What we've learned this season

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Carlos Danger
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Re: What we've learned this season

Post by Carlos Danger »

kekgeek wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:39 am
Naz by himself
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/play ... ur_factors

Kat by himself
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/play ... ur_factors


The reason I do not use positions is because for whatever reasons when Kat and Naz share the floor together the Timberwolves list Naz as a center and Kat as a PF. So I need to filter Rudy and Kat off the floor when doing Naz lineups
Perfect. Thank you for posting that. Now that I understand what you are doing, I would respectfully say that I do not agree that is the best way to determine the effectiveness of each player as Center. The reason is because you are comparing each guy playing with different players. The data you having been posting is the effectiveness of those five man line ups - not necessarily the effectiveness of each Center (although they are a part of that lineup summary). It's no secret that different combinations bring different results (positive and negative). It's up to the coach to figure that out. Example...using your site, I filtered to see Naz playing Center with SloMo, NAW (129 possessions) and suddenly he's 93rd percentile Center.
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/play ... ur_factors

You also bring up another variable...how to determine which guy is playing "center" when two bigs are on the court. I know data sites like yours split that out - I have no idea how they determine that though. In today's game, only a few guys really play Center as we traditionally know it. Rudy would be one of those. But certainly not Kat or Naz as both guys are our better three point shooters.

Regardless. We both probably spent too much time on this. I think we all agree that none of us want to make Naz a traditional center. But I'm excited to see how he will fare next to Rudy for the rest of this season. Will he be a downgrade from Towns? Probably. But how much of a downgrade? We'll find out. To me, this is an audition to see if we could possible move KAT.

And again, even though we may have to agree to disagree, I appreciate the respectful back and forth.
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kekgeek
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Re: What we've learned this season

Post by kekgeek »

Carlos Danger wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:48 am
kekgeek wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:39 am
Naz by himself
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/play ... ur_factors

Kat by himself
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/play ... ur_factors


The reason I do not use positions is because for whatever reasons when Kat and Naz share the floor together the Timberwolves list Naz as a center and Kat as a PF. So I need to filter Rudy and Kat off the floor when doing Naz lineups
Perfect. Thank you for posting that. Now that I understand what you are doing, I would respectfully say that I do not agree that is the best way to determine the effectiveness of each player as Center. The reason is because you are comparing each guy playing with different players. The data you having been posting is the effectiveness of those five man line ups - not necessarily the effectiveness of each Center (although they are a part of that lineup summary). It's no secret that different combinations bring different results (positive and negative). It's up to the coach to figure that out. Example...using your site, I filtered to see Naz playing Center with SloMo, NAW (129 possessions) and suddenly he's 93rd percentile Center.
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/play ... ur_factors

You also bring up another variable...how to determine which guy is playing "center" when two bigs are on the court. I know data sites like yours split that out - I have no idea how they determine that though. In today's game, only a few guys really play Center as we traditionally know it. Rudy would be one of those. But certainly not Kat or Naz as both guys are our better three point shooters.

Regardless. We both probably spent too much time on this. I think we all agree that none of us want to make Naz a traditional center. But I'm excited to see how he will fare next to Rudy for the rest of this season. Will he be a downgrade from Towns? Probably. But how much of a downgrade? We'll find out. To me, this is an audition to see if we could possible move KAT.

And again, even though we may have to agree to disagree, I appreciate the respectful back and forth.
Ill drop it after this but you filtered NAW playing SF and Slow Mo playing PF only lineups. If you did just on the court with Naz with no Kat and Rudy they are getting out scored by 12.1 pts per 100 possessions.

