Timberwolves offense

[Wolvesfan21]

I agree. Especially considering that he's going to be asked to cover tougher assignments on D when Rudy needs to sit. He's unfortunately our defacto backup C.

Except on offense he could a lot of the time be guarded by slow big centers who simply cannot guard him (too slow). His numbers are going up, up, up.

I think it's reasonable to think Naz doesn't shoot as high a percentage from 3 but the guy has improved his game every year I don't see why we can't expect him to get better overall this season too. I also wouldn't be surprised if his 3 point shooting volume goes up not down. Obviously it's a reasonable take to wonder if he drops off a bit overall but to some extent he is sort of a proven player doing a lot of what he does well for multiple seasons. Last year wasn't some sort of shocking out of this world performance other than his higher 3 point percentage.

As for his defense... In general I don't worry as much about his man defense as his ability to help in a team concept and protect the paint. One thing he did last year was significantly reducing the rate at which he fouls.

Bigger centers will bully Naz down low and rebound. Like others said, I do wonder if they try Randle on bigger centers. Neither is obviously ideal. However like I said, we should then torch them on the offense. Bigger centers like say Jokic can't guard Naz on the perimeter. No chance. Not Randle either if he's hitting the 3.

The biggest leap for Naz to make is if he can become decent protecting the rim and rebounding, a lot to ask to be honest. Just got to rebound at a higher rate for sure. Guys like Love couldn't protect the rim either, but at least he was a great rebounder to make up for it. If Naz can become Kevin Love like that would be a big win, plus with the added dimension of driving and handling at a higher level which I think he is.

Then the biggest factor is if Rudy can stay healthy. Because then we'd have to play Garza who is even worse protecting the rim or ballpark of Naz as a 5. Garza can light it up too on offense though, so maybe the drop off isn't too big. Trading offense for defense.

Our big situation is uncharted territory right now so that is where I am intrigued to see how it plays out.

[Monster]

Except on offense he could a lot of the time be guarded by slow big centers who simply cannot guard him (too slow). His numbers are going up, up, up.

I think it's reasonable to think Naz doesn't shoot as high a percentage from 3 but the guy has improved his game every year I don't see why we can't expect him to get better overall this season too. I also wouldn't be surprised if his 3 point shooting volume goes up not down. Obviously it's a reasonable take to wonder if he drops off a bit overall but to some extent he is sort of a proven player doing a lot of what he does well for multiple seasons. Last year wasn't some sort of shocking out of this world performance other than his higher 3 point percentage.

As for his defense... In general I don't worry as much about his man defense as his ability to help in a team concept and protect the paint. One thing he did last year was significantly reducing the rate at which he fouls.

Bigger centers will bully Naz down low and rebound. Like others said, I do wonder if they try Randle on bigger centers. Neither is obviously ideal. However like I said, we should then torch them on the offense. Bigger centers like say Jokic can't guard Naz on the perimeter. No chance. Not Randle either if he's hitting the 3.

The biggest leap for Naz to make is if he can become decent protecting the rim and rebounding, a lot to ask to be honest. Just got to rebound at a higher rate for sure. Guys like Love couldn't protect the rim either, but at least he was a great rebounder to make up for it. If Naz can become Kevin Love like that would be a big win, plus with the added dimension of driving and handling at a higher level which I think he is.

Then the biggest factor is if Rudy can stay healthy. Because then we'd have to play Garza who is even worse protecting the rim or ballpark of Naz as a 5. Garza can light it up too on offense though, so maybe the drop off isn't too big. Trading offense for defense.

Our big situation is uncharted territory right now so that is where I am intrigued to see how it plays out.

Bigger centers can't bully Garza though. They may be able to shoot over him or beat him other ways but he is strong. They have to guard him on the other end and Garza is a problem on the offensive boards he may draw fouls which could be significant if he drafts them on one of those big guys.

Meanwhile if teams put a smaller guy on either Garza or Randle those guys may kill them in the paint. At times Naz has eaten there too. I'm not sure which of those guys is best beating a double team by passing but that Chicago game COBY white was switched on Randle and it was pretty clear he had no chance to guard Randle on his own.

