Naz or Randle. Can't have both.

[Q-is-here]

I keep trying to come up with reasonable landing spots for Randle. There aren't many. Miami is one spot if the Wolves were able to get involved in a Butler to Warriors trade. Another spot is Detroit -- they have the need and financial flexibility to take on Randle and deal with his player option and/or extension. And they might find a tremendous incentive if their 1st round pick we have is on the table, too! So Detroit is a logical 3rd team to work with the Wolves.

So, then it comes down to who we are targeting to replace Randle? Some names we have tossed around are John Collins, Nicola Vucevic and Jonas Valanciunus. Heck, we might even have interest in bringing back SloMo! But here is a name that has flown under the radar: Kelly Olynyk.

Kelly is another former Jazz player that has played with Rudy, NAW and Mike. He has 2 years left on his contract at roughly 13 mil per year. He is just returning from a back injury and has only played in Toronto's last 4 games. I think he would be a reasonable fit alongside Rudy and NAZ as our frontcourt trio. He can hit the 3, is a ball mover, and is not ball dominant.

Because of both Toronto's and Detroit's cap situation, a trade can be structured with Randle going out and only Kelly coming in, which means the Wolves would save over 20 mil THIS year. That would be a boatload of luxury tax savings, and would set up a reasonable chance of re-signing both NAZ and NAW this offseason.

Anyway, I have no idea why I am wasting so much time on trying to solve the Wolves roster/cap issues. I guess I am kind of bored at the moment. I do believe this is my favorite manufactured trade thus far!

Tim, Boredom is the spark of creativity!

I like this trade as well, not because I'm smitten over Olynyk, but because it offloads salary and enables my thesis that we need to play smaller and faster with the existing guys we have, especially introducing either Shannon Jr. or Minott into the rotation.

I think the one caveat of moving on from Randle (to talk out of both sides of my mouth) is it's one less guy you can throw the ball to and can create a shot out of nothing in halfcourt sets. Which is why we'd need to lean into playing more of an uptempo game, since transition is a good way to create good shots when you don't have more than one elite iso player.

[Wolvesfan21]

Tim, This team isn't going to compete for a title if we stay stuck in the bottom third in offense. Now I don't think Connelly will do anything until at least after this next stretch of 6-8 games where we have a number of tilts against the top tier of the NBA in both conferences. May be Finch just needs to mix the current ingredients a little differently to get the optimized blend of players and structure vs. flow-type offense, but I'm skeptical. It will be put to the test starting this Thursday.

I think the Wolves are "trading" so to speak mental and physical energy for defensive domination and giving up offense in return. Say you have only so much energy to expend per game both mentally and physically. The majority of focus/effort is going into the defensive side. And it's WORKING, the Wolves have been blowing teams out. Not only have they recently been the number 1 defense. It's by MILES! It's not even close. You could put the offense in the top 10 because the defense is just that good and still have the best defense.

Can this continue over the next week, 10 games, rest of season? We'll see. Right now we have a recipe for a championship team.

Now my only gripe so to speak is that the Wolves could probably push transition a bit more. Yes we are tired after stops, but so is the other team. You run on them and make them even more tired. Get a few more easy buckets.

We saw last year that we couldn't sustain elite level defense throughout all of the playoffs and eventually needed more offense to win games, but couldn't muster enough of it. At some point, we will come up against some team that just matches up better against us and can pick apart our defense more easily than others.

This is why most (not all) teams that ultimately win an NBA title were ~ top 10 in offense and defense. They can do both at a high level.

We were right in those Dallas games. KAT just himself shot like 30% in the first three games otherwise we'd have been up 2-1, maybe 3-0. Ant looked extremely worn down and tired also. Not only that Luka and Kyrie played above their level also.

I don't buy it that we "didn't have a chance" or whatever. We were right in it.

[FNG]

I get the frustration on the board with Randle's style of play, but I'm in the minority with Tim to not rock the boat right now. While I'm never opposed to any trade that would make us better, I'm not seeing likely trades I like. While I wish Randle's effort was more consistent on defense, he's looked more locked in recently, and our team defense has mostly looked good when he's on the court.

