The 3 picks Utah traded are all guaranteed to be at the end of the draft. They are gambling that the Phoenix unprotected 2031 pick will be much more valuable than any of the 1st rounders they sent out. The Detroit pick would be attractive because it looks to be in the middle of the draft.
Collins is not as strong a player as Randle, but his skillset is different. Randle needs the ball to be effective. Collins can be more of a catch and shoot PF, shooting over 40% on 3s this season. He's still pretty young, too, at 27.
There should be some stat out there that reflects how much a defense respects a player's ability to shoot the 3, regardless of what said player's percentage or volume is. One thing I notice with Randle - and I wonder if the same applies to the lower volume Collins - is that most defenses just don't care if he takes an open 3. They seem to welcome that shot over an Ant drive to the hoop.
Collins is only taking a little over three 3's per game, so how much does he really space the floor and are teams all that worried about him out there?
Naz on the other hand is a high volume 3-point shooter and pretty damn accurate. He creates gravity that Randle doesn't.
I honestly haven't seen Utah play much so I can't speak to the gravity (or lack thereof) that Collins creates, but the whole point of having a PF that can shoot is to open up driving lanes for Ant (and now Dillingham!). But that doesn't happen if teams really don't guard him out there and stay in their defensive shell.
Great point, Q! As everyone knows, I was a huge fan of Collins in his draft class but I’ve soured on him. I agree with you that Collins doesn’t really fit as well as he might appear. And I continue to suspect other issues with him that make him a guy you don’t want on your team.
Agreed I haven't seen enough of Collins to say anything one way or another. Someone needs to score on a bad team, so him having one of his better season on a bad team doesn't really say much. One thing just looking at their stats for the positives of Collins is his playoff stats didn't fall off a cliff like Randle's did. Randle in 15 playoff games averaged 17.1, 9.4 on 34.4% and 28.3% from 3. Similar to Kats playoff declines in half of Kats playoff series. Collins in 29 playoff games averaged less points at 12.6 7.1 rebounds on 51.6% and 35.4% from 3.
I think the biggest difference between Collins and Randle is passing Randle is a much better passer and spacing where Randle likes to charge in and play bully ball, Collins is more threes, lobs, pick and rolls, backcuts, and offensive rebounds. Of course I could be way off on that, just watching a brief highlight video on him.
I will say if Randle opting into his 30.9 million versus Collins opting into his 26.5 is the difference in not losing one of Naz or Naw you would have to go with the Collins bet. I think Randle is the better player, but I cant say that for sure given my knowledge on Collins.
Yeah, Randle is a much more higher usage guy than Collins. But isn't that part of our problem? Randle expects to handle the rock, which takes away touches from ANT. I gotta think that was some of the logic with getting back Randle in the KAT trade - a player who can create, especially at end of games when ANT might get a lot more attention from the opposing team. But, thus far, it has just not worked on the court. Collins is much more a complimentary player than Randle, which is what this team seems to need right now. Hopefully, Dilly grows into that second creator to compliment ANT.
60WinTim wrote: ↑Wed Jan 22, 2025 11:04 am
Yeah, Randle is a much more higher usage guy than Collins. But isn't that part of our problem? Randle expects to handle the rock, which takes away touches from ANT. I gotta think that was some of the logic with getting back Randle in the KAT trade - a player who can create, especially at end of games when ANT might get a lot more attention from the opposing team. But, thus far, it has just not worked on the court. Collins is much more a complimentary player than Randle, which is what this team seems to need right now. Hopefully, Dilly grows into that second creator to compliment ANT.
I wouldn't be completely opposed to a Randle deal involving Collins (although I'm still hoping we can retain the Detroit pick), but I have seen a lot more synergy between Ant and Ju recently, and that's why I want to see Ju stay. Ju is so good at the drive and kick, and until recently it seemed his main targets were Donte (often for a make) and Jaden or NAW (often for a miss ). But all 3 of those players (along with Naz and Mike) are talented at moving to a spot where they will be open for a good look. This is not a skill that Ant has mastered...he too often is motionless when a teammate has the ball, and prefers to generate his own offense. But I've seen a change recently, and Ant seems to be moving more without the ball and Ju has found him for open threes. This is a great development, because Ant is always going to be a better option to shoot a three than any other player on our roster. I think Ju finding Ant for threes has a lot to do with the Wolves averaging 117 PPG the last 6 games, compared to only 110 on the season. That's a big improvement. To me the reasons for the recent resurgence on offense are Naz's terrific 2-way scoring and Ju's drive and kick. Some said it might take a while to incorporate Randle's offensive style into the Wolves offense, and they were right. But things seem to be clicking right now at 117 PPG, and I would be reluctant to rock the boat. I fully recognize that this is a minority opinion here, but I don't know that TC and Finchie would disagree.
