Rudy Gobert Contract

[Lipoli390]

Rudy Gobert is one of the NBA’s 15 highest paid players. It’s noteworthy Rudy was the only player among the 15 highest paid who advanced to the conference finals this past season. There’s no doubt that Rudy, Edwards, KAT, Jaden and Naz were all keys to the Wolves finishing 3rd in the West and advancing to the Conference finals - with the exception of Ant, none more than Rudy.

So what now. We’re well over the 2nd apron and it’s clear management intends to stay above the second apron and bring the team back for another championship run next season. But what about after next season. The penalties associated with the 2nd apron are severe and not sustainable long term. But those penalties become totally unacceptable for teams that remain over the 2nd apron for two years. Among the additional penalties for repeat offenders is having your first round pick automatically bounced to the end of the 1st round. That would hit us in 2026 when w have one of our only two first round picks over for the rest of this decade. So I just don’t see this organization willing to exceed the second apron beyond next season.

Fortunately, getting below the 2nd apron after next season doesn’t necessarily mean breaking up our core. That’s because Rudy has a player option after next season, which gives the Wolves the chance to negotiate a long term deal with Rudy in lieu of him exercising his $46 million player option for the 2025-26 season. To that end, I can see the Wolves offering a 4 or 5 year deal to Rudy for far less per season to keep him on the roster and get the team’s payroll below the 2nd apron after next season. Rudy will be 32 years old before next season begins. He’s healthy and clearly keeps himself in great shape. And his game doesn’t rely on athleticism, which is typically what fades with age when a player gets into his mid 30s.

I think it’s clear that Rudy values stability and certainty. He loved being in Utah and never showed a hint of wanting to go somewhere else in search of a ring, warmer weather, more attention or anything else. He actually seemed a bit shaken by the deal that brought him here and it showed in how poorly he played his first season with the Wolves. Rudy seems to genuinely like it here. He seems to like his teammates and management. So my sense is that Rudy would love to get a long term deal here and close out his career with the Wolves - maybe leaving a year or two to return to the Jazz at the very end.

I would wager a decent sum that the Wolves will reach an agreement on an extended contract with Rudy sometime this summer or during the season. I’m not sure what it would take, but I’m thinking a 5-year deal that pays $20 million in the first two years, $15 million the next two, and $10 million in the 5th year. That would mean converting his current guaranteed $46 million for 2025-26 into a guaranteed $80 million. Seems like a fair deal. Not sure he’d take it and I’m not sure I’d want the Wolves to offer it, but it seems reasonable.

[Monster]

Lip I agree that Rudy will likely opt out/get an extension but I doubt the numbers will be that low but still it will be low enough to help the Wolves financial situation. There are a number of ways they could structure the deal to make it work. Maybe they even keep it flat so it's lower in the 2025-2026 season. Maybe they do an incentive deal like Horfors received where if you win the championship who cares if you pay the player and extra 10 million plus luxury tax you did the thing you wanted to do. For what Rudy would get paid I don't think there is any way he gets anything less for any of the seasons even the final one than what the mid level would be or projected to be.

I'll add that maybe the biggest salary consideration that off-season won't end up being Rudy but what do they do with Naz assuming he opts out and is due for a healthy raise?

[Lipoli390]

Lip I agree that Rudy will likely opt out/get an extension but I doubt the numbers will be that low but still it will be low enough to help the Wolves financial situation. There are a number of ways they could structure the deal to make it work. Maybe they even keep it flat so it's lower in the 2025-2026 season. Maybe they do an incentive deal like Horfors received where if you win the championship who cares if you pay the player and extra 10 million plus luxury tax you did the thing you wanted to do. For what Rudy would get paid I don't think there is any way he gets anything less for any of the seasons even the final one than what the mid level would be or projected to be.

I'll add that maybe the biggest salary consideration that off-season won't end up being Rudy but what do they do with Naz assuming he opts out and is due for a healthy raise?

I thought it was interesting listening to TC in his post-draft presser. He mentioned that the top needs they identified were speed and athleticism. He mentioned Edwards, Jaden and Naz as the three guys who currently provide those things. So assuming Naz continues to improve next season as I believe he will, I don’t see TC letting him go. The key will be a contract with Rudy at a salary that allows the Wolves to get and stay below the 2nd apron even after paying to retain Naz at what they project as his market value. Ideally, I’m sure they’d like to get below the 1st apron, but the imperative is to avoid being a repeat 2nd apron team, which carries with it totally unacceptable penalties. And of course, they could simply trade Rudy after next season to a younger team with cap room that would love to get a veteran mentor like him for one season. Maybe trade Rudy back to Utah next summer for Walker Kessler. .