Kat most used no big lineup:
Ant/NAW/Mcdaniels/Slow Mo is a plus 11.4 per 100 possessions, but Naz in that lineup its a -47.7
Conley/Edwards/Mcdaniels/Slow Mo is a plus 8.9 per 100 possessions but Naz in that lineup is a -66.7
Conley/Edwards/Naw/Slow Mo is a plus 66.7 per 100 possessions but Naz in that lineup is a -52.5

Naz most used no big lineup:
Ant/NAW/Mcdaniels/Slow Mo is a minus 47.7 per 100 possessions but Kat in that lineup is a 11.4
Jmac/Ant/NAW/Slow Mo is a minus 12.6 per 100 possessions but Kat in that lineup is a +120
Conley/Ant/NAW/Mcdaniels is a minus 45.9 per 100 possessions but Kat in that lineup is +15.6


Now some of this is small sample size no doubt. I mean that second lineup where Kat is a +120 that is a 4 possession sample size. But I can continue to filter in and out lineups that just swap Kat in for Naz when both are playing center and there is a significant advantage to Kat. The numbers for Naz have been really bad this year for Naz at center. And once again I think he is an elite player when he gets to play PF.

Also this is Naz Reid 5th year in the NBA. Every single year of his NBA career he has had a net rating that is negative when he is not playing next to another big and is playing center. His PF numbers were also really bad through out his career until this year. So good for Naz.
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Wolvesfan21
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Re: What we've learned this season

Post by Wolvesfan21 »

Naz is really bad defending the rim as a center, he's better as a PF for sure when he can use his athleticism to stick to guys. We've seen it enough. He just doesn't have the footwork or the skill to wall up and block shots. Nor rebound well either. None of it is good. And I like Naz overall for what he brings. He's just bad as a center in that role.

I do think an option would be to sit Kyle when Naz is at center. Go 100% offense small ball and just try and nail some 3's to keep pace and maybe even outscore the other team. You are going to give up points so might as well go all in on offense lineup wise. Focusing on 3P shooting and opening up driving lanes for Naz / Ant / Monte / etc...
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Carlos Danger
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Re: What we've learned this season

Post by Carlos Danger »

Wolvesfan21 wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 12:33 pm Naz is really bad defending the rim as a center, he's better as a PF for sure when he can use his athleticism to stick to guys. We've seen it enough. He just doesn't have the footwork or the skill to wall up and block shots. Nor rebound well either. None of it is good. And I like Naz overall for what he brings. He's just bad as a center in that role.

I do think an option would be to sit Kyle when Naz is at center. Go 100% offense small ball and just try and nail some 3's to keep pace and maybe even outscore the other team. You are going to give up points so might as well go all in on offense lineup wise. Focusing on 3P shooting and opening up driving lanes for Naz / Ant / Monte / etc...
NBA.com has some good stats on this. Naz actually does fine. Here's the link showing opponent FG% by zone for our centers:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/oppon ... 20FG%20PCT

Here's each players defense showing FG% and Defended FG% differences, sorted best to worst:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defen ... _PLUSMINUS
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Wolvesfan21
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Re: What we've learned this season

Post by Wolvesfan21 »

Carlos Danger wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:00 pm
Wolvesfan21 wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 12:33 pm Naz is really bad defending the rim as a center, he's better as a PF for sure when he can use his athleticism to stick to guys. We've seen it enough. He just doesn't have the footwork or the skill to wall up and block shots. Nor rebound well either. None of it is good. And I like Naz overall for what he brings. He's just bad as a center in that role.

I do think an option would be to sit Kyle when Naz is at center. Go 100% offense small ball and just try and nail some 3's to keep pace and maybe even outscore the other team. You are going to give up points so might as well go all in on offense lineup wise. Focusing on 3P shooting and opening up driving lanes for Naz / Ant / Monte / etc...
NBA.com has some good stats on this. Naz actually does fine. Here's the link showing opponent FG% by zone for our centers:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/oppon ... 20FG%20PCT

Here's each players defense showing FG% and Defended FG% differences, sorted best to worst:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defen ... _PLUSMINUS
Those are not only center minutes though from what I can tell based on the large sample size (he's listed as a F/C) and plays limited minutes as the big now. Naz rarely guards centers when KAT and Rudy play or plays that type of role. Like I said he has been very good on forwards.

I don't think he is good as a center nor rebounding which is probably most important. You are not going to get a stop unless you get a rebound. Kind of obvious I know. But it is very important. Which is why I've continued to not be as high on Jaden as others. He simply doesn't rebound well at all.

He is quick for his size and can stick to guys well. Even that late game block on the 3P attempt last week. I forget the player again. I like him on defense in that role more with a big behind him for help.
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