kekgeek wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 12:50 pm
So I use cleaningtheglass.com (this website eliminates garbage time) and I go to Naz Reid and filter out all lineups that do not have another center with him. So I have eliminated lineups with Rudy, Kat and Garza that have Naz Reid in them.
So Net rating is much we are getting out scored with Naz at center per 100 possessions. What is in the 8th percentile, so meaning the Wolves when Naz is at center is in the bottom 8 percent of all lineups in the NBA in terms of net rating. Offense and Defense of rating is our points per 100 possessions and offensively we are in the bottom 10 % of all lineups when Naz is at Center and the bottom 20% of all lineups in the NBA with Naz at center defensively.
Other defensive stats when Naz is at center. The Wolves give up an offensive rebound on 35.6% of possessions with Naz at Center, dead last in the NBA. They foul 25.8% of possesions what is in the bottom 5% of the NBA. Efg% defense is 55.8% what is in the bottom 38% of defensive lineups in the NBA. So pretty much when Naz plays center we are a bottom 3rd lineup in the NBA in eFG% but we are not ending possessions with a rebound or we are fouling what make our defensive numbers terrible with Naz at Center. Teams are also shooting 74.4% at the rim against Naz at center lineups what is in the bottom 2% of all lineups in the NBA. However we do defend the perimeter well with Naz at Center because all mid range percentages are in the 97 percentile or above and defending the 3 we are slightly below average. We are also in the 100th percentile on forcing turnovers. So when Naz plays center it is either a shot at the rim where the other team scores, we foul the opponent, or the opponent misses and we don't get the offensive rebound.
Compare this to Kat numbers at center. (Took out lineups without Naz and Gobert *Hes played 0 possessions with Garza)
Net Rating: 7.2 (86th percentile), Offensive Rating 110.7 (22nd percentile) and Defensive Rating 103.5 (99th percentile). The Wolves have been elite still when Kat is on the floor at Center unlike with Naz. Opponents eFG% is 49.7% (99th percentile), Offensive Rebound Rate 22.9 (96th percentile), Foul Rate 28.4 (2nd percentile). Teams are shooting 61.5% at the rim against the Wolves with Kat at center (88th percentile) and we defend the 3 at a crazy rate teams are shooting 30.8% from 3 when Kat is alone at center what is in the 98th percentile.
When Kat is alone at center, the Wolves still foul a lot but we defend the rim at an elite rate, we defend the 3 point line at an elite rate and we rebound the ball at an elite rate, they do not turn teams over though. The only weakness this season when Kat is at Center is they foul a lot.
When Naz is at center, teams score at the rim with easy, if they don't score we foul, they defend the 3 at a league average clip but then we give up an offensive rebound. However we turn teams over a lot when Naz is at center. Pretty much if we don't get a turnover the other team scores when Naz is at Center. It's an all or nothing defense that has been more nothing this year. However Naz numbers are good defensively when he plays next to Rudy or Kat. I am just saying he is only effective when Naz gets to play the 4 where he is really really effective. I don't want these posts coming off that I think he is a bad player because I don't. I just think there is only a specific role Naz is good at and can thrive at and he has been amazing in that role!
OK. I started to dive into your website a little bit this morning. I've never used it before, so I'm not good at it. I was unable to re-create your filtering. Again, if you can just send me the link to your filtered data, I would be interested in how you did that. But on the surface, my first question would be...is looking at five man line ups the best way to determine how effective the center is? My concern would be that you have so many variables. Example, if I can re-create your data, I'm wondering if the Kat line ups are mostly: Kat, Edwards, McDaniels, Conley, SloMo and the Naz line ups are mostly: Naz, NAW, Shake, JMac, SloMo? Because clearly one of those line ups would produce better than the other - regardless of who was playing Center.
Also, I'm wondering why you don't just use the "positions" tab on that site (or team efficiency/four factors)? That appears to get me to what you were trying to filter. It breaks out each season and the positions he played. From that tab, I find Naz' net rating at center is 68th percentile. Your data showed he was only the 8th percentile. What is the discrepancy?
Here is the link to my data:
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/play ... efficiency
Once I understand your process better, I can look at Towns. But on the surface, I'm skeptical of any data that would show Towns as a 99th percentile defensive center. I need to see the data to believe it which is why I'm being such a pain in the ass.
But measuring defense specifically...I think is generally more difficult. That's why I'm so curious what people are using. It might help me gain a better appreciation of guys like McDaniels and NAW too.