[Wolvesfan21]

I think it's reasonable to think Naz doesn't shoot as high a percentage from 3 but the guy has improved his game every year I don't see why we can't expect him to get better overall this season too. I also wouldn't be surprised if his 3 point shooting volume goes up not down. Obviously it's a reasonable take to wonder if he drops off a bit overall but to some extent he is sort of a proven player doing a lot of what he does well for multiple seasons. Last year wasn't some sort of shocking out of this world performance other than his higher 3 point percentage.

As for his defense... In general I don't worry as much about his man defense as his ability to help in a team concept and protect the paint. One thing he did last year was significantly reducing the rate at which he fouls.

Bigger centers will bully Naz down low and rebound. Like others said, I do wonder if they try Randle on bigger centers. Neither is obviously ideal. However like I said, we should then torch them on the offense. Bigger centers like say Jokic can't guard Naz on the perimeter. No chance. Not Randle either if he's hitting the 3.

The biggest leap for Naz to make is if he can become decent protecting the rim and rebounding, a lot to ask to be honest. Just got to rebound at a higher rate for sure. Guys like Love couldn't protect the rim either, but at least he was a great rebounder to make up for it. If Naz can become Kevin Love like that would be a big win, plus with the added dimension of driving and handling at a higher level which I think he is.

Then the biggest factor is if Rudy can stay healthy. Because then we'd have to play Garza who is even worse protecting the rim or ballpark of Naz as a 5. Garza can light it up too on offense though, so maybe the drop off isn't too big. Trading offense for defense.

Our big situation is uncharted territory right now so that is where I am intrigued to see how it plays out.

Bigger centers can't bully Garza though. They may be able to shoot over him or beat him other ways but he is strong. They have to guard him on the other end and Garza is a problem on the offensive boards he may draw fouls which could be significant if he drafts them on one of those big guys.

Meanwhile if teams put a smaller guy on either Garza or Randle those guys may kill them in the paint. At times Naz has eaten there too. I'm not sure which of those guys is best beating a double team by passing but that Chicago game COBY white was switched on Randle and it was pretty clear he had no chance to guard Randle on his own.

I think they can and will bully Garza. He's certainly worked on his strength but he doesn't have the length or body mass of the larger centers in the league. I also don't think Naz, Garza or Randle are avg defenders at the 5. I would say all 3 are far below avg. But maybe our wings and guards can help out. And just maybe they take steps to becoming avg defenders.

I do like all three on offense though. That's where the mismatch will have to pay off. But I think rim protection and rebounding are more constants, then say 3P shooting. So we are probably giving up some without KAT on defense in the long run. We'll see.

[Monster]

Bigger centers will bully Naz down low and rebound. Like others said, I do wonder if they try Randle on bigger centers. Neither is obviously ideal. However like I said, we should then torch them on the offense. Bigger centers like say Jokic can't guard Naz on the perimeter. No chance. Not Randle either if he's hitting the 3.

The biggest leap for Naz to make is if he can become decent protecting the rim and rebounding, a lot to ask to be honest. Just got to rebound at a higher rate for sure. Guys like Love couldn't protect the rim either, but at least he was a great rebounder to make up for it. If Naz can become Kevin Love like that would be a big win, plus with the added dimension of driving and handling at a higher level which I think he is.

Then the biggest factor is if Rudy can stay healthy. Because then we'd have to play Garza who is even worse protecting the rim or ballpark of Naz as a 5. Garza can light it up too on offense though, so maybe the drop off isn't too big. Trading offense for defense.

Our big situation is uncharted territory right now so that is where I am intrigued to see how it plays out.

Bigger centers can't bully Garza though. They may be able to shoot over him or beat him other ways but he is strong. They have to guard him on the other end and Garza is a problem on the offensive boards he may draw fouls which could be significant if he drafts them on one of those big guys.

Meanwhile if teams put a smaller guy on either Garza or Randle those guys may kill them in the paint. At times Naz has eaten there too. I'm not sure which of those guys is best beating a double team by passing but that Chicago game COBY white was switched on Randle and it was pretty clear he had no chance to guard Randle on his own.

