Playoffs discussion

[Q-is-here]

Don't look now but the Wolves have won 9 of their last 13... and every team they beat is .500 or better

But do we trust them against sub-.500 teams? I'm not sure I do yet!

I guess it's good that most West teams are .500 or better!

Ha, good point. We'd be the 5th seed in the East right now with our record.

[FNG]

Okay, in the euphoria of a big win in PHX, I decided to set up my playoffs spreadsheet, which I'll update periodically. Tim is welcome to add his current KOM to this thread also.

OkC, the Lakers, Memphis and Houston should finish well ahead of the rest of the division, so I'm not going to track their wins until we get later in the season (and then mostly to project who we are going to face in the playoffs). But despite Houston's 5-game lead over the logjam behind them, their schedule is so brutal there's a chance someone on the logjam could catch them...maybe the Wolves. Anyway, here is how I'm projecting 5-9 right now:

5. Houston 49 wins
6. Warriors 48 (and the tiebreaker over the Wolves)
7. Wolves 48
8. Clippers 46 (and the tiebreaker likely over Dallas)
9. Dallas 46

Sacramento, Portland, and Phoenix look like they will be battling for the 10th spot, but likely far behind the Wolves. If any of them gets hot and looks like they can challenge us, I'll start tracking their wins too.

Miles to go still, and injuries can change the landscape dramatically. But right now I project the Wolves to be the 7th seed playing the Clippers in the playin. But just like last year, it's very close. Just one Klunker by Houston or an Anti by us could push us up to 5th and a first round match up against the 4th seed.

[Q-is-here]

Okay, in the euphoria of a big win in PHX, I decided to set up my playoffs spreadsheet, which I'll update periodically. Tim is welcome to add his current KOM to this thread also.

OkC, the Lakers, Memphis and Houston should finish well ahead of the rest of the division, so I'm not going to track their wins until we get later in the season (and then mostly to project who we are going to face in the playoffs). But despite Houston's 5-game lead over the logjam behind them, their schedule is so brutal there's a chance someone on the logjam could catch them...maybe the Wolves. Anyway, here is how I'm projecting 5-9 right now:

5. Houston 49 wins
6. Warriors 48 (and the tiebreaker over the Wolves)
7. Wolves 48
8. Clippers 46 (and the tiebreaker likely over Dallas)
9. Dallas 46

Sacramento, Portland, and Phoenix look like they will be battling for the 10th spot, but likely far behind the Wolves. If any of them gets hot and looks like they can challenge us, I'll start tracking their wins too.

Miles to go still, and injuries can change the landscape dramatically. But right now I project the Wolves to be the 7th seed playing the Clippers in the playin. But just like last year, it's very close. Just one Klunker by Houston or an Anti by us could push us up to 5th and a first round match up against the 4th seed.

I will be interested to follow along your and Tim's playoff trackers. I really want us to snag that 6th seed and guarantee ourselves a series, but it's going to be close and it's hard to trust this team.

We really screwed ourselves with all those close losses to inferior teams.

November 10th - Home loss to Miami without Jimmy Butler
November 12th - Away loss at Portland
November 13th - Away loss at Portland
November 21 - Away loss at Toronto
February 1 - Home loss to Washington
February 12 - Home loss to Milwaukee without Giannis or Dame
February 28 - Away loss at Utah

That's not even a full inventory of all the bad losses, but these are probably the most egregious. We'd already be the 6th seed if we simply won 4 out of these 7 games (every NBA team has a few duds) and within striking distance of the 2-5 seeds with the easier schedule ahead.

As it stands though, we can't even call the upcoming schedule easy because we have yet to prove we can consistently beat weaker opponents.

Now here is the good news: We are 25-18 against the West and a pathetic 8-11 against the East. What this means is that we generally match up pretty well and get up to play against Western Conference opponents. That's why I have some amount of cautious optimism that things may click in the playoffs. I don't think we get to the WCF, but I do think we will put up a good fight against anyone we play in a series.

[FNG]

So true, Q...those losses were killers. But I'm trying to keep the most recent loss in perspective. Utah loses a lot of games and plays out of control a lot, but they have some young talent. If I were a Jazz fan, I would have been thinking "we gotta be able to beat this Wolves team on our home court with them missing three starters including their 2 highest scorers and their defensive anchor". That lessens the sting a little for me.

But last night brought back some optimism for me...really loved the way our offense looked despite the missed shots from guys we should be able to rely on. I think we can really finish strong once Rudy comes back. But yeah, to have any chance at that 6th or even 5th seeds (or dare I say even higher if one of the elite 4 suffers some key injuries?), we can't afford to lay any more turds against substandard competition. At any rate, you know Tim and I will be compulsively updating our models to let you all know where we think we stand!

[60WinTim]

I think you are underestimating Houston, FNG. Tankathon has their schedule as middle of the pack. The top 3? Suns, Kings and Lakers.

A couple updates tonight: Maxey left their game tonight with a “back contusion”. George did’t play with a groin problem. Oubre didn’t play with an illness. And Justin Edwards tweaked an ankle at the end of the game. 76ers could be pretty decimated against the Wolves tomorrow night.

The other injury of note: Kyrie left the game tonight with a knee sprain. The Mavs have the potential to be good if their bigs ever return. Kyrie missing time could drop them out of contention for the 6th seed.

[Edit: and now the Mavs lose Hardy to an ankle sprain... ]

[Lipoli390]

Best the Wolves can hope for is 6th. We’re bunched up with several other teams a half game behind the Warriors in 6th. Based on talent, we should finish 6th, which would avoid the play-in. We have an outside shot at 5th, but I don’t see that happening.

[BloopOracle]

Kyrie Irving has a torn ACL, hate that for him but it helps the Wolves

[FNG]

Kyrie Irving has a torn ACL, hate that for him but it helps the Wolves

Yeah, sad news. Dallas has probably fallen into that group battling for 9th and 10th with all the injuries.

I agree with Lip on where we’re most likely to land. But take a look at Houston’s end of year schedule. We could be 5 games back with 10 days to play and still catch them! 5th is not out of the question.

[60WinTim]

Kyrie Irving has a torn ACL, hate that for him but it helps the Wolves

Yeah, sad news. Dallas has probably fallen into that group battling for 9th and 10th with all the injuries.

I agree with Lip on where we’re most likely to land. But take a look at Houston’s end of year schedule. We could be 5 games back with 10 days to play and still catch them! 5th is not out of the question.

While this is not far-fetched, we need the Wolves to start stacking wins against the teams they should beat. Let's do that first, and then see if something better than #6 is possible.

And #6 might be preferred! That would put off a matchup with OKC until the WCF...

[Phenom]

Kyrie Irving has a torn ACL, hate that for him but it helps the Wolves

Yeah, sad news. Dallas has probably fallen into that group battling for 9th and 10th with all the injuries.

I agree with Lip on where we’re most likely to land. But take a look at Houston’s end of year schedule. We could be 5 games back with 10 days to play and still catch them! 5th is not out of the question.

While this is not far-fetched, we need the Wolves to start stacking wins against the teams they should beat. Let's do that first, and then see if something better than #6 is possible.

And #6 might be preferred! That would put off a matchup with OKC until the WCF...

This could open up a chance for Phoenix or even Portland to grab that 10th spot.

The Luka trade looms large here. Without it, Dallas and LA would both be looking shaky. Now LA is rolling. Their injury margin is still pretty thin, however.