Wolves will lose vs. Suns.

[AbeVigodaLive]

For decades now, when people discuss the NBA playoffs... they mention how important matchups are. Well... oh... Fuck.

In those three games... the Wolves have two of their worst defensive efficiency ratings of the season. And in the other game... their worst offensive efficiency game of the season.

The Timberwolves lost all three games vs. the Suns this season by 6 points, 12 points and 22 points.
... Oops. My bad. That's just the deficit after the first quarter of those games.

The Suns have shot 39-63 (62%) overall and 16-27 (59%) on threes in those 1st quarters.

The Wolves have struggled with turnovers in the past two games... 32 TOs... and that's ONLY the 1st half.

Bradley Beal has played two games. He's shot 8-9 on three pointers. (89%)
Grayson Allen has shot 10-16 (63%). Remember, Allen led the league in three-point percentage. And he's mostly been guarded by Towns or Reid.

As a team, the Suns shot 42-86 (49%) on three pointers... with 17/31 and 16/29 games.
As a team, the Wolves shot 24-82 (29%) on three pointers... 10 - 29 has been the best game.

Anthony Edwards has shot 13 - 42 (31%) vs. the Suns.
- 14.2 ppg
- 6 reb
- 3.7 ast
- 3.3 TO

Individual matchups don't matter... but... Edwards is 0 - 6 vs. Beal in his career. He's 1 - 11 vs. Booker.

Devin Booker has won the past 10 games he's played vs. Minnesota... and 13 of the past 14.

_____________________________________


"But three games is a small sample size!"

OK. But so is 4 games or even 7 games in a playoff series. The point is that the Timberwolves have a very specific type of team and style. They're huge.

It's been a match-up nightmare.

Meanwhile, the Suns have a very specific type of team and style... they're the exact type of team that could give a team like the Timberwolves problems.

With Durant at the 4... he's matched up with Towns/Reid. Only, the Wolves are obviously reluctant to go with that matchup, so then that puts those bigs against the league's best three point shooter.

Meanwhile, with Gobert on the court, Towns and Reid aren't usually posting up. And Durant has plenty of length to contest their jump shots... and is a savvy and good defender on drives and post-ups. He's also a superstar. We saw how that works on Towns' drives to the hoop yesterday.

Nurkic is a big, lumbering, physical presence. Not exactly the type of guy Gobert usually thrives most against.

Booker is an incredibly savvy superstar with a lot of playoff experience/success. Durant is an incredibly savvy superstar with a lot of playoff experience/success. Beal is a savvy all star with playoff experience. They know how to draw calls... and they have the clout to get a favorable whistle.

Towns is known for his incredible shooting... playoff disappearances... a bad whistle... and immature play.

Edwards is known for his precocious play and personality. He's a future superstar... but with only limited playoff experience. He's yet to figure out the nuances of a favorable whistle... or even how to pass consistently when facing double teams and an obstructed path to the basket.

__________________________________________________

Phoenix in 5.

[BloopOracle]

I knew this was coming lol, you were acting a bit too 60WinTim-ish in the other thread!

[Q-is-here]

I have to go with this well articulated scenario.

[Wolvesfan21]

This seems likely to me. Even in the offseason I said one team has the guns to simply outmatch their defense (I didn't want this matchup). The Suns can simply score. But they have shot incredibly hot too, that could come back to earth. I can see the Wolves also game planning and hopefully having better answers for them.

If you tell me the Suns win in 5. I won't be surprised.

[TAFKASP]

I'm now convinced they'll lose to the Suns. Thanks for saving me the misery of watching it happen!

[FNG]

I like both of Abe's threads. Lots of good points in both, and clear evidence that Vegas has this one correct with having the series basically a tossup.

A lot of angst about how poorly we play against the Suns, and fear about their stellar 3-point shooting. But let's not lose sight of the fact that while the Suns made a very impressive 38.2% of their 3's this season, do you know who was better? Yep, your Wolves...at 38.7% And that despite missing their most reliable 3-point shooter much of the second half of the season. Yes, the Wolves need to respect and fear the Suns' 3-point shooting. But the Suns need to fear ours just as much, if not more.

