Interesting Playoff Stats

[Q-is-here]

Wolves individual Net Ratings for top 8 in the playoff rotation:
Rudy* - +9.8
Jaden - +6.4
Ant - +4.4
Conley - +4.2
KAT - +1.0
NAW - +.5
Naz - (2.9)
SloMo - (7.3)

*Rudy had both the best individual offensive rating and defensive rating.

Best Wolves two-man pairing Net Ratings (minimum of 200 minutes played and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant - +12.8
Rudy/NAW - +11.1
Rudy/Jaden - +10.9
Rudy/Conley - +9.9
Jaden/Ant - +8.3

Best Wolves three-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 150 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/NAW - +20.1
Rudy/Ant/Conley - +13.2
Rudy/KAT/Jaden - +12.6
Rudy/Ant/Jaden - +12.5
Rudy/KAT/Conley - +12.1

Best Wolves four-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 75 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/NAW/Naz - +23.6
Rudy/Ant/NAW/Jaden - +18.2
Rudy/Ant/Naz/Jaden - +16.6
Rudy/KAT/Conley/Jaden - +13.1
Rudy/Ant/KAT/Jaden - +12.6

Best Wolves five-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 30 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/NAW/Naz - +18.6
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/Conley/KAT - +12.4
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/NAW/KAT - +9.5
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/Conley/Naz - +2.8
Ant/KAT/Jaden/NAW/Naz- (5.0)

[Q-is-here]

Here's how our guys did just looking at box-score oriented advanced stats, sorted by minutes played:

Name - PER/BPM/VORP
Ant - 22.4/6.7/1.4
Jaden - 13.0/1.6/.5
KAT - 19.1/2.8/.6
Rudy - 16.2/1/1/.4
Conley - 14.9/2.8/.6
NAW - 8.7/-1.3/.1
Naz - 14.4/.8/.3
SloMo - 14.4/2.3/.3

[Q-is-here]

If you ONLY go by the stats and forget a minute about context, sample size, opponent, matchups, eye test, etc., there are some interesting takeaways:

- Holy shit was Rudy valuable! Despite the clumsy post touches and fumble fingers, the guy had a positive impact on both ends of the court.

- KAT was neutral to slightly positive. But...we need to think about who would take his minutes if he was not here. Naz was much worse!

- The bench let us down. If you combine the +/- stuff and the box score stuff it doesn't paint a good picture. Our bench was outperformed by other team's benches. And we have the regular season 6th man of the year and arguably a contender for 7th man of the year in NAW if there was such an award.

- If you looked at Ant's stats earlier in the playoffs - say midway through the Denver series - you would see him right up there with Jokic as the best playoff performer. But he fell off starting late in the Denver series and through most of the Dallas games. He still had an outstanding playoffs given his age, but he ended up in that second tier of playoff performers below the likes of Doncic, Jokic, and even SGA.

- Jaden absolutely leveled up his game in the playoffs versus the regular season. He still isn't good enough offensively to be a 2nd or 3rd option, but there was definitely progress and his 3-point shooting really came around. Very encouraging.

[Carlos Danger]

Good stuff Q - thanks for posting.

Towns...I fully admit my bias... He is a very good player. But for that salary slot, I feel like we could do better. If not with one individual replacement, certainly with a collective haul of players/picks. He was really hurting the team IMO until the last couple games. For max money, you need a super star. He's very good. But we won a lot of games when he was out this past season. I think they have to make him available - but in no way should they trade him unless it brings back a big haul.

Naz...again, I fully admit my bias. I love that guy. I'm so happy he achieved 6MOY. He's still young and improving. I feel like everyone wants to do similar as you and say "he's not as good as KAT". True. He doesn't have to be. I love him in his current role. If we can add additional bench fire power I think he will be even better since he was really the only scoring threat this past season on the second unit.

Edwards - I loved what I saw of this guy this past season. He looked to be in better shape/condition. Yes, he wore down. It can be exhausting carrying a team! I didn't watch many games start to finish this past year. But I saw plenty of clips. People want to give Towns a Burger King crown for marginally improving his shitty defense. Meanwhile nobody is talking about Edwards D? I thought he made enormous strides on that side of the ball.

Rudy - Your stats show it. He is a valuable part of this turnaround. The first year with him was clunky. But TC doubled down by replacing DLO with Conley. Everything seemed to fall into place after that move.

Going forward, I have concerns over Conley's age and the lack of firepower from the bench (aside from Naz). Fix those two things and let's run it back. I'm fine with keeping Towns. But sometimes teams really want a guy (Rudy) and are fine over paying to get him. If that happens this offseason - I'm totally fine moving him.

