Wolves will win vs. Suns

[AbeVigodaLive]

The NBA seasons is relatively long. Over 82 games, the Timberwolves were arguably the 2nd best team in the league. A late-season injury to the team's most efficient offensive player slowed them down just enough to miss out on the best record in the West by a measly game.

56 - 26 is a great season. 3 games is a ridiculously small sample size to the point it's almost irrelevant.

The Timberwolves had the league's best defense... and nobody else was all that close. Meanwhile, the Suns are only average defensively (#13). Granted, the Wolves aren't killers on offense, but they did improve to #16 on offense.

On paper, the Suns can't match Minnesota's size with Gobert, Towns and Reid.

McDaniels and Edwards and now NAW are three of the better/best individual perimeter defenders in the NBA... perfect for a matchup vs. Booker, Beal and even Durant.

Anthony Edwards. Let's have the talk. He's going to be a superstar, right? There's something magical about the guy. He's hit all the markers in his career trajectory for superstardom. The next one is playoff success. Or, how to will his team to playoff wins. Or, even how to make teammates better by making the smart basketball plays when teams game plan everything to stop him. Who's going to doubt him at this point? Good luck with that.

I mentioned defense already, right?!?!?

No way do the Suns shoot 49% on three pointers like they did vs. the Wolves in the regular season.
No way do the Wolves shoot 29% on three pointers like they did vs. the Suns during the regular season.
Bradely Beal is not shooting 89% on three pointers vs. the Wolves in the playoffs.

Chris Finch is a smart coach. He has a great staff. Playing a team randomly throughout an 82-game season is VERY different than game-planning for them in a best-of-7 series. The Wolves staff will work tirelessly to negate the Suns advantages, while creating mismatches that favor the Wolves. The series will be very different than the regular season.

Homecourt advantage. Timberwolves fans have been waiting for this playoff run for 20 YEARS! Target Center will be very loud. It's going to be crazy.

Towns is just due for a huge playoff run. And this matchup is favorable for him. He's had some famously awful disappearing acts in the playoffs. Some justified, others slightly less so. But he has the size advantage vs. Durant or whoever the Suns throw at him. He'll have his chances to shine. And you have to think it's time for the basketball gods to reward the best shooting big man in the game. Right?

Mike Conley is a savvy veteran leader who knows this might be his last chance at a title. Gobert is a seasoned playoff performer, too.

The Suns lost 33 games! They aren't some juggernaut for chrissakes. It's a flawed team that's sorta small... and that includes a thin bench.

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Timberwolves in 6.

[Leado01]

Thanks Abe. Yesterday was tough. I'd like to agree with your perspective!

[Coolbreeze44]

You know how you feel about this team after a big win? And then how bleak things seem after a bad loss? Well the truth lies somewhere in the middle. It's easy to be pessimistic after yesterday's debacle, but this is a damn good Wolves team. If you watched the Suns when they weren't playing the Wolves this year, you know the Wolves are a superior team. I have to believe we won't have trouble matching the Suns intensity on Saturday and that should make a huge difference. Get off to a good start, punch them in the mouth, and let's see how different the game will play out.

[Q-is-here]

I'm a firm believer that shooting wins nearly every time over size. Rebounding and post ups simply don't yield the same efficiency as spread-em-out shooting and movement yields. We need to hope their shots aren't falling and our shots are, but with everyone healthy, Phoenix can deploy multiple elite shooters on the floor and that's something we just don't have an answer for.

[TAFKASP]

I'm now convinced they'll win the series with the Suns. Thanks for convincing me to not miss a minute of it!

[60WinTim]

Dang! This scenario by Abe was spot on for game one, wasn't it?!?

[FNG]

This AbeVigodaLive guy is pretty smart. He needs to talk to that AbeVigodaLive knucklehead who started the "Wolves will lose" thread to set him straight.

One factor that we maybe didn't talk about enough pre-series about the Suns propensity to turn the ball over versus the Wolves' aggressive defense. Many of us here lamented the Wolves' turnovers during the season, but the Suns were worse. Maybe the Wolves 0-3 record during the regular season made us ignore this element, but the Suns 34 turnovers in the first two games and the Wolves' ability to turn those TOs into points have been instrumental in their losses.

The Suns are a potent team, but they don't have a PG...they essentially start three SGs. And Booker and Beal turned the ball over 10 times last night. Don't blame them...blame the front office for thinking they could succeed without a PG after Chris Paul left. In contrast, the Wolves have 3 reliable PGs, and are so stacked at this position that their leading on/off guy this season can't break into the rotation in the playoffs.

JMac hasn't been needed by Finchie in the first two games of the playoffs, but imagine how well he would fit in Phoenix by replacing Grayson Allen in the starting lineup. Not only would he protect the ball and give three elite shooters open looks, it would also allow sharpshooter Allen to provide scoring off the bench. The Suns' superstar window is closing fast, and they need to find a reliable PG. JMac is buried on the Wolves' bench and could be even more buried if Clark develops. A first round pick seems absurd on face value to obtain a guy who can't break into a rotation, but it would definitely help both teams. Not going to happen of course, but it makes a lot of sense.