It’s the Offense, Stupid!

[Lipoli390]

Lip, I don't think Jaden is regressing. How could he at his age? He's shooting terribly and the fouls keep coming, but once he breaks out of the slump I don't see any reason why he's not a top 75 player again.

Hey Cool, regressing might have been a bit too strong, although I think his defense has taken a step back this season. On the other hand, my theory is that Jaden’s defense appears worse because of KAT’s absence. I think having both KAT and Rudy out there made others better defensively. My main concern with Jaden is his lack of improvement. He hasn’t take a leap offensively and his rebounding continues to be subpar for his size and position. I hope you’re right about him eventually breaking out of his slump. This team could really use a Jaden McDaniels playing up to his full potential.

Jaden would be less problematic if he didn't share the frontcourt with Randle and Rudy. Now we have three starters who either don't need to be guarded at all at the 3-point line (Rudy) or only need a soft closeout (Randle and Jaden). The result is a clogged lane for Ant and less space for Rudy as a roller.

Exactly, Q. Without any roster changes, I think the smart thing to do is start Naz and play him 30+ minutes per game next to Rudy. That should boost our offense without any harm to our defense.

[Q-is-here]

Hey Cool, regressing might have been a bit too strong, although I think his defense has taken a step back this season. On the other hand, my theory is that Jaden’s defense appears worse because of KAT’s absence. I think having both KAT and Rudy out there made others better defensively. My main concern with Jaden is his lack of improvement. He hasn’t take a leap offensively and his rebounding continues to be subpar for his size and position. I hope you’re right about him eventually breaking out of his slump. This team could really use a Jaden McDaniels playing up to his full potential.

Jaden would be less problematic if he didn't share the frontcourt with Randle and Rudy. Now we have three starters who either don't need to be guarded at all at the 3-point line (Rudy) or only need a soft closeout (Randle and Jaden). The result is a clogged lane for Ant and less space for Rudy as a roller.

Exactly, Q. Without any roster changes, I think the smart thing to do is start Naz and play him 30+ minutes per game next to Rudy. That should boost our offense without any harm to our defense.

But that means alienating Randle and completely souring the relationship. That would force him to demand a trade and may be we'd be OK with that. And if no one offers anything of value than he and his agent just may need to accept his role as a bench big. It's interesting how things have evolved (or devolved?) this way for DLO in L.A. Eventually the player realizes that he really isn't wanted by anyone and accepts the demotion.

[Lipoli390]

Jaden would be less problematic if he didn't share the frontcourt with Randle and Rudy. Now we have three starters who either don't need to be guarded at all at the 3-point line (Rudy) or only need a soft closeout (Randle and Jaden). The result is a clogged lane for Ant and less space for Rudy as a roller.

Exactly, Q. Without any roster changes, I think the smart thing to do is start Naz and play him 30+ minutes per game next to Rudy. That should boost our offense without any harm to our defense.

But that means alienating Randle and completely souring the relationship. That would force him to demand a trade and may be we'd be OK with that. And if no one offers anything of value than he and his agent just may need to accept his role as a bench big. It's interesting how things have evolved (or devolved?) this way for DLO in L.A. Eventually the player realizes that he really isn't wanted by anyone and accepts the demotion.

Spot on, Q. Randle would likely demand a trade, which would further diminish his already limited trade value. In my view we should probably trade Randle before bringing him off the bench if we can find a taker that gives us some value in return. But I have some doubt about whether such a deal exists. At some point Naz and Randle will have to switch roles this season if we’re going to have a chance of turning things around, although I’m not sure that will be enough. Randle is one of those guys who teams don’t want. The only reason he lasted in NY as long as he did was because they couldn’t get a decent deal for him until the Wolves came knocking and offered KAT out of financial desperation. Give Leon Rose credit for savvy and patience.

I think we’re at a point where the best move we can make is trading Randle plus the Detroit pick for someone on an equal but expiring contract to free up money next summer to have a chance of re-signing both Naz and NAW (or doing something else). We should accept that Randle isn’t going to walk next summer because no team will offer anything close to the salary he’ll get with his opt in. And since we’re over the second apron, we can’t sign-and-trade him. Therefore, I think it’s imperative that we trade him by the February deadline. This organization can’t afford to carry Randle’s $30 million salary for another year given what it does to the Wolves transactional options relative to what he provides on the court.

[Q-is-here]

It's been a while since this thread was active, but it's given us additional time to see how Finch has tweaked things and utilized different lineups in the past month. And the result is......no improvement on offense whatsoever!

Let's face it, the 8.5 man rotation Finch is deploying simply doesn't have the combination of skill and fit to become a top 10 offense, much less top 15. He's tried all sorts of different lineup combinations in addition to this latest tweak to the starting lineup, but at the end of the day we're stuck where we are and there is no reason to believe that we are suddenly going to vault into a contending-level offense with this group of players and this coach.