60WinTim wrote: ↑Wed Jan 22, 2025 11:04 am
Yeah, Randle is a much more higher usage guy than Collins. But isn't that part of our problem? Randle expects to handle the rock, which takes away touches from ANT. I gotta think that was some of the logic with getting back Randle in the KAT trade - a player who can create, especially at end of games when ANT might get a lot more attention from the opposing team. But, thus far, it has just not worked on the court. Collins is much more a complimentary player than Randle, which is what this team seems to need right now. Hopefully, Dilly grows into that second creator to compliment ANT.
Yes to what you said above Tim!
I have no doubt that Dillingham will grow into a pretty lethal offensive weapon...heck, one that might even rival Ant in a few years. The real question with him is defense and potentially being constantly targeted in the playoffs to the point where he's played off the floor.
But we won't borrow our troubles and just enjoy watching him mature into a more prominent part of our offense in the coming weeks.
60WinTim wrote: ↑Wed Jan 22, 2025 11:04 am
Yeah, Randle is a much more higher usage guy than Collins. But isn't that part of our problem? Randle expects to handle the rock, which takes away touches from ANT. I gotta think that was some of the logic with getting back Randle in the KAT trade - a player who can create, especially at end of games when ANT might get a lot more attention from the opposing team. But, thus far, it has just not worked on the court. Collins is much more a complimentary player than Randle, which is what this team seems to need right now. Hopefully, Dilly grows into that second creator to compliment ANT.
I wouldn't be completely opposed to a Randle deal involving Collins (although I'm still hoping we can retain the Detroit pick), but I have seen a lot more synergy between Ant and Ju recently, and that's why I want to see Ju stay. Ju is so good at the drive and kick, and until recently it seemed his main targets were Donte (often for a make) and Jaden or NAW (often for a miss ). But all 3 of those players (along with Naz and Mike) are talented at moving to a spot where they will be open for a good look. This is not a skill that Ant has mastered...he too often is motionless when a teammate has the ball, and prefers to generate his own offense. But I've seen a change recently, and Ant seems to be moving more without the ball and Ju has found him for open threes. This is a great development, because Ant is always going to be a better option to shoot a three than any other player on our roster. I think Ju finding Ant for threes has a lot to do with the Wolves averaging 117 PPG the last 6 games, compared to only 110 on the season. That's a big improvement. To me the reasons for the recent resurgence on offense are Naz's terrific 2-way scoring and Ju's drive and kick. Some said it might take a while to incorporate Randle's offensive style into the Wolves offense, and they were right. But things seem to be clicking right now at 117 PPG, and I would be reluctant to rock the boat. I fully recognize that this is a minority opinion here, but I don't know that TC and Finchie would disagree.
We need more data. You're right that our offense took a turn for the better recently.
I still have a fundamental problem with our best player being Randle's compliment versus Randle being an Ant compliment. More and more teams are going to do to Ant what Memphis and Wells did, which is face guard him and make the Wolves play 4 on 4. That means Randle is kicking out to others, not Ant.
60WinTim wrote: ↑Wed Jan 22, 2025 11:04 am
Yeah, Randle is a much more higher usage guy than Collins. But isn't that part of our problem? Randle expects to handle the rock, which takes away touches from ANT. I gotta think that was some of the logic with getting back Randle in the KAT trade - a player who can create, especially at end of games when ANT might get a lot more attention from the opposing team. But, thus far, it has just not worked on the court. Collins is much more a complimentary player than Randle, which is what this team seems to need right now. Hopefully, Dilly grows into that second creator to compliment ANT.
I wouldn't be completely opposed to a Randle deal involving Collins (although I'm still hoping we can retain the Detroit pick), but I have seen a lot more synergy between Ant and Ju recently, and that's why I want to see Ju stay. Ju is so good at the drive and kick, and until recently it seemed his main targets were Donte (often for a make) and Jaden or NAW (often for a miss ). But all 3 of those players (along with Naz and Mike) are talented at moving to a spot where they will be open for a good look. This is not a skill that Ant has mastered...he too often is motionless when a teammate has the ball, and prefers to generate his own offense. But I've seen a change recently, and Ant seems to be moving more without the ball and Ju has found him for open threes. This is a great development, because Ant is always going to be a better option to shoot a three than any other player on our roster. I think Ju finding Ant for threes has a lot to do with the Wolves averaging 117 PPG the last 6 games, compared to only 110 on the season. That's a big improvement. To me the reasons for the recent resurgence on offense are Naz's terrific 2-way scoring and Ju's drive and kick. Some said it might take a while to incorporate Randle's offensive style into the Wolves offense, and they were right. But things seem to be clicking right now at 117 PPG, and I would be reluctant to rock the boat. I fully recognize that this is a minority opinion here, but I don't know that TC and Finchie would disagree.
We need more data. You're right that our offense took a turn for the better recently.
I still have a fundamental problem with our best player being Randle's compliment versus Randle being an Ant compliment. More and more teams are going to do to Ant what Memphis and Wells did, which is face guard him and make the Wolves play 4 on 4. That means Randle is kicking out to others, not Ant.
Trading Randle might be mutually exclusive to this fix. It will probably have to be Rob to alleviate this since his speed and handle can really force the issue. The question then becomes if Julius can fit in a Ant-Rob centric offense.