[Lipoli390]

Good stuff Q - thanks for posting.

Towns...I fully admit my bias... He is a very good player. But for that salary slot, I feel like we could do better. If not with one individual replacement, certainly with a collective haul of players/picks. He was really hurting the team IMO until the last couple games. For max money, you need a super star. He's very good. But we won a lot of games when he was out this past season. I think they have to make him available - but in no way should they trade him unless it brings back a big haul.

Naz...again, I fully admit my bias. I love that guy. I'm so happy he achieved 6MOY. He's still young and improving. I feel like everyone wants to do similar as you and say "he's not as good as KAT". True. He doesn't have to be. I love him in his current role. If we can add additional bench fire power I think he will be even better since he was really the only scoring threat this past season on the second unit.

Edwards - I loved what I saw of this guy this past season. He looked to be in better shape/condition. Yes, he wore down. It can be exhausting carrying a team! I didn't watch many games start to finish this past year. But I saw plenty of clips. People want to give Towns a Burger King crown for marginally improving his shitty defense. Meanwhile nobody is talking about Edwards D? I thought he made enormous strides on that side of the ball.

Rudy - Your stats show it. He is a valuable part of this turnaround. The first year with him was clunky. But TC doubled down by replacing DLO with Conley. Everything seemed to fall into place after that move.

Going forward, I have concerns over Conley's age and the lack of firepower from the bench (aside from Naz). Fix those two things and let's run it back. I'm fine with keeping Towns. But sometimes teams really want a guy (Rudy) and are fine over paying to get him. If that happens this offseason - I'm totally fine moving him.

I agree with you pretty much down the line, Carlos. But I think you took things a bit too far referring to KAT “marginally improving his shitty defense.” His improvement has actually been substantial compared to what it was a few years ago. He had already gone from shitty to OK two years ago and this season he was really good defensively. Having said that, I agree with your core point that Ant is not getting enough credit for his substantial defensive improvement. Further, like you I’d be open to trading KAT and would prefer to keep Naz over KAT.

[Coolbreeze44]

Very interesting Q. Regarding a point I made earlier, I'm not sure how Rudy does it. He has little discernable basketball skill and he frustrates me to no end watching him play, but obviously he's effective on the floor. These stats aside, I can point to specific stretches in the Mavs series where he really hurt us with his play. Sometimes stats can lie but the case you make is pretty compelling.

[Sundog]

Holy shit, thank you for this, Q!

[Lipoli390]

If you ONLY go by the stats and forget a minute about context, sample size, opponent, matchups, eye test, etc., there are some interesting takeaways:

- Holy shit was Rudy valuable! Despite the clumsy post touches and fumble fingers, the guy had a positive impact on both ends of the court.

- KAT was neutral to slightly positive. But...we need to think about who would take his minutes if he was not here. Naz was much worse!

- The bench let us down. If you combine the +/- stuff and the box score stuff it doesn't paint a good picture. Our bench was outperformed by other team's benches. And we have the regular season 6th man of the year and arguably a contender for 7th man of the year in NAW if there was such an award.

- If you looked at Ant's stats earlier in the playoffs - say midway through the Denver series - you would see him right up there with Jokic as the best playoff performer. But he fell off starting late in the Denver series and through most of the Dallas games. He still had an outstanding playoffs given his age, but he ended up in that second tier of playoff performers below the likes of Doncic, Jokic, and even SGA.

- Jaden absolutely leveled up his game in the playoffs versus the regular season. He still isn't good enough offensively to be a 2nd or 3rd option, but there was definitely progress and his 3-point shooting really came around. Very encouraging.

This is great stuff, Q. It’s always good to look at the numbers to get a better sense of what different players are contributing. I’ll note that there isn’t a front office in the NBA that won’t be looking at these same stats and others. As we debate which (if any) of our three bigs the Wolves should consider trading, we tend to use these numbers to sort out who we’re rather keep. But we should keep in mind that these numbers will also inform what other teams are willing to give up for each of our three bigs.

So let’s put aside for a moment who we would prefer to keep and think about which of our three bigs would bring the best return value. These numbers alone suggest that Rudy would bring the best return in a trade and Naz the least with KAT in between. If you look at solely at their contracts, Rudy and Naz are more attractive than KAT because their terms are shorter - overall much smaller and shorter financial commitment. But KAT is a multi-year allstar in his prime who consistently draws double teams. The same can’t be said for either Rudy or Naz. Moreover, KAT can no longer be considered a defensively liability. So when you look beyond the numbers, KAT seems like the more valuable trade asset among the three.