Now it's a front office problem to solve. They have one of three options:

1. Fire Finch - I'm skeptical about how coaching changes can affect an NBA offense since so much of it is dependent on the skills of the individual components, but then I look at what Cleveland has done this year compared to last year with nearly 100% the same players and it gives me pause. They went from 18th in 2023-24 to the #1 offense this year. All they did was make a coaching change! I've certainly seen pretty dramatic defensive turnarounds driven primarily by a coaching change, but not sure I've ever seen an offense take this big of a leap year over year with pretty much the same players.

2. Make a trade - Is removing Julius Randle addition by subtraction? Does his style of play have a knock-on effect that negatively impacts other players in a way that you can't discern by just looking at his individual stats? It seems like it to me, but I really don't know. How about subtracting Julius but adding a competent, experienced NBA PG so that we never ask NAW or DDV to fill that role ever again? What would that do to the offense?

3. Do both - I think it's possible this happens by the offseason, but skeptical such drastic change takes place before the trade deadline.

Back to Finch....He's been a good coach for the Wolves, but sometimes a group of guys just need a new voice. I'm neither for or against firing Finch as of right now, but it's fair to say that the Wolves are underperforming expectations and we have multiple guys having down years offensively. How much of that is player personnel/fit vs. scheme/tactics I'm not smart enough to know.

[AbeVigodaLive]

While I agree with your premise... and I think Atkinson is an upgrade...

D. Mitchell missed 27 games last season. Garland missed 25. And Mobley missed 32. The team was 35 - 17 at one point... before finishing 13 - 17 down the stretch with Mitchell out a lot and Mobley missing about 10 games, too.

This year, they've missed a combined 5 games.



And that's what's so worrisome about the Wolves. They've been incredibly healthy this season. All five current starters have played in every game. On a team with basically an 8-man rotation... NOBODY in the rotation has been injured. Only Conley has been out for load management. When was the last time that's happened this late into the season for any team?

[rapsuperstar31]

While I agree with your premise... and I think Atkinson is an upgrade...

D. Mitchell missed 27 games last season. Garland missed 25. And Mobley missed 32. The team was 35 - 17 at one point... before finishing 13 - 17 down the stretch with Mitchell out a lot and Mobley missing about 10 games, too.

This year, they've missed a combined 5 games.



And that's what's so worrisome about the Wolves. They've been incredibly healthy this season. All five current starters have played in every game. On a team with basically an 8-man rotation... NOBODY in the rotation has been injured. Only Conley has been out for load management. When was the last time that's happened this late into the season for any team?

I think part of that, even playing an 8 man rotation only Ant is playing more than 33.6 minutes a night. Only 3 players playing more than 30 minutes per night. The other night, New York played all 5 starters 40 minutes or more. We are 0-4 in games Mike has missed and 19-13 in the games Mike has played in. One more point guard if Rob isn't going to be ready would do wonders for this team. A Tyus Jones, Jose Alverado, hell even 10 minutes of McLauhlin would cut down our turnovers and bring in a few more wins. Donte has been great lately and Naz has been great except for his 3pt percentages and some silly fouls and turnovers. Had Donte and Naz shot around 40% from three all season this team is in the 2-4 in the west range at the moment even without a backup point guard.

[Sundog]

I’m going to disagree with the premise, Q… I think this team has the talent it needs, and will work itself out. After all the ups and downs so far this season, the team is only a 1.5 games out of home court advantage in the playoffs.

I agree desperate times call for desperate measures, but these are not desperate times. I’m fine if there’s a trade that makes the team better, but there’s no need to fire the coach or to dump Julius or Jaden, or whomever, just to make a change.

[FNG]

I’m going to disagree with the premise, Q… I think this team has the talent it needs, and will work itself out. After all the ups and downs so far this season, the team is only a 1.5 games out of home court advantage in the playoffs.

I agree desperate times call for desperate measures, but these are not desperate times. I’m fine if there’s a trade that makes the team better, but there’s no need to fire the coach or to dump Julius or Jaden, or whomever, just to make a change.

Sundog, my opinion about this team vacillates a lot, but after the last two wins, my take is closer to your optimistic one. Lip's premise is undeniable...this offense is not clicking enough. But my guarded optimism is due to:
1) Ant's play the past three games. I think his slow decision making has been a real hindrance early in the season despite his elite shotmaking...moving the ball, shooting or driving to the hoop before the double happens really helps this offense.
2) Finchie's flexibility: I like that he is mixing things up with the starting and closing lineups
3) Donte returning to form...he's looking much more like the guy I watched last season
4)The possible return of Rob. Lots of uncertainty here with his brittleness and lack of experience and size, but this club needs another PG, and he could help. I recall that Tom Creen said not to expect much from him the first half of the season, but then watch out!