I wouldn't be completely opposed to a Randle deal involving Collins (although I'm still hoping we can retain the Detroit pick), but I have seen a lot more synergy between Ant and Ju recently, and that's why I want to see Ju stay. Ju is so good at the drive and kick, and until recently it seemed his main targets were Donte (often for a make) and Jaden or NAW (often for a miss ). But all 3 of those players (along with Naz and Mike) are talented at moving to a spot where they will be open for a good look. This is not a skill that Ant has mastered...he too often is motionless when a teammate has the ball, and prefers to generate his own offense. But I've seen a change recently, and Ant seems to be moving more without the ball and Ju has found him for open threes. This is a great development, because Ant is always going to be a better option to shoot a three than any other player on our roster. I think Ju finding Ant for threes has a lot to do with the Wolves averaging 117 PPG the last 6 games, compared to only 110 on the season. That's a big improvement. To me the reasons for the recent resurgence on offense are Naz's terrific 2-way scoring and Ju's drive and kick. Some said it might take a while to incorporate Randle's offensive style into the Wolves offense, and they were right. But things seem to be clicking right now at 117 PPG, and I would be reluctant to rock the boat. I fully recognize that this is a minority opinion here, but I don't know that TC and Finchie would disagree.
We need more data. You're right that our offense took a turn for the better recently.
I still have a fundamental problem with our best player being Randle's compliment versus Randle being an Ant compliment. More and more teams are going to do to Ant what Memphis and Wells did, which is face guard him and make the Wolves play 4 on 4. That means Randle is kicking out to others, not Ant.
Trading Randle might be mutually exclusive to this fix. It will probably have to be Rob to alleviate this since his speed and handle can really force the issue. The question then becomes if Julius can fit in a Ant-Rob centric offense.
He might be able to fit somewhat, but it's not ideal. The reason why Naz is so compelling at PF is because he's either setting screens outside the 3-point line, spotting up beyond the 3-point line, or making a move to get down hill quickly. He hardly ever sets up in the mid-range or paint, which is the space we need open to provide Ant and Dillingham driving lanes.
If Randle were a pick and roll big that was a lob threat or volume 3-point shooter, he'd be much more complimentary. But he's not a floor spacer, quick decision maker, or pick and roll big. He's an isolation big that others play off of versus a guy that plays off others.
We need more data. You're right that our offense took a turn for the better recently.
I still have a fundamental problem with our best player being Randle's compliment versus Randle being an Ant compliment. More and more teams are going to do to Ant what Memphis and Wells did, which is face guard him and make the Wolves play 4 on 4. That means Randle is kicking out to others, not Ant.
Trading Randle might be mutually exclusive to this fix. It will probably have to be Rob to alleviate this since his speed and handle can really force the issue. The question then becomes if Julius can fit in a Ant-Rob centric offense.
He might be able to fit somewhat, but it's not ideal. The reason why Naz is so compelling at PF is because he's either setting screens outside the 3-point line, spotting up beyond the 3-point line, or making a move to get down hill quickly. He hardly ever sets up in the mid-range or paint, which is the space we need open to provide Ant and Dillingham driving lanes.
If Randle were a pick and roll big that was a lob threat or volume 3-point shooter, he'd be much more complimentary. But he's not a floor spacer, quick decision maker, or pick and roll big. He's an isolation big that others play off of versus a guy that plays off others.
I'm not terribly optimistic about the fit honestly. I predict he goes to Miami or maybe Detroit when the Jimmy domino falls.
60WinTim wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 7:58 pm
The internet chatter (Ira Windman) thinks the Suns trading their unprotected 2031 1st to Utah for 3 first round picks was done in preparation for a Butler trade.
The only way Butler gets to Phoenix is if Beal waives his no-trade clause. Somebody commented the Lakers is one team Beal would accept. (Ira speculated it is the Bucks).
Toronto wants in on the trade to make it work. Although I can make a deal work when including the Wolves, it's really nothing to get excited about...
So on to a very simple trade proposal that I may have mentioned before:
Randle and the Detroit pick to Utah for Collins and Kessler. Thoughts?
Utah isn't trading Kessler for basically a 1st round pick.
). But all 3 of those players (along with Naz and Mike) are talented at moving to a spot where they will be open for a good look. This is not a skill that Ant has mastered...he too often is motionless when a teammate has the ball, and prefers to generate his own offense. But I've seen a change recently, and Ant seems to be moving more without the ball and Ju has found him for open threes. This is a great development, because Ant is always going to be a better option to shoot a three than any other player on our roster. I think Ju finding Ant for threes has a lot to do with the Wolves averaging 117 PPG the last 6 games, compared to only 110 on the season. That's a big improvement. To me the reasons for the recent resurgence on offense are Naz's terrific 2-way scoring and Ju's drive and kick. Some said it might take a while to incorporate Randle's offensive style into the Wolves offense, and they were right. But things seem to be clicking right now at 117 PPG, and I would be reluctant to rock the boat. I fully recognize that this is a minority opinion here, but I don't know that TC and Finchie would disagree.
