of these recent losses due to some opposing player just making crazy shots that are really well defended and normally would go in at a 30% or less clip? Feels like we've had a little bit of opponent shooting luck go against us recently.

There is for sure some of that. That bulls game last night White, Derozan and Drummond made so many tough shots. I actually thought the ball moved yesterday pretty well in the second half.

[FNG]

I like the nautical take, Lip! I'm going to narrow my rankings to the West because I just don't think I know enough about the East. My sense though is that Cleveland and the Knicks are not anywhere near as good as the Wolves, and Boston is still somewhat of an enigma...how do you lose to a Laker team led by three Wolves castoffs?

I'm going to rank them currently this way:

Clippers- how many teams can claim 4 certain HOFers? and they are playing terrific basketball.
Denver/Minnesota (slight nod to the Nuggets though if I were forced to pick)
Phoenix- scary group of shooters, but I don't trust their health
OkC- too young (they have a poor record in close games), and their lack of size was on display last night in Utah...outrebounded 48-32 by a team that doesn't start a center.

Miles to go before we sleep, but that's how I see the top five right now. Another series between Denver and Minnesota would be fun.