We have four winnable games coming up...I'd like to see us 23-17 and in 4th place in a week

[Q-is-here]

I’m going to disagree with the premise, Q… I think this team has the talent it needs, and will work itself out. After all the ups and downs so far this season, the team is only a 1.5 games out of home court advantage in the playoffs.

I agree desperate times call for desperate measures, but these are not desperate times. I’m fine if there’s a trade that makes the team better, but there’s no need to fire the coach or to dump Julius or Jaden, or whomever, just to make a change.

Sundog, my opinion about this team vacillates a lot, but after the last two wins, my take is closer to your optimistic one. Lip's premise is undeniable...this offense is not clicking enough. But my guarded optimism is due to:
1) Ant's play the past three games. I think his slow decision making has been a real hindrance early in the season despite his elite shotmaking...moving the ball, shooting or driving to the hoop before the double happens really helps this offense.
2) Finchie's flexibility: I like that he is mixing things up with the starting and closing lineups
3) Donte returning to form...he's looking much more like the guy I watched last season
4)The possible return of Rob. Lots of uncertainty here with his brittleness and lack of experience and size, but this club needs another PG, and he could help. I recall that Tom Creen said not to expect much from him the first half of the season, but then watch out!

We have four winnable games coming up...I'd like to see us 23-17 and in 4th place in a week

We're nearly halfway through the season, so I guess I feel like we have seen enough peaks and valleys and lineup combinations to draw more of a conclusion. I just don't see further tinkering on that front by Finch as being enough to overcome the lack of fit between the main guys and the lack of strong PG play.

Now in terms of which "drastic" option we should take, I'm more open minded about it. I'm not demanding that Finch gets fired, but he just doesn't have the right personnel to run a flow offense with space and pace using the same 8.5 guys that he's clearly committed to playing. I'm mildly bullish on Dillingham long term, but just not sure how much he can help this season.

[Lipoli390]

Q’s right. We’re half way through the season and the team has been extraordinarily healthy. So we know what we have. I like the recent wins and Ant seems to be out of his funk and finding a way to impact the game again with his elite scoring talent. But even in these recent wins, our offense is still pretty bad. We’ve averaged 109 PPG, which is 22nd in the League. Last season we averaged 113 PPG. The offensive drop off is substantial and reflects the player personnel we have now compared to last season. It doesn’t mean we’re a terrible team. Our defense is still very good, we’re playing a bit better and we’re poised to make the playoffs if we continue to play the way we’ve been playing the past few games and remain healthy. But we simply don’t have the offense to be a title contender like we were last season.

Last season our offense was just good enough to combine with our outstanding defense to make this team a legitimate title contender with the 3rd best record in the West. The KAT trade and Father Time catching up with Mike Conley have combined to take that offense, which was barely good enough, down a couple notches to where it’s no longer good enough. And our defense has lost a little bit as well going from KAT to Randle and losing Slo Mo.

I don’t think replacing Finch is the answer. He’s a terrific coach and I don’t think he’s lost the team’s ear. He’s doing the best he can with the personnel he has. While I think we’d get some addition by subtraction moving on from Randle, it wouldn’t be enough to significantly move the needle this season in my view. We’d have to replace his 20 points per game and there would be a transition period to figure things out during which I think we’d struggle. I still think we should try to move Randle by the February deadline, but I see that as a longer term play not something that will materially improve the Wolves chances of competing for a title or making a playoff run this season.

I see moving Randle as a move to pay dividends next season and beyond as part of transitioning to a team more like the one we were building around Ant before the Gobert trade. I think Rudy can be part of that, but Randle can’t. Ant’s recent play has me even more convinced we can retool quickly and successfully around him. Jaden and Donte are playing better lately as well. I remain bullish on Dilly, TSJ and Minott. I’m intrigued by Clark and my view of Miller has been bolstered by his impressive G-League play this season. I’m also intrigued by the young PG we just signed. In addition, it looks like we’ll have a mid-1st round pick from Detroit either this year or next.

So I’m not depressed or angry about the current Wolves situation. I share TC’s goal of having a sustainable title contender over multiple years. I just don’t think this current roster can satisfy that goal. We even have some proclaiming that Ant can’t be the guy we build around and that we should trade him. I remember fans saying KG couldn’t be the guy. We traded him and the organization went into a 10-year funk. I remember fans saying KAT couldn’t be the guy and that we should trade him. We traded him before this season and predictably we’re back to playing at about the same level as two seasons ago when KAT missed almost the entire season.

Of the three greatest players this franchise has had (KG, KAT, Ant), Ant is probably the best equipped to be the best player on a title contender. The problem is that our front office mistakenly failed to focus on building a team ideally suited to the talents of its best player. That mistake is still correctable. And for that reason, I remain optimistic over the long turn. I’m just not optimistic about this season.