I think we undervalue Randle...here's where he ranks on the team in some metrics:

PPG: 2nd behind Ant
RPG: 2nd behind Rudy
APG: 2nd behind Mike
TS%: 3rd behind Rudy and NAW
WS: 2nd behind Rudy
BPM: 2nd behind Ant
VORP: 2nd behind Ant
ORtg: 3rd behind Rudy and NAW

And while his DRtg ranks last on the team among rotation players at (a very good) 109, he's tied with NAW and only 4 points behind team leader Rudy.

So Julius is a 20/7/4 guy who also ranks in the top 2 or 3 on the team in important advanced stats. It's difficult for me to come up with a player other teams would be willing to give us who would contribute like Julius is. Just like last year, our offense frustrates me at times. But now that the defensive intensity has returned to last year's level recently, we look like a title contender again to me...as long as we avoid any lengthy injuries to Rudy or Mike. I agree with Q that I don't like how we match up with OkC (frankly I'm not sure how I like how anyone matches up with them!) but a good showing in the game against them on NYE could make me feel a lot better. I say "stay the course", unless someone falls into TC's lap that can contribute like Julius is.

[60WinTim]

I get the frustration on the board with Randle's style of play, but I'm in the minority with Tim to not rock the boat right now. While I'm never opposed to any trade that would make us better, I'm not seeing likely trades I like. While I wish Randle's effort was more consistent on defense, he's looked more locked in recently, and our team defense has mostly looked good when he's on the court.

I think we undervalue Randle...here's where he ranks on the team in some metrics:

PPG: 2nd behind Ant
RPG: 2nd behind Rudy
APG: 2nd behind Mike
TS%: 3rd behind Rudy and NAW
WS: 2nd behind Rudy
BPM: 2nd behind Ant
VORP: 2nd behind Ant
ORtg: 3rd behind Rudy and NAW

And while his DRtg ranks last on the team among rotation players at (a very good) 109, he's tied with NAW and only 4 points behind team leader Rudy.

So Julius is a 20/7/4 guy who also ranks in the top 2 or 3 on the team in important advanced stats. It's difficult for me to come up with a player other teams would be willing to give us who would contribute like Julius is. Just like last year, our offense frustrates me at times. But now that the defensive intensity has returned to last year's level recently, we look like a title contender again to me...as long as we avoid any lengthy injuries to Rudy or Mike. I agree with Q that I don't like how we match up with OkC (frankly I'm not sure how I like how anyone matches up with them!) but a good showing in the game against them on NYE could make me feel a lot better. I say "stay the course", unless someone falls into TC's lap that can contribute like Julius is.

So you are joining me with "don't rock the boat", yet here I am coming up with all these trade proposals!

Regarding last year, that team was a championship contender, and would have been again this year. In addition to the array of problems detailed regarding ANT and KAT in the Dallas series, I believe we would have won game 2 if not for the lack of the new "Jaden Rule", where Kyrie should have been called for a foul instead of awarding the ball to Dallas at the end of the game...

As for the KAT trade, it was clearly a financial/roster building move. KAT was always going to be traded before we hit the of the 2nd year of being a 2nd apron team. TC struck the deal when he felt he had the best return vs the risk of holding out longer. It was always going to be a tough trade given the enormous size of KAT's contract.

So that brings us to the Randle dilemma. It seems prudent to stick with him as long as the team remains on its current winning pace. The only reason I dream up these trades is because 1) the unappealing style of Randle's game, but more importantly, 2) the current financial situation with Randle, NAZ and NAW all being free agents this upcoming offseason. It seems TC likes to have his house in order as often as he can, but having all three of those guys being FAs with the likelihood of only having financial flexibility to retain one seems like a lot of chaos for TC's house!

But it's not helping that NAZ is having a pretty unimpressive season thus far...

[Q-is-here]

I get the frustration on the board with Randle's style of play, but I'm in the minority with Tim to not rock the boat right now. While I'm never opposed to any trade that would make us better, I'm not seeing likely trades I like. While I wish Randle's effort was more consistent on defense, he's looked more locked in recently, and our team defense has mostly looked good when he's on the court.

I think we undervalue Randle...here's where he ranks on the team in some metrics:

PPG: 2nd behind Ant
RPG: 2nd behind Rudy
APG: 2nd behind Mike
TS%: 3rd behind Rudy and NAW
WS: 2nd behind Rudy
BPM: 2nd behind Ant
VORP: 2nd behind Ant
ORtg: 3rd behind Rudy and NAW

And while his DRtg ranks last on the team among rotation players at (a very good) 109, he's tied with NAW and only 4 points behind team leader Rudy.

