Wolves at Pacers GDT

[60WinTim]

A couple more things about last night's game, and this is something I almost never say (because I'm an unabashed homer). I thought every close call last night went our way. The Indy fans (and players) were clearly unhappy with the refs, and I think they have a case. Yeah, we had more fouls than Indy, but that's because we played very aggressive defense, and Indy plays none.

How about Rudy last night? Do you think Miles Turner will have nightmares for awhile about Rudy bullying him? Rudy is only credited with 3 blocks, but how many times did we see a Pacer think about taking a shot near the basket, but instead dribble or pass the ball out? Only Siakam took a chance around the basket, and Rudy altered some of his shots too.

Gee, you didn't mention the "no KAT means better reffing" theory!

[Q-is-here]

Just saw the replays. Wow. Edwards looked amazing - especially on that final block. I was worried he was going to try and do too much without KAT. But damn if he didn't deliver last night.

We are now 3-0 without KAT this year. Again...I'd rather have KAT than not have him. But this team has a lot of talent. I think we can be ok. We do need McDaniels to give more on offense along with other guys like SloMo.

As far as defense, I keep seeing people touting KAT's defense. But it's my opinion that if KAT's defense actually improved, it was probably 10% KAT and 90% Rudy effect. Rudy is our defense. I personally don't think we'll miss KAT much on the other end. But we do have 20 points to fill without him.

Kekgeek probably has a better grasp of the hard numbers than me, but the main issue is when Rudy sits and KAT would slide to Center. That's where the problem is now. KAT is a much better defensive Center than Naz. Reid has a history of being absolutely demolished in the paint when he plays Center.

Naz > KAT as a defensive PF
KAT > Naz as a defensive C

[FNG]

A couple more things about last night's game, and this is something I almost never say (because I'm an unabashed homer). I thought every close call last night went our way. The Indy fans (and players) were clearly unhappy with the refs, and I think they have a case. Yeah, we had more fouls than Indy, but that's because we played very aggressive defense, and Indy plays none.

How about Rudy last night? Do you think Miles Turner will have nightmares for awhile about Rudy bullying him? Rudy is only credited with 3 blocks, but how many times did we see a Pacer think about taking a shot near the basket, but instead dribble or pass the ball out? Only Siakam took a chance around the basket, and Rudy altered some of his shots too.

Gee, you didn't mention the "no KAT means better reffing" theory!

Ha, not my theory...I'm a charter member of the "KAT's on-court demeanor is just fine" camp!

[Q-is-here]

A couple more things about last night's game, and this is something I almost never say (because I'm an unabashed homer). I thought every close call last night went our way. The Indy fans (and players) were clearly unhappy with the refs, and I think they have a case. Yeah, we had more fouls than Indy, but that's because we played very aggressive defense, and Indy plays none.

How about Rudy last night? Do you think Miles Turner will have nightmares for awhile about Rudy bullying him? Rudy is only credited with 3 blocks, but how many times did we see a Pacer think about taking a shot near the basket, but instead dribble or pass the ball out? Only Siakam took a chance around the basket, and Rudy altered some of his shots too.

Gee, you didn't mention the "no KAT means better reffing" theory!

Ha, not my theory...I'm a charter member of the "KAT's on-court demeanor is just fine" camp!

I thought the refs missed a couple of blatant travels on the Wolves too, so yeah, felt like things went our way.

Also, that epic block by Ant....may have been a foul by McDaniels, who was about 5 feet below (!) Ant and also challenging the shot. Thought he may have gotten Nesmith with the body.

[Carlos Danger]

Just saw the replays. Wow. Edwards looked amazing - especially on that final block. I was worried he was going to try and do too much without KAT. But damn if he didn't deliver last night.

We are now 3-0 without KAT this year. Again...I'd rather have KAT than not have him. But this team has a lot of talent. I think we can be ok. We do need McDaniels to give more on offense along with other guys like SloMo.

As far as defense, I keep seeing people touting KAT's defense. But it's my opinion that if KAT's defense actually improved, it was probably 10% KAT and 90% Rudy effect. Rudy is our defense. I personally don't think we'll miss KAT much on the other end. But we do have 20 points to fill without him.