I think they can and will bully Garza. He's certainly worked on his strength but he doesn't have the length or body mass of the larger centers in the league. I also don't think Naz, Garza or Randle are avg defenders at the 5. I would say all 3 are far below avg. But maybe our wings and guards can help out. And just maybe they take steps to becoming avg defenders.

I do like all three on offense though. That's where the mismatch will have to pay off. But I think rim protection and rebounding are more constants, then say 3P shooting. So we are probably giving up some without KAT on defense in the long run. We'll see.

Strength has never been Garza's problem it's his lack of athletic ability combined with lack of length. Plus it's not like he is some sort of defensive savant although I think he is far from clueless on that end. It's kinda impressive that he has been able to keep his play strength while dropping weight and significantly improving his agility. He moves like an NBA player now but the thing I think he still lacks is vertically. He just doesn't get up and that hurts him I think that's one of his issues rebounding the ball and obviously that's gonna hurt him defensively. I agree I think good players will beat him but it's also worth saying those guys are beating starting level players.The way Garza moves now though there are plenty of guys that haven't had all the physical gifts that have been worthwhile defenders. Can Garza develop mentally on that end and be in the right places at the right times very often? If so he has enough size to put up some resistance individually and as a team defender. It definitely feels like if anyone is gonna figure it out to some extent on defense he might be able to. The guy is obviously doing everything possible to get the most out of everything he has. Him improving his defensive IQ is obviously not certain though. Him not being a zero on that end obviously affects his offense because of he basically puts up little resistance that's gonna keep him off the floor. Effort helps too and Garza plays hard.

[Wolvesfan21]

Bigger centers can't bully Garza though. They may be able to shoot over him or beat him other ways but he is strong. They have to guard him on the other end and Garza is a problem on the offensive boards he may draw fouls which could be significant if he drafts them on one of those big guys.

Meanwhile if teams put a smaller guy on either Garza or Randle those guys may kill them in the paint. At times Naz has eaten there too. I'm not sure which of those guys is best beating a double team by passing but that Chicago game COBY white was switched on Randle and it was pretty clear he had no chance to guard Randle on his own.

I think they can and will bully Garza. He's certainly worked on his strength but he doesn't have the length or body mass of the larger centers in the league. I also don't think Naz, Garza or Randle are avg defenders at the 5. I would say all 3 are far below avg. But maybe our wings and guards can help out. And just maybe they take steps to becoming avg defenders.

I do like all three on offense though. That's where the mismatch will have to pay off. But I think rim protection and rebounding are more constants, then say 3P shooting. So we are probably giving up some without KAT on defense in the long run. We'll see.

Strength has never been Garza's problem it's his lack of athletic ability combined with lack of length. Plus it's not like he is some sort of defensive savant although I think he is far from clueless on that end. It's kinda impressive that he has been able to keep his play strength while dropping weight and significantly improving his agility. He moves like an NBA player now but the thing I think he still lacks is vertically. He just doesn't get up and that hurts him I think that's one of his issues rebounding the ball and obviously that's gonna hurt him defensively. I agree I think good players will beat him but it's also worth saying those guys are beating starting level players.The way Garza moves now though there are plenty of guys that haven't had all the physical gifts that have been worthwhile defenders. Can Garza develop mentally on that end and be in the right places at the right times very often? If so he has enough size to put up some resistance individually and as a team defender. It definitely feels like if anyone is gonna figure it out to some extent on defense he might be able to. The guy is obviously doing everything possible to get the most out of everything he has. Him improving his defensive IQ is obviously not certain though. Him not being a zero on that end obviously affects his offense because of he basically puts up little resistance that's gonna keep him off the floor. Effort helps too and Garza plays hard.

It's not just strength it's his lack of mass. He's going to be easier to move around for big guys. It doesn't matter how strong you are if you are a twig! I like that he is going slimmer though and trying to get quicker. It may come at a cost though.