I know we can't completely ignore our 0-3 against the Suns this season...it's the reason the #3 seed isn't favored in this series. But we have home court advantage, and only one of the three losses was at home. And while a blackout thankfully prevented me from watching this disaster, I suspect that the Suns really wanted to win this one more than we did. The Suns were eager to stay out of the play in tournament, and must have been much more aggressive than we were Sunday. Case in point: every Suns starter except Nurkic had double digit shot attempts, while not one T-Wolf did. That can't happen.

Does anyone think there will be games in this 7-game series where both Towns and Ant have fewer than 10 shot attempts? No chance. #3 seeds should not have to be challenged like this in the first round, but this will be a big challenge. But home court advantage will prevail. Wolves in 7.

[Coolbreeze44]

I like both of Abe's threads. Lots of good points in both, and clear evidence that Vegas has this one correct with having the series basically a tossup.

A lot of angst about how poorly we play against the Suns, and fear about their stellar 3-point shooting. But let's not lose sight of the fact that while the Suns made a very impressive 38.2% of their 3's this season, do you know who was better? Yep, your Wolves...at 38.7% And that despite missing their most reliable 3-point shooter much of the second half of the season. Yes, the Wolves need to respect and fear the Suns' 3-point shooting. But the Suns need to fear ours just as much, if not more.

I know we can't completely ignore our 0-3 against the Suns this season...it's the reason the #3 seed isn't favored in this series. But we have home court advantage, and only one of the three losses was at home. And while a blackout thankfully prevented me from watching this disaster, I suspect that the Suns really wanted to win this one more than we did. The Suns were eager to stay out of the play in tournament, and must have been much more aggressive than we were Sunday. Case in point: every Suns starter except Nurkic had double digit shot attempts, while not one T-Wolf did. That can't happen.

Does anyone think there will be games in this 7-game series where both Towns and Ant have fewer than 10 shot attempts? No chance. #3 seeds should not have to be challenged like this in the first round, but this will be a big challenge. But home court advantage will prevail. Wolves in 7.

It's kind of an indictment on the Wolves, but yes, the Suns played with much more desperation than we did. They were extremely sharp on both ends of the floor and looked like they were in a playoff game, which they were. I guess the most disappointing thing is we came out flat in a very big game for us. Our first quarter doldrums are getting old. Ant and KAT need to be ready to go from the opening tip or we will continue to fall behind and have to play catch up.

[Wolvesfan21]

I like both of Abe's threads. Lots of good points in both, and clear evidence that Vegas has this one correct with having the series basically a tossup.

A lot of angst about how poorly we play against the Suns, and fear about their stellar 3-point shooting. But let's not lose sight of the fact that while the Suns made a very impressive 38.2% of their 3's this season, do you know who was better? Yep, your Wolves...at 38.7% And that despite missing their most reliable 3-point shooter much of the second half of the season. Yes, the Wolves need to respect and fear the Suns' 3-point shooting. But the Suns need to fear ours just as much, if not more.

I know we can't completely ignore our 0-3 against the Suns this season...it's the reason the #3 seed isn't favored in this series. But we have home court advantage, and only one of the three losses was at home. And while a blackout thankfully prevented me from watching this disaster, I suspect that the Suns really wanted to win this one more than we did. The Suns were eager to stay out of the play in tournament, and must have been much more aggressive than we were Sunday. Case in point: every Suns starter except Nurkic had double digit shot attempts, while not one T-Wolf did. That can't happen.

Does anyone think there will be games in this 7-game series where both Towns and Ant have fewer than 10 shot attempts? No chance. #3 seeds should not have to be challenged like this in the first round, but this will be a big challenge. But home court advantage will prevail. Wolves in 7.

It hard to get shot attempts up when you simply turn it over. The Suns are a strange team. Did they sleep walk through much of the season? I haven't watched any of the non Suns-Wolves games, just seen highlights from the other Suns games. Seen them lose by double digits a lot. Very much like a roller coaster with there ups and downs.

Though in the end I think they should be favored based on beating the Wolves easily all 3 times and they have a legit proven 3 man scoring punch that is hard and close to impossible to stop. You got to just make them shoot tough shots and board the ball. They had too many good looks against the Wolves in all 3 games. It wasn't like the Chicago game where whats his name just got super hot and was hitting tough ones.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I like both of Abe's threads. Lots of good points in both, and clear evidence that Vegas has this one correct with having the series basically a tossup.