So Julius is a 20/7/4 guy who also ranks in the top 2 or 3 on the team in important advanced stats. It's difficult for me to come up with a player other teams would be willing to give us who would contribute like Julius is. Just like last year, our offense frustrates me at times. But now that the defensive intensity has returned to last year's level recently, we look like a title contender again to me...as long as we avoid any lengthy injuries to Rudy or Mike. I agree with Q that I don't like how we match up with OkC (frankly I'm not sure how I like how anyone matches up with them!) but a good showing in the game against them on NYE could make me feel a lot better. I say "stay the course", unless someone falls into TC's lap that can contribute like Julius is.

But what is the opportunity cost of Randle's very good set of stats? My thesis is that his style of play stacked on top of the paint-clogging Rudy creates a dis-synergy that negatively affects the overall offense. And defensively he certainly isn't a net plus, so his absence really wouldn't hurt us on that side either. And whilst we can live with Rudy's poor hands and lack of outside shot due to all the elite other things he does, it's hard to live with TWO guys that play slow and clog the paint (teams really don't take Randle's outside shot seriously even though he isn't a terrible shooter).

Having said that, there is time to continue to evaluate, as we are still early in the trade season. These next 8 games will be a real barometer to me. I think my stance will harden on this issue, but I'm open to being proven wrong!

[FNG]

I'm just too lazy to make up trade ideas, Tim!

I agree that TC had to find a deal for KAT for financial reasons, and he felt this was the best one he could get. KAT is having a great offensive year, so right now the deal looks lopsided for the Knicks. I will point out though that although the Knicks are a game and a half ahead of the Wolves, they have only played 6 games against the tough West (3-3) while the Wolves have played 19 (11-8). I think the Wolves have superior depth and are the better team, and I hope they prove it Thursday night.

I'll also say this: If Donte was shooting anywhere near his performance of the last two seasons, I think we would be calling this trade a win for the Wolves. I certainly didn't expect him to be almost 10 percentage points worse on 3's at this stage of the year. But DiVo is excellent at getting open and has proven to be a sharpshooter over the past two seasons, so I expect him to progress toward his mean as the season goes on.

Thursday should be a fun one to watch...get that "pivot" GDT teed up early, Tim!

[DNatagal]

Randle for Dejounte Murray?

[Lipoli390]

I agree with Q and Tim. I’m not down on Randle as a player. I’m just down on him, paired with Rudy, as a fit for Ant and we need to reduce the payroll to have a chance at retaining NAW and/or Naz and still get below the 2nd apron. I like the Olynyk deal because it’s a pure salary saving deal. We shouldn’t kid ourselves into thinking we can get a player in return for Randle who will make us better this season. In fact, we could end up worse in the short term as we Randle’s scoring in the middle of the season.

Trading Randle in early February would be the right move if we’re still no better than a few games over .500. At that point, I’d want to see this team upping Naz’s minutes, reducing Conley’s minutes and giving more playing time to Garza, Minott, Dilly and TSJ. Depending on how things go, I could see getting Miller and Clark in involved starting in mid March.

[rapsuperstar31]

Naz is going to have to improve that shooting. After a hot start from 3 he is shooting 13/59, 22% from 3 the past 13 games and 24% the past 15 games. Does putting him in the starting lineup give him that confidence and give him his mojo back?

[FNG]

Naz is going to have to improve that shooting. After a hot start from 3 he is shooting 13/59, 22% from 3 the past 13 games and 24% the past 15 games. Does putting him in the starting lineup give him that confidence and give him his mojo back?

It’s an interesting idea, Cypress, and one that I have been considering too (as is Britt Robson on the Moore podcast). Moving Naz into the starting lineup potentially does three things:

-it improves our first unit defense. I’ve never been a fan of Naz on defense, but I’ve never questioned his effort (unlike Randle). And I see him as a superior defender right now.
-to your point, maybe a new role helps Naz rediscover his shot.
-and I’ve noticed that DiVo and Randle work together well. Maybe bringing them together off the bench can bring back Donte’s shot.