The trade value of these three depends significantly on what teams will be looking to add a big this offseason. I suspect the Knicks would put a premium on KAT over the other two because they need offense and are in a win-now mode would likely elevate KAT over Naz in their valuation. Re-building teams would likely prefer Naz unless they’re looking for a vet leadership in which case they might be more interested in Rudy for a short two-season stint.

It will be interesting to see how all this plays out this summer.

[Q-is-here]

Very interesting Q. Regarding a point I made earlier, I'm not sure how Rudy does it. He has little discernable basketball skill and he frustrates me to no end watching him play, but obviously he's effective on the floor. These stats aside, I can point to specific stretches in the Mavs series where he really hurt us with his play. Sometimes stats can lie but the case you make is pretty compelling.

And keep in mind that Rudy didn't even play in Game 2 where we absolutely blew out the Nuggets, which helped everyone else's Net Rating!

I'm with you though on the eye test with Rudy, but the stats are kind of overwhelming. I almost don't like what they tell us because I have this dream of Ant playing in a 5-out system of shooters like they have in Boston. But it isn't easy to find bigs that can shoot AND play really good defense. We could put KAT back as our starting Center, but we've been there/done that before. He has improved on defense, but it's a massive falloff from Rudy. And we know that Naz would get destroyed as a starting Center.

[Q-is-here]

If you ONLY go by the stats and forget a minute about context, sample size, opponent, matchups, eye test, etc., there are some interesting takeaways:

- Holy shit was Rudy valuable! Despite the clumsy post touches and fumble fingers, the guy had a positive impact on both ends of the court.

- KAT was neutral to slightly positive. But...we need to think about who would take his minutes if he was not here. Naz was much worse!

- The bench let us down. If you combine the +/- stuff and the box score stuff it doesn't paint a good picture. Our bench was outperformed by other team's benches. And we have the regular season 6th man of the year and arguably a contender for 7th man of the year in NAW if there was such an award.

- If you looked at Ant's stats earlier in the playoffs - say midway through the Denver series - you would see him right up there with Jokic as the best playoff performer. But he fell off starting late in the Denver series and through most of the Dallas games. He still had an outstanding playoffs given his age, but he ended up in that second tier of playoff performers below the likes of Doncic, Jokic, and even SGA.

- Jaden absolutely leveled up his game in the playoffs versus the regular season. He still isn't good enough offensively to be a 2nd or 3rd option, but there was definitely progress and his 3-point shooting really came around. Very encouraging.

This is great stuff, Q. It’s always good to look at the numbers to get a better sense of what different players are contributing. I’ll note that there isn’t a front office in the NBA that won’t be looking at these same stats and others. As we debate which (if any) of our three bigs the Wolves should consider trading, we tend to use these numbers to sort out who we’re rather keep. But we should keep in mind that these numbers will also inform what other teams are willing to give up for each of our three bigs.

So let’s put aside for a moment who we would prefer to keep and think about which of our three bigs would bring the best return value. These numbers alone suggest that Rudy would bring the best return in a trade and Naz the least with KAT in between. If you look at solely at their contracts, Rudy and Naz are more attractive than KAT because their terms are shorter - overall much smaller and shorter financial commitment. But KAT is a multi-year allstar in his prime who consistently draws double teams. The same can’t be said for either Rudy or Naz. Moreover, KAT can no longer be considered a defensively liability. So when you look beyond the numbers, KAT seems like the more valuable trade asset among the three.

The trade value of these three depends significantly on what teams will be looking to add a big this offseason. I suspect the Knicks would put a premium on KAT over the other two because they need offense and are in a win-now mode would likely elevate KAT over Naz in their valuation. Re-building teams would likely prefer Naz unless they’re looking for a vet leadership in which case they might be more interested in Rudy for a short two-season stint.

It will be interesting to see how all this plays out this summer.

My guess is that the Wolves are going into this offseason with the assumption of (mostly) running it back. That means the starting 5 will most likely be back, including KAT and Rudy.

But I also think Connelly will be picking up the phone when or if suitors call. So I wouldn't rule out a trade for KAT or Rudy, but I don't think he'll proactively seek one out if you know what I mean.

The bench is a different story....For all their value during the regular season, I feel like they let us down in the playoffs. I could definitely see some changes where may be just one or two out of the top 10 in the rotation are back with us. I expect NAW to be one of those folks despite his less-than-stellar playoffs. Naz....not so sure about him.