A lot of angst about how poorly we play against the Suns, and fear about their stellar 3-point shooting. But let's not lose sight of the fact that while the Suns made a very impressive 38.2% of their 3's this season, do you know who was better? Yep, your Wolves...at 38.7% And that despite missing their most reliable 3-point shooter much of the second half of the season. Yes, the Wolves need to respect and fear the Suns' 3-point shooting. But the Suns need to fear ours just as much, if not more.

I know we can't completely ignore our 0-3 against the Suns this season...it's the reason the #3 seed isn't favored in this series. But we have home court advantage, and only one of the three losses was at home. And while a blackout thankfully prevented me from watching this disaster, I suspect that the Suns really wanted to win this one more than we did. The Suns were eager to stay out of the play in tournament, and must have been much more aggressive than we were Sunday. Case in point: every Suns starter except Nurkic had double digit shot attempts, while not one T-Wolf did. That can't happen.

Does anyone think there will be games in this 7-game series where both Towns and Ant have fewer than 10 shot attempts? No chance. #3 seeds should not have to be challenged like this in the first round, but this will be a big challenge. But home court advantage will prevail. Wolves in 7.

It hard to get shot attempts up when you simply turn it over. The Suns are a strange team. Did they sleep walk through much of the season? I haven't watched any of the non Suns-Wolves games, just seen highlights from the other Suns games. Seen them lose by double digits a lot. Very much like a roller coaster with there ups and downs.

Though in the end I think they should be favored based on beating the Wolves easily all 3 times and they have a legit proven 3 man scoring punch that is hard and close to impossible to stop. You got to just make them shoot tough shots and board the ball. They had too many good looks against the Wolves in all 3 games. It wasn't like the Chicago game where whats his name just got super hot and was hitting tough ones.

A few days after throttling the Wolves for the 2nd time... and less than a week before destroying the Wolves for the 3rd time... Phoenix was down 35 - 4 to the Clippers in the 1st quarter.

[FNG]

I like both of Abe's threads. Lots of good points in both, and clear evidence that Vegas has this one correct with having the series basically a tossup.

A lot of angst about how poorly we play against the Suns, and fear about their stellar 3-point shooting. But let's not lose sight of the fact that while the Suns made a very impressive 38.2% of their 3's this season, do you know who was better? Yep, your Wolves...at 38.7% And that despite missing their most reliable 3-point shooter much of the second half of the season. Yes, the Wolves need to respect and fear the Suns' 3-point shooting. But the Suns need to fear ours just as much, if not more.

I know we can't completely ignore our 0-3 against the Suns this season...it's the reason the #3 seed isn't favored in this series. But we have home court advantage, and only one of the three losses was at home. And while a blackout thankfully prevented me from watching this disaster, I suspect that the Suns really wanted to win this one more than we did. The Suns were eager to stay out of the play in tournament, and must have been much more aggressive than we were Sunday. Case in point: every Suns starter except Nurkic had double digit shot attempts, while not one T-Wolf did. That can't happen.

Does anyone think there will be games in this 7-game series where both Towns and Ant have fewer than 10 shot attempts? No chance. #3 seeds should not have to be challenged like this in the first round, but this will be a big challenge. But home court advantage will prevail. Wolves in 7.

It hard to get shot attempts up when you simply turn it over. The Suns are a strange team. Did they sleep walk through much of the season? I haven't watched any of the non Suns-Wolves games, just seen highlights from the other Suns games. Seen them lose by double digits a lot. Very much like a roller coaster with there ups and downs.

Though in the end I think they should be favored based on beating the Wolves easily all 3 times and they have a legit proven 3 man scoring punch that is hard and close to impossible to stop. You got to just make them shoot tough shots and board the ball. They had too many good looks against the Wolves in all 3 games. It wasn't like the Chicago game where whats his name just got super hot and was hitting tough ones.

A few days after throttling the Wolves for the 2nd time... and less than a week before destroying the Wolves for the 3rd time... Phoenix was down 35 - 4 to the Clippers in the 1st quarter.

Even worse...the Suns had all their starters in the game, and the Clippers were missing Kawhi and Harden. Chalk that up to a game which the Suns for some reason weren't very motivated to win. I don't expect either team to take a game off in a 7-game playoff though.