Anthony Edwards and State of the Wolves

[Lipoli390]

“I think Lively’s already better than Rudy.”

Come on, man

After the draft Lip ripped the mavs for the trade that brought Lively to the Mavs. He was adamant that they passed on an excellent player in Carson Wallace. Dallas moved on from a very expensive player in Bertans to move down a couple picks for a player that fit exactly their need in Lively. Maybe in a year or 2 or 3 years maybe Lip will be right and Wallace will turn into an all-star.

I wish I had participated in the board more the past few months but it's also time to allow ourselves some times to sit back and just enjoy this time as a wolves fan. If you want the Wolves to add young talent they have that ability this draft cycle with the picks they have. The Wolves roster this season has over half of it with guys 25 or younger.

Also the Dallas series isn't over yet.

I don’t recall ripping Dallas for the Lively pick and I was never a fan of Carson Wallace. If I thought they should have picked someone else, it wouldn’t have been Carson. Seriously, I think you’re confusing me with someone else, Monster.

[Sundog]

Lip, I shouldn’t have come out so strong on your Lively/Rudy comparison. Rudy has been decidedly mediocre this series, and it strikes me that Lively is much more the stereotype of center that you prefer, mobile, young, etc.

[Q-is-here]

Ant being in the conference finals at 22 is an amazing part of his development. It would not have been possible without Rudy and Conley on this team, both for their play and leadership. I cant wait what the future brings. Him and Jaden both have a ways to go, but I love that their eyes are wide open about just how much it takes to be successful in the post season.

Very good point. The Rudy trade was about two timelines - the one we're on now and the one we'll be on when Ant hits his prime (usually between age 24 and 30 for most NBA players). The first timeline is partially in service to the second timeline by giving Ant, Jaden, and Naz deep playoff experience while still relatively early in their careers.

I'd say mission accomplished. These guys saw up close and personal the Durant/Booker, Jokic/Murray, and Doncic/Irving combinations. That is just a ridiculously talented and accomplished trio of duos. And the latter two duos are surrounded by outstanding role players as well.

[Q-is-here]

We just lost the first two games of the Conference Finals against the Mavs and Edwards has struggled offensively. The Mavs defense is obviously focused on him - sort of the way the Pistons targeted MJ. Remember the “Jordan Rules”? He’s still rebounded well and other that last night his passing has been good. He’s also defended well although you can’t really stop a well rested, healthy Kyrie Irving.

All that said, I think it’s really important to remember that Edwards is only 22 years with limited playoff experience playing in his first Conference Finals. The only player his age to advance beyond the Conference finals was Kobe Bryant but note that Kobe was playing with Shaq in his prime and Shaq, not Kobe, was the Lakers’ best player back then. Otherwise, consider the following playoff history of prior young stars - hall of farmers (or future hall of famers):

ISIAH THOMAS
Age 23: 1st round loss
Age 24: Conf semis loss
Age 25: 1st round loss
Age 26: Conf finals loss
Age 27: Finals Loss
Age 28: Championship

MICHAEL JORDAN
Age 22: 1st round loss
Age 23: 1st round loss
Age 24: 1st round loss
Age 25: Conf semis loss
Age 26: Conf finals loss
Age 27 Conf finals loss
Age 28: Championship

DWAYNE WADE
Age 22: Conf semis loss
Age 23: Conf finals loss
Age 24: Championship

STEPH CURRY
Age 25: Conf semis loss
Age 26: 1st round loss
Age 27: Championship

Teams whose best player is 22 years old don’t win championships; they don’t even get as far as the Conference finals. As you can see, it’s always a progression. A young star develops individually as the team around him develops and grows together. At age 22, Ant is probably at least two years, maybe 3 or 4, from being ready to lead his team to the Conference Finals and possibly a championship. And make no mistake about it, this team will NOT make the NBA finals, much less win a championship, with KAT, Rudy, Naz or Jaden as the Wolves best player. As we’ve known for some time, this is Ant’s team and KAT will never be the best player on a championship contender. Sadly KAT’s looking like he can’t be the 2nd best player on a championship contender.

