Wolves Draft and Free Agency Grades

[Lipoli390]

The draft is over and I suspect the Dozier signing was the Wolves last gasp in this year’s free agency. So I thought it was time to render final pre-season grades for the Wolves on both.

DRAFT

I’m giving the Wolves an A-. I loved the move up to #8 and decision to draft Rob Dillingham, my second favorite PG behind his teammate Reed Sheppard in this year’s draft. Getting that pick essentially for a 12 year old without giving up either of our two picks was an absolutely terrific maneuver by TC. Yes, there was risk in taking Rob given his youth and more importantly his small size - 6’3 wingspan and 165 pound frame. But his quickness, shooting, ball skills and moxie give him all-star potential down the road as a potentially dynamic backcourt partner for Ant. Taking TJ at #27 was also an excellent choice. I think it was pretty much a no-brainer to take him although Scheierman was a tempting prospect to grab at that point. So don’t want to give TC too much credit for doing what seemed like the obvious thing at the time, but we’ve watched prior Wolves regimes and other organizations miss on the obvious, so I’ll certainly credit TC for making a very good pick at 27.

So what not an A+? Actually, I would have given the Wolves an A+ or at least an A if they hadn’t, in my view, squandered their high second round pick. Trading way down from 37 to 53 simply to dump Wendell Moore’s salary rather than just releasing him was a blunder in my view. When you have a $200 million payroll and are already paying an $80 million luxury tax, eating Moore’s $2.5 million salary for one season would have been trivial even after factoring in the additional luxury tax associated with that small salary. It’s the equivalent of Boston Scientific investing $170 million in a new lab in MN (which they’re actually doing now) and cutting out the free pastries for employees. I’m not sure I blame Tim Connelly for this since it seems to have Glen Taylor’s finger prints all over it - a petty small-ball mentality.

Without any assurance they’d be able to keep Monte Morris, it would have been far better to waive Moore (or keep him) and use the #37 pick on a more mature, NBA ready PG prospect of which there were several impressive candidates. Ajay Mitchell was selected at 38. He’s a 22 year old Junior who averaged 20 points and shot over 50% from the field and 39% from behind the arc while also averaging 4 assists and 4 rebounds. KJ Simpson was selected at 42. He’s a 22 year old Junior who averaged nearly 20 points, 5 assists and 6 rebounds while shooting 47.5% from the field and 43.4% from behind the college arc. Jamal Shead was selected at 45. He’s an 22 year old Senior who averaged 6.3 assists and 2.2 steals. Any one of those three would have been an excellent choice at 37. They could have been signed for very little money to our final roster spot or a two-way deal. And as older, more experienced rookies, they would have given us another option for PG depth behind Mike Conley. They would have also given Rob Dillingham some competition to challenge him.

Note, I’m still giving the Wolves an A- on the strength of their first round, especially the move to get Rob. But as the cliche goes, it’s often the little things that drive success. We say that about players, but it applies equally to business executives including NBA front office execs. I think the Wolves front office execs were great on the big things in this year’s draft, but messed up on the little things. What impact all this will have remains to be seen.

FREE AGENCY

I’m giving the Wolves a C- for free agency. The main reason for the relatively poor grade is that they failed to get their two main free agent targets, namely their own players from last season, Anderson and Morris. They came back a big with the Ingles signing, which I liked, but dropped the ball in my view with the Dozier signing. Milton didn’t work out and Dozier isn’t nearly as good as Milton. Overall, the Wolves came out of free agency without a reliable veteran back up for the 37 year old Mike Conley. That’s worthy of a D. But I had to raise the grade to a C- in recognition of the Ingles signing.

[Monster]

I'm not a fan of losing out on a player at #37 but this is how I see that trade and the subsequent traded down.and out of the 2nd

Out
#37 and Moore and his guaranteed salary

In
future 2nd round pick
Cash (plus savings of not having to pay Moore's salary which would have been over 7 million with luxury tax considerations)
An open roster spot that can be used on a vet player or young player or something in between.

Lip I believe all the PG options you listed were older experienced college PGs. Are those guys better and more ready to help the Wolves this year than a guy that's played a season or more in the G-league after playing a few years in college? You and I both LOVE draft picks and young prospects but I also think an open roster spot that you can add a young player for cheap that could be the next McLaughlin or obviously someone even better and could be at any position has value. When you add up all the possible value the Wolves were able to get from #37 I still don't love it but they didn't just dump it for cash and salary savings. They drafted 2 rookies this year and have 2 more on 2 way contracts in Clark and Edwards and who knows they could add another one on a 2-way or even one of their full roster spots. I'll bet that Dozier's roster spot isn't safe.

