Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 11:25 am
Thanks for starting this thread, FNG. My guess is that the Wolves won’t trade Julius or make any other major trades by the deadline. I actually think it’s more likely they’ll trade NAW by the deadline since, other than Ant or Jaden, he’d yield us the biggest return. It would also avoid the prospect of losing NAW for nothing, which is exactly what would happen in the likely event Julius opts in and we sign Naz.
I haven’t listened to the podcast on our cap situation yet, but here’s the cap situation based on my review:
Projected salary thresholds for next season are (1) $154.6M salary cap; (2) 187.9M luxury tax; (3) $195.9 1st apron; and (4) $207.8M 2nd apron. These are maximums increases under the CBA (10% higher than this season) and could be less.
Keep in mind that 1st apron restrictions, while not quite as bad as 2nd apron limits, are pretty harsh and include among other things: (1) not being able to use the full MLE; (2) not being allowed to take back more than outgoing salary in trades; (3) can’t acquire sign-and-trade players unless doing so moves team below the 1st apron, etc.
Assuming Julius ops in and we pick up Garza’s $2.6 million option, our total payroll will be right around $175 million for a roster of 11 players without Naz. Assuming we sign Naz for around $30 million, that would put our payroll at $205 million, which would put us only $2.8 million below the 2nd apron without NAW and with two roster spots to fill to get to 14. I believe that each vet minimum contract will count $2.08 million against the salary cap. That means would not be able to get our roster to 14 even if we simply signed players to vet minimum deals. Hopefully we’ll be able to sign Naz for closer to $25 million, in which case we’d end up with a total payroll of around $205 million for 14 players without NAW. We’d stay barely under the 2nd apron (assuming the threshold increases by the maximum 10% allowed) but we’d still be over the 1st apron.
I’m not sure what Dane Moore was projecting in his podcast, but the reality is what I’ve provided in this post. Assuming we don’t trade Randle, the best case scenario is keeping Naz at a bargain contract starting at $25 million but losing NAW and unable to make any moves to improve the roster after a season that will likely end with a 5th seed at best. And again, that assumes the cap goes up by the full 10% allowed. Even then, we’d still be over the 1st apron and severely restricted by the CBA both transactionally and financially. If we’re honest with ourselves, keeping Randle and Rudy doesn’t make sense even if Finch thinks it makes sense on the court.
So I’m hoping Finch’s comments are not indicative of an intent to keep Randle. Finch praised KAT a lot last season and yet we traded him before this season. I see no reason to read a lot into Finch’s recent comments about Randle. I think he likes Randle and values Randle’s production as he should. But that doesn’t mean Randle’s a good fit on the court for this team or that it makes sense organizationally to keep him.
As for me, I’d be reluctant to trade Randle this season if it meant giving up the Detroit pick, which now looks destined to be a 1st rounder either this year or next. I think there’s a chance we can trade Randle for less salary without giving up more than a future 2nd round pick. Randle’s a very good player; just not a good fit for us. If we can’t trade Randle this season without giving up the Detroit pick, another future 1st or multiple 2nds, then I’d probably keep Randle and trade NAW by the deadline mainly for draft capital and/or a good PG then I’d hope we can squeeze in under the 2nd apron and hopefully get below the 1st apron by the 2026-27 season. Randle will have more trade value next February as an expiring contract than he has now.
