Let's discuss the upcoming Denver series

[FNG]

KAT's defense on Jokic was a huge factor in our Game 1 win. But should we be surprised about how he defended the best player in the world? Although KAT's defense has been often maligned in the NBA, let's not forget that he left Kentucky with an elite defensive reputation. But more meaningful is the way he has defended Jokic in the past. Since the beginning of 2022-3 (including playoffs) no NBA center has defended Jokic better than KAT...he has held him to 48 points on 17/46 shooting or 37% (33% on threes). Second best is Sengun at 49.6%. The sample size is not small. To put it in perspective and to demonstrate why the Wolves prefer Rudy on Gordon, Jokic has a 55.4% shooting percentage (70% on threes) against Gobert. Clearly KAT's length and ability to use his bulk to keep Joker away from the basket bothers him.

To me, this is the most important factor in this series. But everything changes if KAT gets in foul trouble, which is probably why Ant (somewhat jokingly) scolded him about fouling last week. KAT surprisingly had no offensive fouls in Game 1, but still had to go to the bench in the second half with 4 fouls, and only played 31 minutes. Fortunately Naz came through for us, but we are playing with fire if we think that Naz will be successful against Joker...he has a 66.7% shooting percentage against Naz. We prevailed in Game 1 with KAT only playing 31 minutes, but ideally I think we need him at 38+ if we are going to win this series (we know Joker will be out there for 40+).

[Q-is-here]

KAT's defense on Jokic was a huge factor in our Game 1 win. But should we be surprised about how he defended the best player in the world? Although KAT's defense has been often maligned in the NBA, let's not forget that he left Kentucky with an elite defensive reputation. But more meaningful is the way he has defended Jokic in the past. Since the beginning of 2022-3 (including playoffs) no NBA center has defended Jokic better than KAT...he has held him to 48 points on 17/46 shooting or 37% (33% on threes). Second best is Sengun at 49.6%. The sample size is not small. To put it in perspective and to demonstrate why the Wolves prefer Rudy on Gordon, Jokic has a 55.4% shooting percentage (70% on threes) against Gobert. Clearly KAT's length and ability to use his bulk to keep Joker away from the basket bothers him.

To me, this is the most important factor in this series. But everything changes if KAT gets in foul trouble, which is probably why Ant (somewhat jokingly) scolded him about fouling last week. KAT surprisingly had no offensive fouls in Game 1, but still had to go to the bench in the second half with 4 fouls, and only played 31 minutes. Fortunately Naz came through for us, but we are playing with fire if we think that Naz will be successful against Joker...he has a 66.7% shooting percentage against Naz. We prevailed in Game 1 with KAT only playing 31 minutes, but ideally I think we need him at 38+ if we are going to win this series (we know Joker will be out there for 40+).

The problem is you have to be physical with Joker or he'll just bully you to get himself into a comfortable position within 5 -10 feet of the hoop, where he has absolutely elite touch. KAT will have to constantly be on the edge of fouling Jokic in order to keep him uncomfortable. I think that's why he's been pretty successful against him.

What we really need is for KAT is to use all his fouls on Jokic playing defense. We can't have stray voltage on close-outs of shooters or blatantly going over the back for an offensive rebound or hooking while driving to the hoop, etc. I think if he can avoid the stray voltage fouls and limit his fouls to being very physical with Jokic, he can probably play 30+ minutes still.

As for Naz, I think he can be an effective change-of-pace defender against Jokic. It's less about him being able to stop Jokic in the post and more about tiring him out by pressing up on him, fronting him, and really making him work to get the ball and get to his spots.

I think the Wolves are playing a long game with Jokic and Murray, which is to make them work so damn hard to keep the ship afloat that their legs start to tire as the series goes on. We won't completely stop them, but may be their crunch time magic starts to melt away due to fatigue.

[FNG]

I'm generally not a referee complainer, Q, but as much as I admire Jokic, I get frustrated by the referees refusing to call him on 3 seconds. I find myself counting to at least 5 several times every game as he backs his defender down. It cuts both ways though. There were several times in Game 1 I thought the referees could have called defensive 3 seconds on Rudy. Slight advantage Joker though.

[Q-is-here]

I'm generally not a referee complainer, Q, but as much as I admire Jokic, I get frustrated by the referees refusing to call him on 3 seconds. I find myself counting to at least 5 several times every game as he backs his defender down. It cuts both ways though. There were several times in Game 1 I thought the referees could have called defensive 3 seconds on Rudy. Slight advantage Joker though.

He also gets away with offensive fouls when he's battering guys into the post. I'm fine if they swallow the whistle so long as they allow the defender to body up Jokic with equal aggression. It can't just be that Jokic can bully a guy and then the defender is held to a different standard of physicality. Or call it tight both ways. I don't care so long as it's a consistent standard.

We've talked about it before, but KAT has definitely become a better paint/big man defender over the past 2-3 years. I think he filled out his frame and has a stronger base than when he first entered the league, making him better at holding his ground and just walling up. The improvement really came into focus in that Memphis series a couple years ago, pre-Rudy.