[Monster]

As for FA I think Ingles for the money is simply a better signing than keeping Anderson and it's only a 1 year deal so if Young guys are ready to play they can move on. I like the Dozier signing more than most but I said before his roster spot is likely far from safe. We will see how much of his salary is guaranteed and go from there but if someone beats him out of comes available and he doesn't perform well he won't be here. Connelly clearly has an affinity for him and believes he can play but let's remember that didn't get him a roster spot a year ago and Connelly has moved on from plenty of his own guys before including Morris this off-season. July 6 is when deals can be official it's still VERY early in FA especially for a team like the Wolves who will be bargain hunting. I think there is no way we are done looking at ways to improve the roster. Another thing to consider is signing a guy like we did with Nix last year that has actual NBA experience to a 2 way deal...or even resign Nix himself if he shows out in SL etc. There are still some solid avenues to add to the roster.

One thing I wonder in my mind is whether signing a guy like Edwards undrafted out of college that was eligible for this year's draft to a 2-way or even if it was an actual NBA deal is that a FA move or more of a draft move or should we have some sort of bonus category? It feels like the Edwards signing right after the draft (like Naz) feels to me more like part of the draft class than a FA signing. If we sign a rookie from this year's draft cycle later like out of summer league that feels a little less like part of the draft cycle but I guess it would be like signing an Adam Theilen out of one of the rookie mini camps in the NFL I would consider that guy part of their rookie class. I mean it doesn't really matter but with 3 2-way deals and more depth of talent than ever it can be something fun to think about or not. Lol

[Lipoli390]

I'm not a fan of losing out on a player at #37 but this is how I see that trade and the subsequent traded down.and out of the 2nd

Out
#37 and Moore and his guaranteed salary

In
future 2nd round pick
Cash (plus savings of not having to pay Moore's salary which would have been over 7 million with luxury tax considerations)
An open roster spot that can be used on a vet player or young player or something in between.

Lip I believe all the PG options you listed were older experienced college PGs. Are those guys better and more ready to help the Wolves this year than a guy that's played a season or more in the G-league after playing a few years in college? You and I both LOVE draft picks and young prospects but I also think an open roster spot that you can add a young player for cheap that could be the next McLaughlin or obviously someone even better and could be at any position has value. When you add up all the possible value the Wolves were able to get from #37 I still don't love it but they didn't just dump it for cash and salary savings. They drafted 2 rookies this year and have 2 more on 2 way contracts in Clark and Edwards and who knows they could add another one on a 2-way or even one of their full roster spots. I'll bet that Dozier's roster spot isn't safe.

Monster - I think you’ve done a great job making the counter case to mine. I’m almost persuaded. . I just don’t see a young PG prospect out there the Wolves can sign who would be nearly as good a prospect or potential contributor as the 2nd-round picks I mentioned. Obviously, it’s all pretty speculative by the time you get to the second round, which is why I still gave the Wolves an A- in spite of my disappointment with what they did in the second round.

Question - Did we actually get a 2nd round pick through all those moves we made in the second round or just a second-round swap? Did we get more than one? I’ve been searching Google but unable to find anything definitive.

[60WinTim]

It seemed clear that it was a "protected 2nd round swap". And that was the trade with Toronto. We don't know the year. But if Toronto is bad enough, I assume the swap is voided.

I know we've lamented the Wolves disregard for 2nd round picks in the pre-Connelly era, but I ain't losing sleep over this one. #37 was used to ditch Moore -- both his salary and roster spot. And given we already selected 2 first rounders, and also Jaylen Clark playing for the first time, how many young guys can you bring to camp?

[KG4Ever]

I'll give this draft an incomplete as RD could be great or he could be a total bust and I'd have to factor in the draft capital that was burned up in acquiring RD, the additional tax burden the RD trade created, both of which are hard to assess. Giving up two future 1st round picks is a steep price to pay, and if you look at what happens to point guards taken in the top ten going back ten years or more, you find the success rate to be not all that high. I'm not happy that TC has traded away so much draft capital as he inherited a team that had a core of Ant, KAT, Jaden and Naz, and other than trading away DLO for Conley and NAW, he hasn't done anything remarkable and while trading away three picks and a swap to get Gobert may have helped push us to a WCF series appearance, but it really shortened Ant's window for winning a title as a post-Gobert team without draft capital will struggle to compete for a title. I was a lot more optimistic with the Wolves a year ago and predicted them to have a great year (and they did pretty much exactly as I predicted) but seeing Finch's shortcomings and TC's disappointing handling of free agency, plus seeing how good Boston is, Dallas is and how scary OKC can be after adding Hartenstein and Caruso and they have a plethora of draft capital and cap space to add a star if one become available at the deadline (maybe Kawhi or Curry or some other star on whatever west team goes into tankmode), makes me less optimistic for next year. Hopefully, I'm being too pessimistic, but I think relying on two rookies to push the team over the hump is just not realistic.

