Lakers heavy betting favorites over Wolves

[FNG]

They can create bias "slight rigging" but not certainty. So I agree with Cool. I think of course bias will be there, it always is to some extent. I doubt they outright refuse to let the Wolves win at any cost though, a complete rig job. I think that risk of being so obvious it's fixed is too costly to do. But still, a favorable whistle to LA is still a nice edge for them to have no doubt.

I think we all agree there will be bias. It's the source of the bias that we differ on. I don't believe there will be any direct pressure applied by the league office or refs association (the union) toward the refs assigned to the games.

I do think there is bias that will play itself out in split second 50/50 calls made by individual officials. Abe provides an example of how their internal calculus may work. It's probably mostly at the subconscious level.

Yeah, I agree with this. The Lakers are going to get more than their share of favorable calls, but a lot of the reason is that Luka, James and even Reaves are just damn good at drawing fouls. Ant has gotten much better this season also, and it's one of the reasons I think he finished top 10 in free throw attempts...despite leading the league in 3-point makes! One thing I'm certain of...Wolves fans are going to whine about the Lakers' stars getting calls, and Laker fans are going to whine about Ant getting calls. It's what we do as fans!

I'm not a conspiracy guy, and I agree that the league has little power to influence what the refs do. But let me throw out a conspiracy theory that actually could benefit our Wolves. The big bookmakers are really sweating out this series...they make their money on getting even action on both sides and living off the vig, but this one is not working out for them. Almost no pundit is picking the Wolves, and the Lakers are almost a 2 to 1 favorite now to take the series. That is an absurd number that doesn't reflect how close this series should be, but the bookies are desperate to draw some more Wolves action and it's not working...they stand to lose an enormous amount of money if the Lakers win the series. So let's say some disreputable mafia bookie is concerned he might lose 10's of millions. Might he approach an aging referee assigned to game 7 and with little runway left in his career and offer him $1 million to help the Wolves win? Not likely, but I find an underworld scenario like that involving just one referee more plausible than an NBA scheme that would require multiple parties.

[Coolbreeze44]

You guys are a bunch of Nervous Nellies!

[Coolbreeze44]

They can create bias "slight rigging" but not certainty. So I agree with Cool. I think of course bias will be there, it always is to some extent. I doubt they outright refuse to let the Wolves win at any cost though, a complete rig job. I think that risk of being so obvious it's fixed is too costly to do. But still, a favorable whistle to LA is still a nice edge for them to have no doubt.

I think we all agree there will be bias. It's the source of the bias that we differ on. I don't believe there will be any direct pressure applied by the league office or refs association (the union) toward the refs assigned to the games.

I do think there is bias that will play itself out in split second 50/50 calls made by individual officials. Abe provides an example of how their internal calculus may work. It's probably mostly at the subconscious level.

Yeah, I agree with this. The Lakers are going to get more than their share of favorable calls, but a lot of the reason is that Luka, James and even Reaves are just damn good at drawing fouls.

FNG, I see this as a chicken or the egg thing. Do they get favorable calls because they are damn good at drawing fouls? Or are they damn good at drawing fouls because they play in LA? Lebron and Luka would draw fouls no matter where they play, but I think it gets exacerbated even more because of where they play.

[Coolbreeze44]

Question for the anti conspiracy guys: If and when we ultimately get jobbed in this series, is your stance going to continue to be that it's more human nature than overt? I don't want to hear you whining about the referees if the LA screw job unfolds.

[Wolvesfan21]

Question for the anti conspiracy guys: If and when we ultimately get jobbed in this series, is your stance going to continue to be that it's more human nature than overt? I don't want to hear you whining about the referees if the LA screw job unfolds.

If say they get 2-1 or so on FT attempts on the series with a lot of non calls going our way and ticky tack calls going theirs I will call BS. It just depends on how it looks. Maybe I just quit watching the NBA if it's plainly overt. That is the ultimate risk of rigging games. We also won't know why/who/how it happened unless we get another tell all in 20 years on Netflix.

[Q-is-here]

I think we all agree there will be bias. It's the source of the bias that we differ on. I don't believe there will be any direct pressure applied by the league office or refs association (the union) toward the refs assigned to the games.

I do think there is bias that will play itself out in split second 50/50 calls made by individual officials. Abe provides an example of how their internal calculus may work. It's probably mostly at the subconscious level.

Yeah, I agree with this. The Lakers are going to get more than their share of favorable calls, but a lot of the reason is that Luka, James and even Reaves are just damn good at drawing fouls.

FNG, I see this as a chicken or the egg thing. Do they get favorable calls because they are damn good at drawing fouls? Or are they damn good at drawing fouls because they play in LA? Lebron and Luka would draw fouls no matter where they play, but I think it gets exacerbated even more because of where they play.

The data doesn't back up that the Laker uniform causes more fouls to be drawn. You can't look at a guy like Reaves since he's only played for LAL. But let's look at some of the other guys that have come and gone recently, including some of their current players:

Career FTA by team per 100 possessions:
LeBron Cleveland/Miami = 11.0; LAL = 8.0

Rui Hachimura Washington = 4.1; LAL = 3.3

Jaxson Hayes Pelicans = 6.9; LAL = 4.4

Anthony Davis Pelicans = 10.0; LAL = 10.1

DLO Minnesota = 5.3; Brooklyn = 4.7, Golden State = 6.5; LAL = 4.2

Doncic's FTAs with the Lakers has gone up as compared to Dallas this season, but the sample size of games is pretty small so far whereas the others above involve multiple seasons of data. Dorian Finney-Smith on the other hand is having a career-low year in FTAs per 100 possessions with LAL, but again, it's a small sample size.