[FNG]

On Dane's pod yesterday, he and Chris Hine talked about the biggest positive change in the Wolves offense through 14 games...clutch rating in crunch time. The last few years many of us have complained about the lack of structure and success at crunch time, and the Wolves have consistently ranked in the bottom 10. This year they are 5th in crunch time offensive rating at 131. This is a remarkable turnaround that can be attributed to two main factors: swapping in a steadier veteran in Randle for KAT, and a maturing of Ant in these key moments. Very good to hear! I don't have access to this data, but I wonder if the Knicks show a decline in their crunch time offensive rating.

[Q-is-here]

On Dane's pod yesterday, he and Chris Hine talked about the biggest positive change in the Wolves offense through 14 games...clutch rating in crunch time. The last few years many of us have complained about the lack of structure and success at crunch time, and the Wolves have consistently ranked in the bottom 10. This year they are 5th in crunch time offensive rating at 131. This is a remarkable turnaround that can be attributed to two main factors: swapping in a steadier veteran in Randle for KAT, and a maturing of Ant in these key moments. Very good to hear! I don't have access to this data, but I wonder if the Knicks show a decline in their crunch time offensive rating.

It's good news, but given the narrow parameters that constitutes crunch time (the last few minutes of a close game), there is a limited sample size. It's like someone shooting 8-15 from 3 in their first few games and convincing yourself they are a 50%+ 3-point shooter. I need to see more of it before being convinced we turned it around from the prior Finch/Ant years.

[FNG]

On Dane's pod yesterday, he and Chris Hine talked about the biggest positive change in the Wolves offense through 14 games...clutch rating in crunch time. The last few years many of us have complained about the lack of structure and success at crunch time, and the Wolves have consistently ranked in the bottom 10. This year they are 5th in crunch time offensive rating at 131. This is a remarkable turnaround that can be attributed to two main factors: swapping in a steadier veteran in Randle for KAT, and a maturing of Ant in these key moments. Very good to hear! I don't have access to this data, but I wonder if the Knicks show a decline in their crunch time offensive rating.

It's good news, but given the narrow parameters that constitutes crunch time (the last few minutes of a close game), there is a limited sample size. It's like someone shooting 8-15 from 3 in their first few games and convincing yourself they are a 50%+ 3-point shooter. I need to see more of it before being convinced we turned it around from the prior Finch/Ant years.

I don't disagree, Q, and also want to see how this plays out with more data. Moore and Hines also said thought that the early data matched the eye test...that the Wolves have looked more intentional and controlled this season in clutch situations.

Further, I found the site that provides this data, and (again with small sample size), the Randle/KAT trade seems to have had a mirror impact on the two teams. This year the Wolves rank 5th with on ORtg of 131.6, and the Knicks are only ahead of the 76ers at 91.1. (and the Knicks are dead last in crunch time net rating). Last season, in 146 crunch time minutes our offensive rating of 104.1 ranked 22nd, while the Knicks ranked 12th at 115.9.

Crunch time offense is an important success factor, and it's not surprising to me that 4 of the top 6 teams last year were OkC, Boston, Dallas, and Denver. I'll be watching this statistic with some hope as the season progresses.

[thedoper]

I would say the eye test supports that Randle has more poise under pressure on offense than KAT by leaps and bounds.

[Q-is-here]

I would say the eye test supports that Randle has more poise under pressure on offense than KAT by leaps and bounds.

I will agree with you and FNG on the eye test as it relates to crunch time offense. I just want to see a bigger sample size before concluding that it's sustainable.

The thing that stands out to me with Randle vs. KAT is that Julius has an ability to initiate contact without getting called for an offensive foul, whereas KAT averaged one or two offensive fouls per game with seemingly similar levels of contact. Why is that?

Personally, I think it's a combination of how KAT is built, the way he moves, and his overall relationship with officials (he's a lot whinier than Julius). Randle is just very steady on his feet, doesn't flop around much, and generally keeps his emotions in check.

Edit: I also want to add though that I think KAT is ultimately the better overall player, but the point is that there are indeed some areas where Randle is better.