For free agency, I'll give TC a D- (even though an F would be justified), for free agency as he brought in a guy who gets no minutes (Garza), a guy who is older than Conley (Jingles) and a guy who is not an NBA player and losing SloMo and a reliable backup in Monte will hurt.

[Lipoli390]

It seemed clear that it was a "protected 2nd round swap". And that was the trade with Toronto. We don't know the year. But if Toronto is bad enough, I assume the swap is voided.

I know we've lamented the Wolves disregard for 2nd round picks in the pre-Connelly era, but I ain't losing sleep over this one. #37 was used to ditch Moore -- both his salary and roster spot. And given we already selected 2 first rounders, and also Jaylen Clark playing for the first time, how many young guys can you bring to camp?

The #37 pick had a lot more value than some future 2nd round pick swap. It made no sense in my view to give up that value simply to get rid of a small contract with only one year left. Penny wise and pound fooling as I see it.

How many guys can we bring to camp? I would think can and WOULD bring a full roster along with three 2-way players to camp. Two of our three 2-way deals haven’t been filled yet. One of our 15 roster spots hasn’t been filled yet. I would have drafted one of the PGs I mentioned at 37 and given him the 2-way deal that Nix had last season. It’s clear that Nix isn’t going to be an NBA player.

What TC did in the 2nd round strikes me as mysteriously bad. That’s why I suspect Glen Taylor might be behind it. I remember when the Wolves sold the 1st round pick they could have used to draft Rudy Gobert. To this day I don’t know whether that was Flip being dumb or Glen Taylor directing him to do it.

[Lipoli390]

I'll give this draft an incomplete as RD could be great or he could be a total bust and I'd have to factor in the draft capital that was burned up in acquiring RD, the additional tax burden the RD trade created, both of which are hard to assess. Giving up two future 1st round picks is a steep price to pay, and if you look at what happens to point guards taken in the top ten going back ten years or more, you find the success rate to be not all that high. I'm not happy that TC has traded away so much draft capital as he inherited a team that had a core of Ant, KAT, Jaden and Naz, and other than trading away DLO for Conley and NAW, he hasn't done anything remarkable and while trading away three picks and a swap to get Gobert may have helped push us to a WCF series appearance, but it really shortened Ant's window for winning a title as a post-Gobert team without draft capital will struggle to compete for a title. I was a lot more optimistic with the Wolves a year ago and predicted them to have a great year (and they did pretty much exactly as I predicted) but seeing Finch's shortcomings and TC's disappointing handling of free agency, plus seeing how good Boston is, Dallas is and how scary OKC can be after adding Hartenstein and Caruso and they have a plethora of draft capital and cap space to add a star if one become available at the deadline (maybe Kawhi or Curry or some other star on whatever west team goes into tankmode), makes me less optimistic for next year. Hopefully, I'm being too pessimistic, but I think relying on two rookies to push the team over the hump is just not realistic.

For free agency, I'll give TC a D- (even though an F would be justified), for free agency as he brought in a guy who gets no minutes (Garza), a guy who is older than Conley (Jingles) and a guy who is not an NBA player and losing SloMo and a reliable backup in Monte will hurt.

KG - Under your approach, every draft would initially be graded an incomplete. I think there are naturally two grades associated with each draft. One grade is the one you get contemporaneously with the pick. Then several years down the road you get a hindsight pick that you are ultimately judged by.

I base my contemporaneous grade on the potential and fit of the pick compared to other choices and how the team’s front office maneuvered to get the pick. I thought it was imperative that the Wolves come away with a talented PG in the draft. It was my hope we’d trade up high enough to get Reed Sheppard, or short of Reed, high enough to get Carter or Carrington. Otherwise, I had my sights set on KJ or Ajay in the 2nd round at 37. TC didn’t get high enough to get Reed, but he got one of the two next best PG talents. I was on the fence between Dilly and Carter and I’m still not sure we made the right choice between the two. But TC’s maneuver to get #8 and selecting a talented PG like Dilly was masterful in my view. Having said that, this pick will get a highlight grade in a few years and that grade could be an F if Dilly flops and Carter or Carrington soars.