Kekgeek probably has a better grasp of the hard numbers than me, but the main issue is when Rudy sits and KAT would slide to Center. That's where the problem is now. KAT is a much better defensive Center than Naz. Reid has a history of being absolutely demolished in the paint when he plays Center.

Naz > KAT as a defensive PF
KAT > Naz as a defensive C

I can certainly see and agree with that when you put it that way. Finch will have to be creative. Is there anyone out there floating around as a Free Agent that would help us? We already know he's not going to turn to any of Garza, Minott or Miller.

[60WinTim]

Just saw the replays. Wow. Edwards looked amazing - especially on that final block. I was worried he was going to try and do too much without KAT. But damn if he didn't deliver last night.

We are now 3-0 without KAT this year. Again...I'd rather have KAT than not have him. But this team has a lot of talent. I think we can be ok. We do need McDaniels to give more on offense along with other guys like SloMo.

As far as defense, I keep seeing people touting KAT's defense. But it's my opinion that if KAT's defense actually improved, it was probably 10% KAT and 90% Rudy effect. Rudy is our defense. I personally don't think we'll miss KAT much on the other end. But we do have 20 points to fill without him.

Kekgeek probably has a better grasp of the hard numbers than me, but the main issue is when Rudy sits and KAT would slide to Center. That's where the problem is now. KAT is a much better defensive Center than Naz. Reid has a history of being absolutely demolished in the paint when he plays Center.

Naz > KAT as a defensive PF
KAT > Naz as a defensive C

I can certainly see and agree with that when you put it that way. Finch will have to be creative. Is there anyone out there floating around as a Free Agent that would help us? We already know he's not going to turn to any of Garza, Minott or Miller.

Sure seems like Marcus Morris would be a good addition. I am worried that Monte could be sidelined awhile, so adding another “trustworthy” body seems like a good idea.

[FNG]

Kekgeek probably has a better grasp of the hard numbers than me, but the main issue is when Rudy sits and KAT would slide to Center. That's where the problem is now. KAT is a much better defensive Center than Naz. Reid has a history of being absolutely demolished in the paint when he plays Center.

Naz > KAT as a defensive PF
KAT > Naz as a defensive C

I can certainly see and agree with that when you put it that way. Finch will have to be creative. Is there anyone out there floating around as a Free Agent that would help us? We already know he's not going to turn to any of Garza, Minott or Miller.

Sure seems like Marcus Morris would be a good addition. I am worried that Monte could be sidelined awhile, so adding another “trustworthy” body seems like a good idea.

If Monte is out tonight, we will likely see 15-20 JMac minutes on the back end of a BTB. The Cavs' two PGs are only 6-1", so it's a good match up for him. He's making 43% of this 3-pointers this season (57.1% in his last 10 games)...let's hope his 3-point success continues tonight.

[kekgeek]

Just saw the replays. Wow. Edwards looked amazing - especially on that final block. I was worried he was going to try and do too much without KAT. But damn if he didn't deliver last night.

We are now 3-0 without KAT this year. Again...I'd rather have KAT than not have him. But this team has a lot of talent. I think we can be ok. We do need McDaniels to give more on offense along with other guys like SloMo.

As far as defense, I keep seeing people touting KAT's defense. But it's my opinion that if KAT's defense actually improved, it was probably 10% KAT and 90% Rudy effect. Rudy is our defense. I personally don't think we'll miss KAT much on the other end. But we do have 20 points to fill without him.

Kekgeek probably has a better grasp of the hard numbers than me, but the main issue is when Rudy sits and KAT would slide to Center. That's where the problem is now. KAT is a much better defensive Center than Naz. Reid has a history of being absolutely demolished in the paint when he plays Center.

Naz > KAT as a defensive PF
KAT > Naz as a defensive C

I can certainly see and agree with that when you put it that way. Finch will have to be creative. Is there anyone out there floating around as a Free Agent that would help us? We already know he's not going to turn to any of Garza, Minott or Miller.