I think this organization will ultimately prioritize Naz over Rudy if it comes down to a choice between the two after next season. I trust this organization to make a deal with Rudy only if it affords the luxury of also re-signing Naz next summer and getting below the second apron.

[60WinTim]

I don’t get that line of thinking, Lip. Substitute KAT for Rudy and I am on board.

[KG4Ever]

Lip I agree that Rudy will likely opt out/get an extension but I doubt the numbers will be that low but still it will be low enough to help the Wolves financial situation. There are a number of ways they could structure the deal to make it work. Maybe they even keep it flat so it's lower in the 2025-2026 season. Maybe they do an incentive deal like Horfors received where if you win the championship who cares if you pay the player and extra 10 million plus luxury tax you did the thing you wanted to do. For what Rudy would get paid I don't think there is any way he gets anything less for any of the seasons even the final one than what the mid level would be or projected to be.

I'll add that maybe the biggest salary consideration that off-season won't end up being Rudy but what do they do with Naz assuming he opts out and is due for a healthy raise?

I thought it was interesting listening to TC in his post-draft presser. He mentioned that the top needs they identified were speed and athleticism. He mentioned Edwards, Jaden and Naz as the three guys who currently provide those things. So assuming Naz continues to improve next season as I believe he will, I don’t see TC letting him go. The key will be a contract with Rudy at a salary that allows the Wolves to get and stay below the 2nd apron even after paying to retain Naz at what they project as his market value. Ideally, I’m sure they’d like to get below the 1st apron, but the imperative is to avoid being a repeat 2nd apron team, which carries with it totally unacceptable penalties. And of course, they could simply trade Rudy after next season to a younger team with cap room that would love to get a veteran mentor like him for one season. Maybe trade Rudy back to Utah next summer for Walker Kessler. .

I think this organization will ultimately prioritize Naz over Rudy if it comes down to a choice between the two after next season. I trust this organization to make a deal with Rudy only if it affords the luxury of also re-signing Naz next summer and getting below the second apron.

I hope you are wrong about the priority. Rudy's value is much higher than that of Naz. Rudy is the best rim protector in the game and Naz is well below average in that department. I don't think TC gave up a slew of assets for Rudy unless he expected Rudy to be here long term. Naz is a nice player to have in the rotation, but he's a backup and this was the first year his plus/minus was positive during the regular season, but then it was negative in the playoffs. Rudy's been vastly superior in plus/minus stats and you see it when Rudy takes a seat, the other team is able to attack the rim much easier. Maybe, if Naz improves a lot, I will feel differently, but right now I'd be ticked if Rudy wasn't made a priority at the expense of retaining Naz.

[Coolbreeze44]

I feel a little differently about Rudy. I am against extending him. I think he was brought here for 4 years to try and team with KAT and Ant to win a title. At the end of those 4 years I think the Gobert window is closed, for a host of reasons. Principal among those is the need to make room for the next window. His salary after two more years will be a drag on what we need to do to execute the Ant - Jaden - NAZ - Dillingham window. Hopefully we win a title in the next two years, and maybe that would change things. But for now I want to see us take our shot, and if we don't win, it will be time to move on.

[Lipoli390]

I feel a little differently about Rudy. I am against extending him. I think he was brought here for 4 years to try and team with KAT and Ant to win a title. At the end of those 4 years I think the Gobert window is closed, for a host of reasons. Principal among those is the need to make room for the next window. His salary after two more years will be a drag on what we need to do to execute the Ant - Jaden - NAZ - Dillingham window. Hopefully we win a title in the next two years, and maybe that would change things. But for now I want to see us take our shot, and if we don't win, it will be time to move on.

My thinking pretty much aligns with yours, Cool. But I’m open to keeping Rudy into the next window if the price is low enough to restore and maintain our ability to use our cap exceptions, aggregate outgoing players in trades and do other things the 2nd apron prevents.

[WildWolf2813]

He may extend, maybe even drop the player option to extend, but it won't be for the type of money Naz Reid would turn down. Isaiah Hartenstein just got 3/$87. Gobert's gonna command that in free agency.

[60WinTim]

He may extend, maybe even drop the player option to extend, but it won't be for the type of money Naz Reid would turn down. Isaiah Hartenstein just got 3/$87. Gobert's gonna command that in free agency.

Yeah, I doubt it would by anything less than 30 mil, and probably more.

It really comes down to KAT. He is the only reason the Wolves are committed to a minimum of two straight years above the 2nd apron. He is a valuable player and important part of the Wolves being a great team. But he ain't worth that contract he has!

[Monster]

Oh and are they gonna pay to keep NAW?