Bottom line is that I don't see wearing the Laker jersey inflating player's FTAs over large sample sizes. I do think individual skill, reputation and "street cred" with the refs carries over as individuals, so guys like LeBron, Doncic, and AD are going to average a bunch of FTAs no matter where they play.

And Reaves, as annoying as his foul-baiting is, will get those calls elsewhere, with SGA being a case in point of a successful foul baiter in a smaller market "flyover" country team.

[Coolbreeze44]

Question for the anti conspiracy guys: If and when we ultimately get jobbed in this series, is your stance going to continue to be that it's more human nature than overt? I don't want to hear you whining about the referees if the LA screw job unfolds.

If say they get 2-1 or so on FT attempts on the series with a lot of non calls going our way and ticky tack calls going theirs I will call BS. It just depends on how it looks. Maybe I just quit watching the NBA if it's plainly overt. That is the ultimate risk of rigging games. We also won't know why/who/how it happened unless we get another tell all in 20 years on Netflix.

I think you have a good outlook on this. I like that you have an open mind and are willing to question irregularities.

[Coolbreeze44]

Yeah, I agree with this. The Lakers are going to get more than their share of favorable calls, but a lot of the reason is that Luka, James and even Reaves are just damn good at drawing fouls.

FNG, I see this as a chicken or the egg thing. Do they get favorable calls because they are damn good at drawing fouls? Or are they damn good at drawing fouls because they play in LA? Lebron and Luka would draw fouls no matter where they play, but I think it gets exacerbated even more because of where they play.

The data doesn't back up that the Laker uniform causes more fouls to be drawn. You can't look at a guy like Reaves since he's only played for LAL. But let's look at some of the other guys that have come and gone recently, including some of their current players:

Career FTA by team per 100 possessions:
LeBron Cleveland/Miami = 11.0; LAL = 8.0

Rui Hachimura Washington = 4.1; LAL = 3.3

Jaxson Hayes Pelicans = 6.9; LAL = 4.4

Anthony Davis Pelicans = 10.0; LAL = 10.1

DLO Minnesota = 5.3; Brooklyn = 4.7, Golden State = 6.5; LAL = 4.2

Doncic's FTAs with the Lakers has gone up as compared to Dallas this season, but the sample size of games is pretty small so far whereas the others above involve multiple seasons of data. Dorian Finney-Smith on the other hand is having a career-low year in FTAs per 100 possessions with LAL, but again, it's a small sample size.

Bottom line is that I don't see wearing the Laker jersey inflating player's FTAs over large sample sizes. I do think individual skill, reputation and "street cred" with the refs carries over as individuals, so guys like LeBron, Doncic, and AD are going to average a bunch of FTAs no matter where they play.

And Reaves, as annoying as his foul-baiting is, will get those calls elsewhere, with SGA being a case in point of a successful foul baiter in a smaller market "flyover" country team.

Over the last five years, the Los Angeles Lakers have had the largest free throw attempt differential, attempting 3.5 more free throws per game than their opponents. The Los Angeles Lakers had a free throw attempt differential of 229 for the season.

[Q-is-here]

FNG, I see this as a chicken or the egg thing. Do they get favorable calls because they are damn good at drawing fouls? Or are they damn good at drawing fouls because they play in LA? Lebron and Luka would draw fouls no matter where they play, but I think it gets exacerbated even more because of where they play.

The data doesn't back up that the Laker uniform causes more fouls to be drawn. You can't look at a guy like Reaves since he's only played for LAL. But let's look at some of the other guys that have come and gone recently, including some of their current players:

Career FTA by team per 100 possessions:
LeBron Cleveland/Miami = 11.0; LAL = 8.0

Rui Hachimura Washington = 4.1; LAL = 3.3

Jaxson Hayes Pelicans = 6.9; LAL = 4.4

Anthony Davis Pelicans = 10.0; LAL = 10.1

DLO Minnesota = 5.3; Brooklyn = 4.7, Golden State = 6.5; LAL = 4.2

Doncic's FTAs with the Lakers has gone up as compared to Dallas this season, but the sample size of games is pretty small so far whereas the others above involve multiple seasons of data. Dorian Finney-Smith on the other hand is having a career-low year in FTAs per 100 possessions with LAL, but again, it's a small sample size.

Bottom line is that I don't see wearing the Laker jersey inflating player's FTAs over large sample sizes. I do think individual skill, reputation and "street cred" with the refs carries over as individuals, so guys like LeBron, Doncic, and AD are going to average a bunch of FTAs no matter where they play.

And Reaves, as annoying as his foul-baiting is, will get those calls elsewhere, with SGA being a case in point of a successful foul baiter in a smaller market "flyover" country team.

Over the last five years, the Los Angeles Lakers have had the largest free throw attempt differential, attempting 3.5 more free throws per game than their opponents. The Los Angeles Lakers had a free throw attempt differential of 229 for the season.

But that doesn't mean it's the Laker jersey causing players to shoot more free throws, as I outlined above.

Lebron and AD were perennially among the top players in FTAs per season BEFORE they joined the Lakers. So if you take two of the top foul drawers in the game and put them on the same team, then it doesn't require a conspiracy theory to figure out why their team may have a significant free throw differential.

[Phenom]

I know just about everyone under the Sun has almost no faith in playoff Julius but is there something to him having accepted a different role and level of responsibility with this team? He still needs to score but doesn't need to hunt shots and has shown an understanding of that, I think.

This is probably the most overlooked aspect of the analysis I have heard to this point.

I know, I know. Just you wait Phenom, you'll see.