One of my main arguments against the Rudy trade was that it did not align with the trajectory of Ant. What we’re seeing against Dallas (and got glimpses of against Denver) is that I was right in that respect. The Rudy trade failed to reflect Ant’s age relative to Rudy’s and overvalued KAT’s abilities. OKC performed just as well if not better than the Wolves against Dallas even though they are much younger than the Wolves overall. KAT and Rudy aren’t going to get better as their already huge salaries continue to rise and put this franchise over the 2nd apron cliff.

What we’re seeing is that the Conference Finals are another level of basketball in the NBA. It’s a level that leaves no weaknesses unexposed. We’re seeing those weaknesses. We see KAT’s low IQ and mental weakness exposed. We see Rudy’s bad hands, physical weakness and mental passivity exposed. And we see Ant’s youth exposed (Jaden’s too).

Looking ahead, I’d feel much better if we had Dereck Lively instead of Gobert as our center. I think Lively’s already better than Rudy. More importantly Dereck’s age aligns with Ant, Jaden and Naz and no doubt he’ll continue to get much better and develop with the other guys as a team without hitting a payroll threshold that forces management to take the team apart.

This has been a terrific season. The Gobert trade gave us short term pleasure and if the Wolves turn this series around it may pay off with a championship or at least a Finals appearance this season. But I see a Wolves team that has hit its ceiling and I don’t see this team going any further than Ant can take them. Ultimately, Ant needs to improve but he also needs a genuine two-way number 2 or 1B partner to grow and develop alongside him. Curry had Thompson. MJ had Pippen. Stockton had Malone. Isiah Thomas had Dumars. Bird had McHale. Magic Johnson had Worthy. Wade had Shaq. Shaq had Kobe. The list goes on. That list for the Wolves will never include KAT. It might ultimately include Jaden or Naz but the jury is out on that for now.

I’m still not sure in my own mind whether the Wolves should bring this team back as is next season in spite of the 2nd apron. As we know, cap rules won’t allow the Wolves to make any meaningful tweaks to the roster if they bring it back. Maybe Ant and Jaden can improve enough to break through the ceiling next season with KAT and Rudy. It might be worth a shot. On the other hand, perhaps it’s time to cash out on the Rudy experiment and do what we should have done to begin with: Focus entirely on building for the long term around Edwards, Jaden and Naz. It’s not an easy choice.

Lip, there is a whole other thread where I documented something similar!

Someone mentioned Luka Doncic himself as having had a similar failure to Ant at the same age. A couple other guys with lengthy timelines not unlike the players you mention above are Jokic and Giannis.

The other thing about Jokic is that between the time he reached his first WCF and last year where they won the Finals, the only three players on both squads were him, Murray, and MPJ.

Heck, look at what has happened to the Dallas roster since Luka made the WCF just a couple years ago. A number of their bench pieces are similar, but Luka is literally the only constant as a starter. Everyone else was added over the last 15 months months! Kyrie, DJJ, PJ Washington, and Gafford - all newly added since February of 2023.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, I shouldn’t have come out so strong on your Lively/Rudy comparison. Rudy has been decidedly mediocre this series, and it strikes me that Lively is much more the stereotype of center that you prefer, mobile, young, etc.

My tongue was partially in my cheek when I wrote that - but only partially. Statistically, Lively actually has been at least slightly better than Rudy so far this series - more productive and efficient in fewer minutes. Lively has a great future in the League.

[Monster]

Let's look at Dallas for a minute. They screwed up and ended up letting Brunson walk for nothing. They made a sort of all in trade for Kyrie to fix that problem. I wasn't a big fan of it but also didn't think it was some sort of massive amount of assets to give up to get Kyrie. My issue was that it did hurt them last season though but it also gave them a better draft pick. Meanwhile at the trade deadline they added 2 starters in Gafford and PJ Washington. Both of those guys had been discussed in the past as guys we could have targeted adding to the Wolves depending on what it would cost to acquire them. Both guys turn 26 later this year. They were also able to move on from Grant Williams which seemed to be a bad signing for them.