Yep that is what it is. Its not that Kat is some great defensive center (His numbers do suggest that this year) its that Naz is a terrible defensive center. (He has been good at PF). Numbers are below of our bigs (all in per 100 possessions)

Rudy Gobert
By himself: Net rating of -3.7 (34th percentile) and a defensive rating of 114.3 (66th percentile)
With Naz no Kat: Net Rating of 11.9 (96th percentile) and a defensive rating of 100.3 (99th percentile)
With Kat no Naz: Net Rating of 9.1 (91st percentile) and a defensive rating of 110.5 (90th percentile)

Kat
By Himself: Net rating of 7.2 (86th percentile) and a defensive rating of 103.5 (99th percentile)
With Rudy no Naz: Net rating of 9.1 (91st percentile) and defensive rating of 110.5 (90th percentile)
With Naz no Rudy: Net rating of 8.2 (89th percentile) and a defensive rating of 109.9 (91st percentile)

Naz
By Himself: Net rating of -9.2 (16th percentile) and a defensive rating of 116.1 (52nd percentile)
With Rudy no Kat: Net Rating of 11.9 (96th percentile) and a defensive rating of 100.3 (99th percentile)
With Kat no Rudy: Net rating of 8.2 (89th percentile) and a defensive rating of 109.9 (91st percentile)

So overall the wolves have been legit dominate on the defensive end when we play 2 of the 3 bigs on the floor together. I was shocked in the Rudy only lineups they were just above average and they were not dominating on the defensive end. Kat by himself defensive numbers have been amazing this year. There is a 12.6 pts per 100 possession this year defensively compared to when Kat plays center and Naz plays center. I think the wolves will be able to tread water and win games without Kat, I just don't think we can win a title without Kat because defensively we do take a big hit.

[Lipoli390]

Just saw the replays. Wow. Edwards looked amazing - especially on that final block. I was worried he was going to try and do too much without KAT. But damn if he didn't deliver last night.

We are now 3-0 without KAT this year. Again...I'd rather have KAT than not have him. But this team has a lot of talent. I think we can be ok. We do need McDaniels to give more on offense along with other guys like SloMo.

As far as defense, I keep seeing people touting KAT's defense. But it's my opinion that if KAT's defense actually improved, it was probably 10% KAT and 90% Rudy effect. Rudy is our defense. I personally don't think we'll miss KAT much on the other end. But we do have 20 points to fill without him.

As you can see, the stats kek provided support those touting KAT’s defense. Yes, Rudy is a stellar defender. But KAT has become an excellent defender this season and the numbers back that up. Note that KAT didn’t improve his defense overnight. He had already improved significantly two seasons ago before Rudy arrived. So after being out most of last season, he has continued his defensive progression this season from two seasons ago. As others have pointed out, the defensive hit will come when Naz is on the floor as our center. And we don’t have anyone who comes close to doing what KAT has been doing at that position on both ends of the court. That’s the problem we face going forward. The good news is that we have a number of excellent defenders - Rudy, Jaden, Ant, NAW and Slo Mo. And Naz has been good defensively this season at the PF position. So I’m not ready to throw in the towel. But it will be a tall order to compensate for what we’re losing on both ends of the court without KAT.

A 2-point win over Indiana with Ant scoring 44 points was important, but it doesn’t illuminate a path forward. I’ll be looking for other things - Jaden upping his scoring from 11 points to 22 and Finch coming up with defensive schemes that mitigate the defensive hole that comes with playing Naz at center, maybe other things. Ant kept us on track last night and I’m sure we’ll need more games like that from him. But we’ll need something else we haven’t seen yet. With almost every challenge comes an opportunity. I think this is Jaden’s moment. But maybe it will be something else. We’ll see. I’m bummed about KAT’s injury, but I’m not throwing in the towel yet on the Wolves championship aspirations this season.

[Coolbreeze44]

I think our chances of gaining the #1 seed have taken a hit, but if we can finish in the top 4 and get a healthy KAT back for the playoffs we can still contend.