Otherwise, I agree with much of your assessment except I believe TC deserves more than a little credit for things he’s done. The DLO deal was brilliant. TC also signed Anderson. The jury’s still out on Miller, Minott and Clark. Luka Garza’s a very solid player. Finally, TC had the good sense to re-sign Naz and I think TC has created an excellent culture.

I can’t dispute the value Rudy has brought to this team. He was a huge part of the Wolves success last season. But I agree with you that we gave up too much and that the timeline was wrong, creating a window that doesn’t align well with the trajectory of Ant, Jaden and Naz. And I still believe there were other paths to getting to where we got last season even if it might have taken another year or two. We could have signed Hartenstein as a free agent and kept Kessler. We could have done a lot with just a few of the other assets we gave up for Rudy. But my assessment is speculative. I can’t argue with the actual success we had last season.

TC has put himself in a very challenging position. He’s created a dual window team that he’ll have to manage in a very challenging environment with severe CBA constraints. It’s hard to win in the NBA when you’re focused entirely on one window. It’s obviously even more difficult to manage two windows. We’ll see how it goes.

I’m happy with TC, but I’m nervous. He has to start hitting on his picks or this thing will fall apart. The best thing TC has going for him, as you noted, is that he inherited Ant, Jaden, Naz, KAT and a full set of draft picks. He used a ton of those picks to get Rudy. At some point TC will have to hit on at least a couple of the picks he makes. The Moore pick was a bust. The Miller and Minott picks are looking precarious. The Clark pick hasn’t been tested but I still have the image in my mind of him clowning around on the bench with Moore. Now we have Dilly and TJ. I really hope he hit on both. If he did, then TC’s dual window experiment will be a success.

[KG4Ever]

Lip - I guess I thought giving TC an incomplete was better than giving him a bad grade. I think draft grades are just click bait crap anyway. I honestly care less whether sportswriters give us an A or a C (they rarely get worse than that) as it doesn't matter at all.

In some ways I like the RD pick and in some ways I am not a fan of it. There are many avenues to get a point guard and we got a good one in Mike Conley and I loved that trade. I also loved the Leonard Miller draft pick but if Finchy don't play him, then what does it matter. I did like Kyle signing but he is no longer on the roster. I did like TC's free agent signings and trade for Monte last year until I realized Finchy wasn't going to give them minutes and they were pretty much zeros. However, if ownership was opening its purse to build a championship caliber team, I don't get the dumping of a second rounder and not resigning Kyle and Monte if more money could have landed them.

I have mixed feelings of Gobert trade. I love Gobert the rim protector and in the short term I have no complaints there other than how he hampers our cap space, but right now his impact is pretty much on par with Ant to team success. But now we add RD and while he may be a future all-star (he also may be nothing more than a bench scorer), it may take him several years to get to the point where he is a difference maker in the playoffs and by that time we may have lost Rudy or KAT or they decline. So unless RD comes out on fire like Donovan Mitchell did, I have to think he's going to be less effective than had the Wolves gone another route for a point guard. Say, we acquired Tyus Jones (who I never wanted to get rid of in the first place as I preferred him to DLO) or Murray or Suggs if he was attainable or simply brought back Monte or signed Fultz. Or we could have drafted Kolek who was available at 27. If we didn't acquire RD, we'd still have our draft picks to keep or use as trade ammo.

While I hope hindsight is favorable to the trade, I don't know and rather than focus on my fears related to the trade, incomplete seems to be the right response from me.

[Wolvesfan21]

I'm giving both an A+. You got Ingles on a vet min who was being paid 11 million I think last season. You got Dilly out of thin air for a team who is ready now to pop and the next few years. Not in 7 years. That was a baller trade.

KA was a liability on offense. I was so sick of seeing Ant go into the paint only to see KA's guy leave him wide open in the corner to double Ant, Ant pass to him and KA brick it. I like KA's defense sure, it was great, but Ingles is a better fit for this team and Ant. Ingles shoots something close to 60% on open corner threes. Speaking of which-

The Wolves will be a top 5 offense next year for sure. Ant is going to be awesome with the additions of Dilly and Ingles. If Shannon or one of our other young guys also steps up and contributes well, then watch out. I do think the defense could take a step back but also top 5. We still could be number 1 though. We'll see. But I predict both will be top 5.

Excellent moves. I would have done the exact same. No I am not TC.