Think about this a team with Derrick Jones Jr and PJ Washington as starters are likely going to the NBA finals. If you would have said that a couple years ago people would have probably not believed you but here we are. Luka is a big reason for that. Edwards has taken a significant leap in his passing and decision making this season. He isn't Luka but damn he has gotten so much better as a playmaker this year and he is only 22. He keeps getting better and that's what we want to see.

It's also worth mentioning (I'm not gonna give Finch and Nori a pass or anything) but this is their 3rd playoff run and Finch being hurt may have at times make some sort of difference on the sidelines. Meanwhile Jason Kidd played for years won a championship as a player, has coached 3 teams and now has a total of 57 playoff games coached that's 32 more games than Finch. I remember when I was wondering if Mike Malone had stalled out and was just a pretty good head coach and I've always been a fan of his. Then basically few months later he won a championship. Lol

[Crazysauce]

I am feeling coach Finch has stalled out.....

[AbeVigodaLive]

Let's look at Dallas for a minute. They screwed up and ended up letting Brunson walk for nothing. They made a sort of all in trade for Kyrie to fix that problem. I wasn't a big fan of it but also didn't think it was some sort of massive amount of assets to give up to get Kyrie. My issue was that it did hurt them last season though but it also gave them a better draft pick. Meanwhile at the trade deadline they added 2 starters in Gafford and PJ Washington. Both of those guys had been discussed in the past as guys we could have targeted adding to the Wolves depending on what it would cost to acquire them. Both guys turn 26 later this year. They were also able to move on from Grant Williams which seemed to be a bad signing for them.

Think about this a team with Derrick Jones Jr and PJ Washington as starters are likely going to the NBA finals. If you would have said that a couple years ago people would have probably not believed you but here we are. Luka is a big reason for that. Edwards has taken a significant leap in his passing and decision making this season. He isn't Luka but damn he has gotten so much better as a playmaker this year and he is only 22. He keeps getting better and that's what we want to see.

It's also worth mentioning (I'm not gonna give Finch and Nori a pass or anything) but this is their 3rd playoff run and Finch being hurt may have at times make some sort of difference on the sidelines. Meanwhile Jason Kidd played for years won a championship as a player, has coached 3 teams and now has a total of 57 playoff games coached that's 32 more games than Finch. I remember when I was wondering if Mike Malone had stalled out and was just a pretty good head coach and I've always been a fan of his. Then basically few months later he won a championship. Lol

It's pretty crazy how badly Dallas screwed up the Brunson situation... and how they recovered so quickly.

A LOT of it has to do with Luka Doncic being a legendary player.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I am feeling coach Finch has stalled out.....

If you want to blame the coach for one of the best shooting players in the NBA having one of the worst shooting playoff series in NBA history...

... sure.

Then blame Finch.

[Q-is-here]

I am feeling coach Finch has stalled out.....

Fair question. I think someone in good faith can say the whole is less than the sum of the parts offensively. It's hard to believe a team with Ant, KAT, Naz, and Mike Conley was in the bottom half of the league offensively all year. Is some of that coaching?

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I don't see any relationship between a team that wins its first title and coaching stability. Mike Malone is a good example of where there was stability, as he was there in the "build up" phase to winning a title. May be the same will be the case for Kidd with Dallas this year if they go on to win it all.

But then there are plenty of other examples of teams winning a title shortly after a new coach was installed even though the prior coach was very successful - Nick Nurse with Toronto (prior coach was Dwane Casey); Steve Kerr with Golden State (Marc Jackson); Ty Lue with Cleveland (David Blatt); KC Jones with the Celtics (Bill Fitch).

I think Finch is a very good, no-nonsense head coach. That doesn't mean someone else with a fresh perspective can't do better. I'm pretty neutral on whether he stays or goes because I don't see coaching stability as a positive or negative thing on a standalone basis.